My TurN Raise

[hot tub man # 1]

30-60 at Hawwian Gardens. One limper to me and I raise with 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Three people cold call behind me, and both blinds call.

Flop:2 /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

A little player backround. The BB is on megatilt, maybe as bad as I have ever seen. Last two hands he bet out on the turn and river and auto mucked when called. Also I had two very solid players coldcall the raise behind me. These were the player on my immediate left, and the button.

So all check to me. and I decide to check cause hell, one of these guys probably has a dang queen. I think its close here. Everyone checks behind.

Turn: 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, bringing the rainbow.

Megetilt now bets out from the BB, I raise, and the button (solid as a rock and respects my play) coldcalls 120. BB calls.

River: 8

BB checks, I check, button bets, BB reluctantly calls, I fold. Comments?

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Tub Man:

Some comments below:

I had two very solid players coldcall the raise behind me. These were the player on my immediate left, and the button.

Solid players very rarely make this call. They usually fold and sometimes reraise, with calling coming in third. Do you understand why?

So all check to me. and I decide to check cause hell, one of these guys probably has a dang queen. I think its close here. Everyone checks behind.

It's not close. If you had two kings and there was an ace on board then it would be close. But not with two tens and a queen on board due to all the overcards to a ten that you need to put pressure on in case your hand is good.

Your fold on the river is probably correct. He should have bet a straight draw on the flop so the 8 probably didn;t help him. But to call two bets cold on the turn he almost has to have you beat right there.

Best wishes,
Mason

[acewithaface]

I think u missed a bet on the flop, and that way you would know where everyone is. But you are very likely beat as the story goes..

[bruce]

I was unaware of the existense of any solid players at Hawaiian Gardens, except perhaps myself.

[Gabe]

I had two very solid players coldcall the raise behind me. These were the player on my immediate left, and the button.

Solid players very rarely make this call. They usually fold and sometimes reraise, with calling coming in third. Do you understand why?

With the early limper already in and the player he described in the BB, there are more hands the usual these players may call with.

He should have bet a straight draw on the flop...

Do you think this is true if he thought the maniac in the BB would most likely check-raise?

[hot tub man # 1]

I agree I totally blew it on the flop, and that was pretty much the point of my post. I had been running terrible, and was perhaps in the mind set that, "somebody has to have a queen."

Masons point about the having to bet because so many overcards can hurt my hand is key, esspecially since the pot is so big. It kind of goes along with the concept that when you raise out the blind with kings and the ace comes, you dont really need to bet because there are not many turn cards that will change the lead. However, it would be more likely correct t0 bet out with jacks or tens with the ace out because of the overcards that can fall.

I think on the turn I have a clear raise. It beats calling the turn and river which I would have to do agaist this oppenent, and I can shut out those who would normally call for a gutshot because of the size of the pot.

The button had pocket 4s, and made his set on the turn. The big blind had 79 of spades and pais off with his 9. if I betr the flop I win, the button would not have peeled.

Also, the button was a solid player, and I think he has a call with the 4s knowing it is going to be a 7 or 8 way pot. Another reason I bet was because I thought AQ was one of the few hands the player to my left would call me with but not reraise.

By the way Bruce I know who you are and you are only solid when you are winning. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Ed Miller]

Do you think this is true if he thought the maniac in the BB would most likely check-raise?

I think so, as long as BB is willing to checkraise without a Queen. The pot is large, and cleaning up your J and T outs is important.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Gabe:

Under the conditions that you give, I do agree that a solid player is a little more likely to make the call, but not that much. Calling the two bets cold will still come in third.

Maniac or no maniac, he will bet the draw most every time. Also, if the player in the big blind really was a maniac, then there is a good chance he will come out betting. If he doesn't, then for whatever reason, he may have decided to be done with the hand. It's my experience that maniacs usually don't think as strategically as you indicate.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Louie Landale]

Malmuth has a good point: basically you gain a LOT by betting when TT is the best hand; but lets forget that for now.

The chances someone has a Q behind you is NOT the over-riding factor here. The problem is that you are very likely to call if its bet. So you end up putting in that bet either way. Betting gains a BUNCH over checking if you are very confident nobody is going to raise you without a Q. Thus, if they have a Q you lose 1 bet if you bet but if you check you end up being faced with awkward call on the turn.

The last thing you want is someone betting a gut draw (KJ) and someone else smartly raising with A9, when they wouldn't raise it against you.

Thus your bet "gains information" but more importantly "causes your opponents to play predictably". This is true against most solid-on-the-passive side players. Even if you figure you are a 3:1 dog betting makes a bunch of sense.

- Louie

[elysium]

hi hot
the solid cold-callers......it looks like AJs and A9s or 88 to JJ. you're not likely against ABC here. the buttojn may have JTs but you hold a T so there aren't a lot of ways JT is possible. i'll say this though, the button's cold-call on the turn has the specter of KQs. that's what it looks like. hmmmm......

ok, on the flop hot, you should bet out into the two remaining opponents. why? to get this hand heads up. you correctly folded on the river because of the over-caller, but you easily have a call heads up against the button. you should be able to clearly see that your haolding against this board only works heads up. the thinking on the flop should be 'heads-up or fold'. a bet on the flop is your cheapest opportunity to get heads-up, and it would have well been worth the effort to do so. if you got raised, you should have only called if your call closed the action. if the BB reraised the button for example, you wouldn't be posting this hand and you would have walked away knowing that you did the right thing.