Rating Baseball Players (Started Reading Bill James Stuff)

[adios]

I went to a new Borders store that opened up close to my home last Saturday with my wife. Saw a Bill James book (forget the exact title) that rated baseball players through the year 2000. I saw a nice comfy chair that was open so I grabbed the book and started leafing through it. Sometime ago I posted a list of my all time greatest players and in right field I had Roberto Clemente. Andy duely trashed this pick (in a nice way) /images/graemlins/smile.gif and stated who Bill James had selected. So the first thing I did was find right fielders. After reading his description of Clemente I immediately knew where I differed greatly from James. I rate defensive ability much higher than he does. In his description of Clemente he acknowledges his great defensive ability particularly his throwing arm. Then he, James, gives an analysis of why defensive ability like Clemente's can be overrated. Basically he states that something like throwing out a runner going from 1st to 3rd on a single to right doesn't come up that much and it doesn't impact wins and losses as much as one might think. After reviewing many of his ratings it followed the same theme basically which was that many ball players make routine plays easily and most plays are routine. As I left Borders I was grumbling about a guy who posts on the 2+2 forum, to my wife, always beating me over the head about this Bill James guy. However, it did make me think and I'm not sure now. BTW Roberto Clemente was no slouch at at the plate either. So how important is defense in rating baseball players anyway? James also had a very interesting discussion about Ozzie Smith and the importance of defensive ability for a short stop.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Tom,

I'm not a big fan of baseball anymore but I'd say defense by a shortstop is a lot more improtant than defense by a right fielder just based on number of times they touch the ball and when they touch the ball it usually matters (a line drive base hit to right field is handled about the same by most outfielders), while a shortstop can make a big impact getting to balls others couldn't.

~ Rick

[adios]

I agree totally. Unless I'm misinterpreting James he states that the impact of a superior shortstop getting to balls others couldn't is overrated. In the book I read a portion of he cites statistics regarding shortstop assists. I believe the average number is something like 28% i.e. the shortstop during a season makes about 28% of the team's assists. He does point out that Ozzie Smith made more assists than average but it wasn't that much above average. He also pointed out that a player from the past named Dal Maxvill, who preeceded Smith, had even more. He wasn't dissing Smith but my take was that he feels many baseball fans overrate that ability in a shortstop among others and in general overrate defensive ability. For instance I'm not sure if he still does, but in the book I looked at he rates Cal Ripken I believe 3rd on the shortstop list and Ozzie 7th I believe. Perhaps others disagree but I think Cal Ripken was OK in the field but not outstanding. I know Ripken's power numbers were better than Smith's at the plate.

[andyfox]

Ideas about fielding are in a state of flux right now. Fielding has always been the hardest thing to get a handle on. At first people judged shortstops by fielding percetage. Then they started to look at range factor. But range factor can be misleading. For example, let's say you play shortstop for the 2002 Arizona Diamondbacks. Their two top pitchers strike out 10 men per nine innings and are fly ball pitchers. Compare that with the Atlanta Braves: their two top pitchers stike out only 5 men per nine innings and are ground ball pitchers. There are going to be a lot more ground ball chances for the Atlanta shortstop than for the Arizona shortstop.

Clemente did have a great arm and threw out a lot of guys, but he also made a very high number of throwing errors. Clemente didn't walk very much and didn't have the power of other right fielders. A great player indeed, but nowhere near number one in right field.

[adios]

James did mention the Cardinals excellent pitching staff as one reason why Maxvill could have had such a high number of assists in the stretch he discussed. What I'm getting out of the James analysis is that a player that makes the "routine" plays very,very consistently in the field (I concede "routine" means different things to different people) is not that much less valuable defensively than a great defensive player. I'd add something about errors. There are errors and then there are errors. An error made when the score is 9-0 in a regular season game isn't that meaningful. Bill Buckner's error in the Mets. vs. Red Sox World Series was a monumental error. Also there are great plays out in the field and then there are great plays. Personally I remember the Indians played the Marlins in the World Series basically Omar Vizquel saved game 6 with a key play in the field. As an aside I told my wife after game 6 that it would go down the bottom of the 9th in game 7 with the Indians ahead by a run and it would be on Mr. Excitement (Jose Mesa) to save the game. Sigh....

You don't want a guy you knicknamed Mr. Excitement as your closer.

[John Cole]

The Oakland A's calculated that by replacing a good defensive center fielder with a lesser one they would lose seven runs per year. Although it might be argued those seven runs could decide seven games, the A's felt the difference so insignificant that they replaced the good fielder with a better hitter.

BTW,

One year Ripken made an astounding three errors at shortstop; in two other years he made a total of seven each year. I think James has Ripkin about right.

John

[andyfox]

Jeter has a terrible range factor and James, despite disparaging range factors in his latest work (Nap Lajoie shows up as the greatest second baseman ever on the basis of his defnesive work dones when he was over 40 years old), rates Jeter a D+. Yet, you have a point: the play Jeter made when he made the backhand flip on the first base line won the Yankees the American League pennant that year.

A lot of subjective stuff can be baloney, but Jeter is a player who seemingly never mucks up when the money's on the line, and comes through with big plays (the relay to home on the ball off the wall in the Mets World Series; the tumbling catch into the stands) when it's winning time.

Guys called Mr. Excitement usually earn that moniker, as to guys called Mr. October.