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View Full Version : 87s on button short stacks on bubble, other short stack in BB ($10)

betgo
12-30-2005, 11:10 AM
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

SB (t4860)
BB (t710)
UTG (t1635)
Hero (t795)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO folds.

Push or fold?
12-30-2005, 11:12 AM
Clear push.

Now stop being a cheapass and go buy SNGPT.
betgo
12-30-2005, 11:15 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Clear push.

Now stop being a cheapass and go buy SNGPT.

[/ QUOTE ]
What's SNGPT?
12-30-2005, 11:17 AM
:-)

Here you go. (http://www.sitngo-analyzer.com/) It is a calculator that tells you the EV of pushing or folding in situations like this based on your opponents calling ranges and chip stacks.
betgo
12-30-2005, 11:22 AM
[ QUOTE ]
:-)

Here you go. (http://www.sitngo-analyzer.com/) It is a calculator that tells you the EV of pushing or folding in situations like this based on your opponents calling ranges and chip stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know the push is chip EV+, but this is a bubble situation, so my main concern is that the other short stack busts out before I do.
12-30-2005, 11:45 AM
Plain and simple, this is a +$EV push, not just a +cEV push. You and him are about even, which is even more of a reason to push IMO. Fold here and you give him another chance to take the lead. This push only becomes -$EV if you think he will call with more than 40% (22+,A2+,K2+,Q9o+,Q5s+,JTo,J8s+,T9s) of hands, which is more likely to happen at the next blind level when half his stack is in the blinds. As it is he's still got what, like 4BB left if he folds?
betgo
12-30-2005, 12:06 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Plain and simple, this is a +$EV push, not just a +cEV push. You and him are about even, which is even more of a reason to push IMO. Fold here and you give him another chance to take the lead. This push only becomes -$EV if you think he will call with more than 40% (22+,A2+,K2+,Q9o+,Q5s+,JTo,J8s+,T9s) of hands, which is more likely to happen at the next blind level when half his stack is in the blinds. As it is he's still got what, like 4BB left if he folds?

[/ QUOTE ]

He called with K8o. Aside from the fact that I was dominated, this leads me to believe that he felt pot committed and was calling with atleast 50% of his hands.
12-30-2005, 12:10 PM
If he was calling with K6+,A6+,22+, that's still just a 20% range.
betgo
12-30-2005, 12:25 PM
[ QUOTE ]
If he was calling with K6+,A6+,22+, that's still just a 20% range.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he is calling with K8o, he is probably calling with suited broadway cards, suited aces, and maybe some other hands. But your right. That still is only maybe 30%.
45suited
12-30-2005, 12:33 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Clear push.

Now stop being a cheapass and go buy SNGPT.

[/ QUOTE ]

How has the bigstack SB been playing up to this point? If he's been playing properly, I'll often fold in spots like this for four reasons:

1) BB is almost certain to not get a walk

2) SB can take out BB for me

3) If SB has loose calling standards, obviously I'd prefer to not have him call me when I have 8 high

4) I am not the shortstack