SNGPT says it's negEV....

PP $22, I plugged in CO pushing instead of raising, SnGPT says I should be folding QQ to a maniacal push range, and KK to a loose push range....what do you guys think?


PartyPoker, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com (http://www.pregopoker.com/hhconv/convert)

CO (t2670)
Hero (t915)
SB (t4135)
BB (t280)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="red">CO raises t520</font>, <font color="red"> Hero raises 915 (all in) </font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="red"> BB calls 130 </font>, CO calls t395

Well it depends on what range you put him of course. You need to be extremely tight there, BUT if you expect the small stack to come along it changes things, by a LOT.

[Sciolist]

I'd play this, I'd rather have a stack that can compete for first. Coming third doesn't mean a great deal. If CO wins, he'll likely be knocking BB out too, so you'd get ITM anyway...

I'd be mad pissed if I folded this and BB ended up doubling up as a result. Call!

[ QUOTE ]
I'd play this, I'd rather have a stack that can compete for first. Coming third doesn't mean a great deal.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get this. If something is -$EV it's -$EV. It means *don't do it*. And if you believe you should do it your calculations or your assumptions must be wrong.

[Sciolist]

CEV doesn't mean everything, it missed out on a lot of variables.

Look at the raiser's mindset. Raiser knows that BB will call because the blind is half his stack. He also knows you'll fold anything to make the money because BB is about to get knocked out. So if he raises, it will be his 2 cards verses BB's random 2 cards. I'd be slightly worried about raising into the big stack, but apparently he wasn't, so he probably has a slightly better than average raising hand. I'd put him on any A7+, K10+, Q10+, any pair&gt;6. From his point of view, I agree with the raise. He's holding a better than average hand verses one random hand, which he can assume is average.

For your mindset, you have to think this through. You are way ahead of most of the hands he could raise with, and only behind to KK, AA, and only slightly ahead of AK. You're looking to double up, and I see this as the perfect opportunity. The only way I fold here is if raiser has been a rock, only raising high pockets or AK.

With only 900 chips, if you don't call this, there is a good chance you're third place.

The three way pot isn't great, but only 280*3 of it will go to the BB if he wins and you can still almost double up. If the BB had a big enough stack to hurt you, he has a big enough stack to fold to 2 all-ins.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
PP $22, I plugged in CO pushing instead of raising, SnGPT says I should be folding QQ to a maniacal push range, and KK to a loose push range....what do you guys think?


PartyPoker, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com (http://www.pregopoker.com/hhconv/convert)

CO (t2670)
Hero (t915)
SB (t4135)
BB (t280)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="red">CO raises t520</font>, <font color="red"> Hero raises 915 (all in) </font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="red"> BB calls 130 </font>, CO calls t395

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a lot of stuff going on here, and a lot of the replies don't make much sense to me.

First, depending on how CO has been playing the default "maniac" range of 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs is probably considerably too tight. If big stack is passive, CO might raise about top 50% here, being happy to go in as a slight favorite with BB's random hand to eliminate him.

Second, there's a weakness to the analysis here that falls into the "ultra-short stack" category. If you fold, SnGPT assumes BB will also fold. This isn't a good assumption here, since BB will call a lot of the time, and that has important consequences for this bubble hand.

Since he's more or less out if he folds, and he's probably near 50/50 to double up or bust if he calls, then the analysis isn't considering the 50% chance that he doubles if you fold. This lowers your "Fold EV" quite a bit, since we're on the bubble.

Therefore, I think the analysis is overtightening your call range here due to the aforementioned effects. I call the QQ in practice, although I think I could possibly be convinced otherwise if the analysis was expanded to include the BB's call properly.

Considering action behind your fold is in the plans for improving SnGPT, but it's kind of a complex thing to do it well.

eastbay

[ZeroPointMachine]

This is an auto fold. Yes, you are well ahead of his range, but you have to understand that when you lose here you are losing $11.50 in equity. When you win here you only have $15.00 equity in the tourney. If cutoff takes out the short stack your equity jumps up to $12.65.

Sometimes you are going to make the money as a short stack. This is not a crime. Trying to hard to avoid it is just giving money away.

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PP $22, I plugged in CO pushing instead of raising, SnGPT says I should be folding QQ to a maniacal push range, and KK to a loose push range....what do you guys think?


PartyPoker, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com (http://www.pregopoker.com/hhconv/convert)

CO (t2670)
Hero (t915)
SB (t4135)
BB (t280)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="red">CO raises t520</font>, <font color="red"> Hero raises 915 (all in) </font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="red"> BB calls 130 </font>, CO calls t395

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a lot of stuff going on here, and a lot of the replies don't make much sense to me.

First, depending on how CO has been playing the default "maniac" range of 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs is probably considerably too tight. If big stack is passive, CO might raise about top 50% here, being happy to go in as a slight favorite with BB's random hand to eliminate him.

Second, there's a weakness to the analysis here that falls into the "ultra-short stack" category. If you fold, SnGPT assumes BB will also fold. This isn't a good assumption here, since BB will call a lot of the time, and that has important consequences for this bubble hand.

Since he's more or less out if he folds, and he's probably near 50/50 to double up or bust if he calls, then the analysis isn't considering the 50% chance that he doubles if you fold. This lowers your "Fold EV" quite a bit, since we're on the bubble.

Therefore, I think the analysis is overtightening your call range here due to the aforementioned effects. I call the QQ.

Considering action behind your fold is in the plans for improving SnGPT, but it's kind of a complex thing to do it well.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand how you can expand CO range when he is pushing 17+BB into the big stack. I also think BB has much less than 50% chance of doubling up with his random hand against CO's range.

I do agree that there are many circumstances where SNGPT over states your fold equity and this leads to misleading situations. Unfortunately, most of these situations involve calculating future actions and get complicated very quickly.

Wouldn't the fact that BB could be eliminated a large percentage of the time if you stay out of the hand actually increase your fold equity in this case.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an auto fold. Yes, you are well ahead of his range, but you have to understand that when you lose here you are losing $11.50 in equity. When you win here you only have $15.00 equity in the tourney. If cutoff takes out the short stack your equity jumps up to $12.65.

Sometimes you are going to make the money as a short stack. This is not a crime. Trying to hard to avoid it is just giving money away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to justify that with something more than an assertion?

Here's my expanded analysis:

I like the $EV call number from SnGPT of 22.6% because BB will almost certainly fold, hoping you will bust. SB isn't going to call without a monster.

If you fold, there are several possibilities. Let's start by assuming that SB is a $22 weakie and will fold.

Then let's assume that BB always calls on pot odds, and is 50/50 in the hand. If he busts, your equity is 25.3%, if he doubles, your equity is 18.6%, the mean of which is 21.9%.

22.6% &gt; 21.9%, so it looks like a call with those assumptions.

If BB calls sometimes and folds, sometimes, then the fold equity is a blend of 21.9% and the SnGPT number of 23.0%. This implies that the breakeven point is BB folding 63% of the time. That seems high, although this is a $22 so anything is possible. In any case, it seems a lot closer than "auto fold" to me. How do you arrive at "auto fold"?

eastbay

How about just flat calling and folding to a CO bet with an overcard flop?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't understand how you can expand CO range when he is pushing 17+BB into the big stack.


[/ QUOTE ]

Without any more information I consider the raise to be weakness (I'm better than BB but I want a way to get out if SB picks something up.)

[ QUOTE ]

I also think BB has much less than 50% chance of doubling up with his random hand against CO's range.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well clearly this depends on point 1.

[ QUOTE ]

I do agree that there are many circumstances where SNGPT over states your fold equity and this leads to misleading situations. Unfortunately, most of these situations involve calculating future actions and get complicated very quickly.


[/ QUOTE ]

True.

[ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't the fact that BB could be eliminated a large percentage of the time if you stay out of the hand actually increase your fold equity in this case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well first of all I don't think it's a large percentage of the time. Second, no, not by much, since if BB folds his 150 chips away, he's darn near busted anyway.

eastbay

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is an auto fold. Yes, you are well ahead of his range, but you have to understand that when you lose here you are losing $11.50 in equity. When you win here you only have $15.00 equity in the tourney. If cutoff takes out the short stack your equity jumps up to $12.65.

Sometimes you are going to make the money as a short stack. This is not a crime. Trying to hard to avoid it is just giving money away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to justify that with something more than an assertion?

Here's my expanded analysis:

I like the $EV call number from SnGPT of 22.6% because BB will almost certainly fold, hoping you will bust. SB isn't going to call without a monster.

If you fold, there are several possibilities. Let's start by assuming that SB is a $22 weakie and will fold.

Then let's assume that BB always calls on pot odds, and is 50/50 in the hand. If he busts, your equity is 25.3%, if he doubles, your equity is 18.6%, the mean of which is 21.9%.

22.6% &gt; 21.9%, so it looks like a call with those assumptions.

If BB calls sometimes and folds, sometimes, then the fold equity is a blend of 21.9% and the SnGPT number of 23.0%. This implies that the breakeven point is BB folding 63% of the time. That seems high, although this is a $22 so anything is possible. In any case, it seems a lot closer than "auto fold" to me. How do you arrive at "auto fold"?

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, first of all I'm half asleep and misread the HH. I thought CO pushed. /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif

However, I still think your range for CO is too large given the big stack in the SB. CO has a hand that he likes against the small stack and I doubt it is T8s. Estimating how often the BB calls is of course a guess at best in a 22.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

Well, first of all I'm half asleep and misread the HH. I thought CO pushed. /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif


[/ QUOTE ]

That's ok, I thought he minraised. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[ QUOTE ]

However, I still think your range for CO is too large given the big stack in the SB.


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe right.

[ QUOTE ]

CO has a hand that he likes against the small stack and I doubt it is T8s. Estimating how often the BB calls is of course a guess at best in a 22.

[/ QUOTE ]

All true. Seems like a reasonably close decision, all said.

eastbay

[tigerite]

I would call here, not push, just flat call.

If you just call, and BB calls:

The pot will be $2,185. The CO will be getting great pot odds on his hand when you push in your remaining $395 post-flop. If the flop comes K 9 4 rainbow can you fold to a bet from CO? If you fold, you have $395 remaining. If CO wins and BB is out, you're ITM but almost definitely 3rd. If you fold, CO loses, now you're the short stack, and almost done with only $395. If you call his bet (or he calls yours), you're getting 4.5:1 pot odds and you probably have the best hand. Just push pre-flop or fold. (I'd push).

If you and BB call, you have to push post-flop. Even if CO calls and beats you, you're something like 75% versus BB's random hand, so you'll still get third. So just push.

If you call and BB folds, then I could see folding post-flop to survive, but I still couldn't based on the pot odds I'm getting, and the fact that I'm probably the in the lead anyway.

[curtains]

btw I think calling is probably the best, but you basically cant fold on the flop, its mainly just to encourage the BB to come along for the ride.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]

btw I think calling is probably the best, but you basically cant fold on the flop, its mainly just to encourage the BB to come along for the ride.

[/ QUOTE ]

For sure. I call knowing I'm going to the felt either way, but knowing that a call is more likely to tempt the BB into coming along than if I push.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

btw I think calling is probably the best, but you basically cant fold on the flop, its mainly just to encourage the BB to come along for the ride.

[/ QUOTE ]

For sure. I call knowing I'm going to the felt either way, but knowing that a call is more likely to tempt the BB into coming along than if I push.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flip side, if you push, there is a chance that the CO will fold. I'd guess that the BB is more likely to push in his remaining 130 chips with the blinds at 75/150 than CO would be to call the all-in.

[tigerite]

Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
I would call here, not push, just flat call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is correct to me. Also, its pretty easy to see why SNGPT says this is -EV.

[xLukex]

Yeah, call. If you push and BB folds you will make this face. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

If you get it all in on a good flop BB has to beat both of you to get you out in 4th.

[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance (edit: my estimate is 25%, given this is a $22) the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

Good analysis AggieYank. This type of thinking is much more valuable than EV estimates spit out by SnGPT, which are too sensitive to assumptions (GIGO) and can't cover all the variables.

To me, this is a "must play" for the reasons AggieYank put forth, but it is not a push, not yet at least. If you push now, BB could fold in the hope you will get knocked out. He may be unlikely to fold, but it also may be that's his only chance if you push and he has two worthless cards.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed.

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

[/ QUOTE ]


Getting 3.3 to 1 on his money there is not a single hand he'd fold here, not even 32o and I'm willing to wager that his hand is a lot better than 32o (or other random junk) since BB is shortstacked (2xbb) and they're on the bubble. Honestly, I don't expect anything less than Ax+/K9+/QT+/22+.


I actually think it's correct to fold here, but I'd never do it. I'd call and hope BB calls also.

[Jbrochu]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an auto fold. Yes, you are well ahead of his range, but you have to understand that when you lose here you are losing $11.50 in equity. When you win here you only have $15.00 equity in the tourney. If cutoff takes out the short stack your equity jumps up to $12.65.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like folding because the cutoff's range is very large, and even though the BB has a random hand he could easily double-up and now his stack size is close to yours.

I call this. If the BB calls I'll try to check it down unless I make trips or better on the flop then I push.

If the BB folds then I'm pushing any flop that doesn't have an A.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis AggieYank. This type of thinking is much more valuable than EV estimates spit out by SnGPT, which are too sensitive to assumptions (GIGO) and can't cover all the variables.

To me, this is a "must play" for the reasons AggieYank put forth, but it is not a push, not yet at least. If you push now, BB could fold in the hope you will get knocked out. He may be unlikely to fold, but it also may be that's his only chance if you push and he has two worthless cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm BB and I see Button push, I fold any hand that's not KK/AA and I'd be taking my time to call with KK.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis AggieYank. This type of thinking is much more valuable than EV estimates spit out by SnGPT, which are too sensitive to assumptions (GIGO) and can't cover all the variables.

To me, this is a "must play" for the reasons AggieYank put forth, but it is not a push, not yet at least. If you push now, BB could fold in the hope you will get knocked out. He may be unlikely to fold, but it also may be that's his only chance if you push and he has two worthless cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I think your action reads need a little work. If you push, BB is folding effectively 100% of the time.

eastbay

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis AggieYank. This type of thinking is much more valuable than EV estimates spit out by SnGPT, which are too sensitive to assumptions (GIGO) and can't cover all the variables.

To me, this is a "must play" for the reasons AggieYank put forth, but it is not a push, not yet at least. If you push now, BB could fold in the hope you will get knocked out. He may be unlikely to fold, but it also may be that's his only chance if you push and he has two worthless cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I think your action reads need a little work. If you push, BB is folding effectively 100% of the time.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

except this time, right?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
If you push, BB is folding effectively 100% of the time.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

except this time, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

True but irrelevant.

eastbay

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed.

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

[/ QUOTE ]


Getting 3.3 to 1 on his money there is not a single hand he'd fold here, not even 32o and I'm willing to wager that his hand is a lot better than 32o (or other random junk) since BB is shortstacked (2xbb) and they're on the bubble. Honestly, I don't expect anything less than Ax+/K9+/QT+/22+.


I actually think it's correct to fold here, but I'd never do it. I'd call and hope BB calls also.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for the record, if he had 32o, and he put you on a pair he'd need ~5:1 pot odds. In reality, he is probably getting the odds he needs because he'd raise with a decent hand only.

[downtown]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed.

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

[/ QUOTE ]

1) What's with the personal insults? I'm pretty sure that doesn't fly around here.

2) [ QUOTE ]
There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out".

[/ QUOTE ]

"Pretty good chance" of CO folding? lol. Are you even considering the times where the short stack (correctly) folds when you push, due not to pot odds but the fact that it's a huge boost in his equity? Or the fact that tigerite pointed out that a call was more likely to get the shorite to come along? I think the fact that the shortie called here is clouding your judgement of how often a shortie does actually call in this situation. Also the idea that we have "pretty good chance" of getting the CO to fold is silly.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed.

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

[/ QUOTE ]

1) What's with the personal insults? I'm pretty sure that doesn't fly around here.

2) [ QUOTE ]
There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out".

[/ QUOTE ]

"Pretty good chance" of CO folding? lol. Are you even considering the times where the short stack (correctly) folds when you push, due not to pot odds but the fact that it's a huge boost in his equity? Or the fact that tigerite pointed out that a call was more likely to get the shorite to come along? I think the fact that the shortie called here is clouding your judgement of how often a shortie does actually call in this situation. Also the idea that we have "pretty good chance" of getting the CO to fold is silly.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) Edited, sorry for the comment. I just thought it was dumb that someone was giving what seemed like a condescending "hint" to a new guy that wasn't correct.

2) Edited. When I said pretty good chance that raiser was a donk trying to steal and would fold, I meant around 25%.

[pooh74]

You're looking to double up, and I see this as the perfect opportunity

This is a great quote because I think it does a good job of demonstrating what things like ICM and SNGPT do. You should be able to feel this, but doing the math helps. Your main objective at this stage is not looking for double ups with these stacks.

Sorry if I'm taking your stuff out of context, but this is the part of the game where double ups need to be near certain for them to be worth the risk. Stack disparity, stack disparity.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

Huh? I think your action reads need a little work. If you push, BB is folding effectively 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see this situation extremely rarely, so I don't have a good idea. But I'd think that BB would need at least an average level of savviness to put this together. I think he can fold with a lot of garbage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see many BBs at the 22s calling with 66 or A8 type holdings, either.

Ok, my expected value analysis:

QQ is 18% against KK, AA
QQ is 56% against AK
QQ is 71% against Ax, Kx
QQ is 67% against Axs
QQ is 80% against a lower pair
QQ is 85% against two lower unpaired
QQ is 78% against lower suited connectors.

It's of course possible he has AA, KK, but his big bet says he doesn't want action, so these aren't likely. Most likely is A8+, K10+, or a lower pair. I'm anywhere from 67% to 80% to win. Lets use 74% as our odds of winning.

If BB folds to hero's all-in and CO calls: EV:
Hero wins:
Stacks are: CO 1755
Hero 2055
SB 4060
BB 130
Hero is 1st 30%, 2nd 38%, 3rd 30%, and 4th 2%
My EV when I win (74% of the time) is .3*100+.38*60*.3*40+.02*0=64.8
Total EV is .74*64.8 = $47.9

If Hero folds, BB calls, we'll say Cutoff wins 58% of the time. When CO wins:
Stacks: CO 3025
Hero 915
SB 4060
My chances are 1st 15%, 2nd 25%, 3rd 60% for an EV of $54. When BB wins:
Stacks: CO 2390
Hero 915
SB 4060
BB 635
My chances are 1st 10%, 2nd 20%, 3rd 40%, 4th 30% for an EV of $38. Given CO wins 58% of the time, my total EV is .58*$54+.42*$38 = $47.28

If BB folded every time, the correct move in my example is to push all in, though it is really a toss up. You could change percentages for 1st-4th, and also for winning the hands, and get a different answer. IMO, you should also factor in the fact that occasionally BB will call, and that occasionally CO will fold, with both cases making the EV for raising all in more than the EV for folding.