Decision based on your ROI

[slimbob]

I had a discussion with a friend about decisions made on your ROI.

For example:

Assumption: You have an ROI of 50%. (I know this is ridiculous high but its only a theoretical assumption)

You play an 100+9$ SNG at party. All 10 players have 1000$ stack.

Blinds are 75/150 and small blind with 1000$ stack push with AKs.

Assumption: You know that he has AKs. You have TT.

Do you have to call because its +$EV?

Do you fold because these decisions lower your ROI?

Ok i know this is only a theoretical discussion. I am only curious if your ROI can have influence at your decisions.

Best regards
slimbob

[swiftrhett]

It is -$EV to call. Oops, not with blinds that high. Remember though, taking a coinflip with 10 players is -$EV, even if it is slightly EV

[lorinda]

Your ROI should have a BIG influence on your decisions.

This is the reason you will get different advice about playing identical hands at different limits. The opponents play better at higher limits, which in turn lowers your ROI which changes the way you play some hands.
A classic case of this would be laying down bigger hands in $11 games in some situations because you can "wait for a better chance" that may not turn up in a $200 game.

Lori

[11t]

Why would your ROI ever come into any decision that you would make?

Also I doubt how +EV calling with AKs is in the scenario you described.

[lorinda]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would your ROI ever come into any decision that you would make?

Also I doubt how +EV calling with AKs is in the scenario you described.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are playing <insert your version of best player in the world here> heads up with deep stacks then you would be happy with a coin flip, however if you were playing <insert idiot who you hate here> then you would not.

Lori

[slimbob]

If I call here with TT against AKs I win 54% of these flips. And theres 225$ dead money in the pot already. So its +$EV.

[slimbob]

Ok I want to ask a more precisely question:

Your ROI reflects that you have an edge over the other players. It is possible to convert your ROI into that edge so that you should call and push dependent of your ROI?
For example: If your ROi is 0% you have to call with any edge. But assuming you know your exactly ROI (assumption) what edge you need to call? Example: You know that you have an ROI of 20%. What edge do you need to call?

Regards
slimbob

[GrekeHaus]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would your ROI ever come into any decision that you would make?

Also I doubt how +EV calling with AKs is in the scenario you described.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the key things that seperates tournament poker from ring games is this exact idea. The fact that you can't reload if you go broke plays a significant role in decision making. In tournament poker, you will often find yourself passing on +EV situations for the reason that you will have bigger +EV situations later in the game.

[GrekeHaus]

[ QUOTE ]

Your ROI reflects that you have an edge over the other players. It is possible to convert your ROI into that edge so that you should call and push dependent of your ROI?


[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt it. During any given tournament you have an expectation which is dynamic. So any game and any situation in any game will have different expectation. ROI is more of a general idea which expresses how well you handle all of these situations put together.

Furthermore, if you change your play according to your ROI, your ROI will change correspondingly!

The general answer to your question is what I stated in my previous post. You should only pass on a positive expectation play if you can expect to get a higher expectation later. In STTs, this generally only happenes early in the tournament, and only if your edge is large.

[curtains]

What GrekeHaus said is basically correct. People who pass up +.3% edges late in a tournament are very bad poker players in my book.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
What GrekeHaus said is basically correct. People who pass up +.3% edges late in a tournament are very bad poker players in my book.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. But how does this translate to early in the tournament? When I first started playing, and winning well at the $20/$30 level, I would pass large edges early. Up to what I estimated was a 10% preflop equity. I'm certain that's far too high now. If you knew, Curtains, what the EV was vs. the range of your opponents hands, what do you pass up on say, Level 1? Level 3?

[slimbob]

Do you call here with TT if you see (assumption) he has AKs? Assumption: Thats the first hand of the STT and you dont know the other player.

Regards
slimbob

I think what you're getting at is that there is no consideration of relative skills in ICM. For instance, if there are 10 players who each start with 1000 chips, ICM will tell you that everyone has a 10% equity, but you know that your equity is really something along the lines of 11.5%. Since what you are doing when you consider an action is comparing your pre-action equity to your post-action equity, and you'll be using your inflated equity both pre- and post-action, it probably won't make much difference.

Why don't you run through all the numbers on your hypothethical AK v TT situation under two assumptions: everyone has equal skill (so that equal stacks have equal equity); and you have a 15% equity bonus (and everyone else has a corresponding and equal equity deduction)?

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you call here with TT if you see (assumption) he has AKs? Assumption: Thats the first hand of the STT and you dont know the other player.

Regards
slimbob

[/ QUOTE ]

this is already answered, its a big ole yes

I was thinking about this lately.

You guys say that if you have a high ROI you should pass up small +EV edges. But don't you get a high ROI in the first place by making all the +EV moves you can? Curtains says this all the time: take all +EV edges, even +.1 to +.3%.

You only need a certain minimum edge when your equity when you fold is higher than what SNGPT says. When the blinds are high and there are few players remaining, especially at higher limits, SNGPT is right I think. /images/graemlins/smile.gif