215 Flush on paired board

[UCF THAYER]

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t15 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com (http://www.pregopoker.com/hhconv/convert)

UTG (t985)
UTG+1 (t895)
MP1 (t975)
MP2 (t2635)
MP3 (t970)
Hero (t725)
Button (t830)
SB (t985)
BB (t1000)

Preflop: Hero is in CO with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG calls t15, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, MP2 calls t15, <font color="gray">MP3 folds</font>, Hero calls t15, Button calls t15, SB calls t5, BB checks

Flop: (t90) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">MP2 bets t45</font>, Hero calls t45, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, SB calls t45, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>, UTG calls t45

Turn: (t270) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">MP2 bets t55</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises t180</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, UTG calls t180, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>

River: (t685) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
<font color="red">UTG bets t475</font>, <font color="gray">Hero ???

[tigerite]

I'd be folding that preflop, but ok since we have called, I'd probably raise the flop to get a free turn (for when the diamond doesn't come) and to get all in more easily (when it does).

[microbet]

Well, just talking about the river.

You might not win, but I think it would be a little nutty to leave yourself with 500, abandoning 1100 in the pot when you have the 2nd best possible flush.

[Pasterbator]

Everyone's been saying that you need to play the early game well to make money at the $215s, so i assume that means playing good drawing hands in LP. So i don't mind the call preflop.

UTG's cold call on the turn scares me. It looks like he could have missed a limp reraise PF with AA and filled up on the turn. 88 is another possibility. If hes a good player, i can't see him limping UTG with any flushes.

Anyway, I think you're supposed to fold this (tho i wouldnt at the $33s) Would you have bet if he checked the river to you? How would you react to a checkraise?

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone's been saying that you need to play the early game well to make money at the $215s, so i assume that means playing good drawing hands in LP. So i don't mind the call preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's a bit overrated to be honest, and a bit loose to be calling QJs one off the button to only two limpers. I dunno but it seems like you'll be gambling too often on the flop when you do "hit", like this one.

Yeah I was kind of wondering about this. I mean the whole concept of suited connectors is to see a cheap, multi-way flop right? And these are nice high SCs at that. So when would you ever play QJs if not in this spot (or pushbot land obviously). Is fold the general consensus here?

[tigerite]

With one more limper, or from the button.

[microbet]

I suppose there are some villians for whom 88 and maybe 22 are the only possible hands here, but you have to know a lot more than they are just $215ers to know that.

[Pasterbator]

[ QUOTE ]
I suppose there are some villians for whom 88 and maybe 22 are the only possible hands here, but you have to know a lot more than they are just $215ers to know that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, why am i assuming that $215ers can't be donks? So add a few random hands into the mix, and i think you can call. But it still looks like a boat / quads.

[citanul]

thinking about folding this river is worthy of being slapped around.

[Pasterbator]

[ QUOTE ]
thinking about folding this river is worthy of being slapped around.

[/ QUOTE ]

I shouldnt be commenting on $215 hands anyway. Make me your punching bag.

[citanul]

what hands do you think he can have here?

[Pasterbator]

Cit, help me with my analysis.

The way i see it, he limped UTG preflop. So i guess he can have a range of 22-AA, AJ+, A2s+, and all suited connectors if he doesn't mind playing them OOP. I'm thinking this is as wide as his range could be. I keep forgetting that not everyone is as tight as I am in EP, so they might limp many hands.

He calls the flop bet. Either hes 1) testing with a small/medium pair to see if hes good, 2) on a flush draw 3) Hit the flop hard.

He cold calls a reraise on the turn. I don't think he can do this without a made flush or a boat. I can't think of any hand containing the Kd that isnt KK who was looking for a limp reraise PF and missed. So he MIGHT be looking to hit his flush.

On the river, he leads for our remaining stack. This is exactly how most people would play 88, 22, AA, and a lot of smaller flushes. I guess the chance that he has a smaller flush (or is bluffing with the Kd) is good enough that you should be calling on this river every time.

Did i misstep anywhere?

[microbet]

You have most of the possibilities, but unless you know the villian you can't rule anything out. Some people enter a pot with the intention of bluffing it. Even with the intention of doing a multi-street bluff. Some of these players have gone on to do things like do really well at WPT tournaments. Some people overvalue some hands that you didn't include and then think you are bluffing because either the board paired or there is a flush draw or whatever. But, basically, just the good possibility of a lower flush here or a bluff after missing, is enough to make the call.

I think you could find a fold against a very predictable 2p2er whose limp UTG almost by itself guarantees mid (maybe small) PP. For some players that limp guarantees it and for some the only other possible hands would be AQs or AJs and with the Ace out in the flush, that would rule them out from having a flush. I don't think that player plays a middle pocket pair that doesn't fill up on the this hand in this fashion.

[UCF THAYER]

I folded FWIW, guess i shouldn't have.
When he cold called my reraise, i was confident i was in bad shape, and just felt like folding to his bet on the river was the right decision.