Foxwoods 10/20 - Top two pair, lots of heat

[JTG51]

The game is loose and had been fairly passive. EP in this hand has only been at the table for 1 orbit. He's played aggressively both before and after the flop, but he hasn't shown down a hand yet so I don't have much of a read.

I raise UTG with AhJh. EP 3-bets. LP cold calls, BB calls, I call. 4 of us see the flop for 3 bets each.

Flop: 7c Ad 7d

BB bets, I raise, EP 3-bets, LP calls 3 cold again. BB and I call.

Turn: [7c Ad 7d] Js

Checked to EP who bets. LP and BB call, I check raise, EP 3-bets. LP calls, BB folds, I call. 3 of us see the river.

River: [7c Ad 7d Js] Ac

I bet.

Thoughts?

[CrackerZack]

I like every street. Figure you're behind after the 3-bet on the flop, but you're getting the odds to call one more to spike a jack. BB appears to have the last A and LP must be on clubs. Hopefully the river gets raised by EP/BB who think they're chopping.

[mojolang]

You have to ask yourself what kind of hands will you 3 bet an UTG raiser? AA, KK, AK, QQ, Maybe AQs and JJ. Then someone calls 3 bets cold and someone else calls 2 in the BB, smells like trouble. It seems to me that you may be in trouble with all the action on the flop as well, probably against a bigger ace. All that being said, you have the odds to draw out, and you played the rest of the hand great. EP sounds almost maniacal.

Joe

[Philuva]

I would 4 bet the turn. I don't think either player has a 7 and the chances of EP having AA are small since you know there are two aces out there.

I like the river bet. Hopefully someone will raise with the other A. Only if it got 4-bet on the river, would I consider someone has quad sevens.

[JTG51]

[ QUOTE ]
I would 4 bet the turn. I don't think either player has a 7 and the chances of EP having AA are small since you know there are two aces out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought someone might suggest that, I certainly thought about it at the time.

[Dante]

A lot of players where I play will "slowplay" quads like this (i.e. just call when there are two other people putting down the heat). Look at his actions (call 3 cold, call 3 cold, call 3 cold). All the calling station-types I know will call 1 raise, not 3 bets cold like that. Maybe he's bad enough to call that many bets with Ax or or flush draw, or just call with a 7, but I would at least consider the possibility of quads. However, I'd still bet and re-raise the river (assuming it's raised).

Dante

[Ulysses]

Thoughts?

Why no 4-bet on the turn?

[JTG51]

Why no 4-bet on the turn?

Because I'm a pansy.

At the time my thinking was something like, "Jeez, I've raised and gotten 3-bet on 3 consecutive streets. I have no idea what this guys preflop 3-betting standards are, maybe it's time to slow down."

Thinking about the hand afterwards I decided I maybe, probably should have 4-bet the turn. That's the main reason I posted the hand. Opinions seem about evenly divided right now.

[Ulysses]

I've raised and gotten 3-bet on 3 consecutive streets.

OK, let's look at the two opponents.

EP 3-bets you pre-flop, then 3-bets you on the flop w/ LP and BB between you. I can't think of any opponents who would 3-bet 77 in that situation. Most wouldn't 3-bet w/ Aces either on that flop. Would EP? I think it's much more likely that he has AK.

That leaves us w/ LP. He's just sitting there cold-calling. He might have flopped quads, but he's much more likely to have either AQ or KdQd.

[JTG51]

I can't think of any opponents who would 3-bet 77 in that situation. Most wouldn't 3-bet w/ Aces either on that flop.

That's why I decided I probably should have 3-bet. You are ignoring the possibility that EP could have some other 7 though. It's not likely, but I happen to have some inside information here that makes me think it is possible. Mostly the fact that I saw his hand at the showdown. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

He might have flopped quads, but he's much more likely to have either AQ or KdQd.

I thought his most likely hand by far was a flush draw, since I was running out of Aces to put people on.

[JTG51]

I have AJ, the final board is 7c Ad 7d Js Ac.

I bet the river, EP called, LP raised, I 3-bet and they both called.

It turns out I made a super duper suck out as EP showed the surprising T7s and LP showed A4o.

Thanks for the comments.

[elysium]

hi jtg
well, i don't like the turn check-raise. the BB or LP could have trips and who knows what the EP has. as it turns out, it looks like the EP may have the trips on the turn here. i don't see any reason to check-raise the turn jtg. maybe i'm missing something but it looks too risky to me. i'm glad to see that you hit solidly on the river, you needed it.

[MrGo]

I figure one has to have you beat on the flop - AK or AQs. The other is on a flush draw that didn't make it. Nice hand.

[Ed Miller]

Why no 4-bet on the turn?

Are you serious? I put EP on at least a 7 by this time.

[Ed Miller]

You have to ask yourself what kind of hands will you 3 bet an UTG raiser? AA, KK, AK, QQ, Maybe AQs and JJ.

Why does it matter what hands JTG would 3-bet an UTG raiser with?

[Louie Landale]

It appears the new player has raised at least twice PF and bet two or more hands PostFlop, and never showed a hand winner. That seems like plenty of evidence that he's "assertive" to me. Probably "aggressive".

Anyway, nice suck-out.

But lets consider one thing. There are 4 of you taking 3-bets on the flop of A77. There are only 3 Aces left in the deck. Either all 3 Aces are out and the 4th player has a flush draw, or there are 2 aces out and 2 players have flush draws. Otherwise, someone probably has a 7, whether or not you can figure out who it is.

- Louie

[Lee Jones]

So, I've already read the results, so I'm tainted, but let me quote the estimable Conan Doyle:

When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth

When somebody three-bets the turn in a three-way pot, well, they like their hand a whole lot. Somebody else (majorkong?) said it - "You don't know where the 7 is, but it's there."

I know it's "almost impossible" for somebody to have a singleton seven after the preflop betting. But when that third bet gets put in on the turn and called, somebody has a seven (or better).

I think it looks like you're drawing at three outs, and they all kill the action (unless you're about to get shown quads). I'd let it go on the turn after the three-bet-call sequence.

Regards, Lee

[JTG51]

I think it looks like you're drawing at three outs, and they all kill the action (unless you're about to get shown quads). I'd let it go on the turn after the three-bet-call sequence.

Lee, I must be misunderstanding you. You'd fold what you think is a 3 outer on the turn getting 21-1 odds?

Plus, I'd argue that an A will do anything but kill my action. If someone has an A (which they must if I only have 3 outs), I'll get at least 2 bets and sometimes 4 from him on the river.

[Lee Jones]

Lee, I must be misunderstanding you. You'd fold what you think is a 3 outer on the turn getting 21-1 odds?

Heh. There is that silly pot-odds thing /images/graemlins/blush.gif. You're absolutely right you need to call, but I'd be sure enough as certain that I was drawing. So no, I wouldn't four-bet, and I'd try to muster the courage to fold on the river if I don't catch.

Regards, Lee

[Yardbird]

Your flaming bacon got quenched in the river... and then burst back into flame in the showdown, right?

[JTG51]

Mmmmm.... Bacon....

[ACPlayer]

If you think you are drawing you have a tough call as you are actually getting 21-2 in effective odds (see theory of poker) to find out if you have the best hand.

Almost nobody will not make the crying call on the river staring at that big pot.

[JTG51]

If you think you are drawing you have a tough call as you are actually getting 21-2 in effective odds (see theory of poker) to find out if you have the best hand.

You are ignoring the bets I'll win on the river if I hit one of my outs. I'm sure to make at least one bet, and could make as many as 8. So my effective odds are really somewhere between 22-2 and 29-2, probably something like 25-2 most of the time. I think that makes folding a pretty big mistake.

[baseball38]

my thoughts are you win a big pot! Nice hand and I am not really sure why you didn't cap it on the turn and make those drawing hands pay, because surely they are going to put in another bet to see the river.

baseball38 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[Georgia Peach]

two top pair, lots of heat, and lots of luck on the draw.

Very spiritual on your part given the strength shown by the other two. I wouldn't have walked away from that one either.

[Pot-A]

"Almost nobody will not..." Er, wait, that would be "Most everybody will...", right?

[ACPlayer]

Well, while we are arguing this small pointabout the odds -- if you are behind you are a 15 to 1 underdog so you are not really getting the odds to draw (assuming that you will be calling the river bet if you dont improve). You would need effective odds of 30 to 2 to justify calling both the bets.

Looking at a higher level, the problem is that you have to factor in the possibility that you are ahead. Which means given that you will call 2 BB and there are 21BB in the pot and say you will get two additional on the river, then is the combination of the chance that you are ahead and the chance that if you are not ahead now you will be ahead on the river worth the 2 bet call. It may be interesting to set up a spread sheet that calculates the EV of the two calls, given different assumptions on the percentage chance that you are ahead.

Note that for example you have about a 6+% chance of improving. If you think there is a 10% chance you are ahead the sum of those two percentages is 16% which is about 5 to 1 against!!!!

If you are CERTAIN you are behind, it is a easy fold.

[John Cole]

JTG,

3 bet with T7s and called three bets with A4o? Last time I played 5-10 at FW I saw this kind of looniness. Has the same type of play become standard in the 10-20 as well?

[JTG51]

Good points.

I thought about figuring the EV based on my opponents possible holdings, but my head started to hurt. Maybe if I'm feeling ambitious some day I'll try it.

[JTG51]

John,

I wouldn't say it's standard, but it's certainly not unusual either. There are so many new players lately, all of the games have been great.