satellite bubble questions

[Guy McSucker]

I'm posting this since I made such a hash of answering daithi's question below and it got me thinking.

The situation is: three players left in a satellite, 1st and 2nd get a seat, 3rd gets nothing. You have just slightly more chips than the third place guy: 5000 vs 2800 vs 2200, blinds 400-800.

My question is, what is the right strategy for all the players?

In the thread below, consensus was that if the chip leader raises, 2nd place player should fold and let the other player gamble if he wants to. This is right because if third place folds, 2nd place is no worse off, and if third place plays, 2nd place has a 50% chance of getting a seat, with no chance of being immediately eliminated, which is better than a 50% chance of being eliminated with no chance of guaranteeing a seat!

(I am assuming all heads-up confrontations will be 50-50 for now, i.e. that strategy is based on chip count alone with complete disregard for the cards.)

So what should the third place guy be doing? When he has the button, should he raise all-in? If he does and the chip leader is next to act, it's tempting for him to fold, since he will still be chip leader afterwards, whatever happens. Now the burden is on the 2nd place: if he folds he surrenders 2nd place, but if he plays he has a 50% chance of winning a seat. The rest of the time he is still involved but a firm third.

So what do you all think these players should be doing?

And then when cards are factored in, what changes? I think I'm playing AA whatever.

Guy.

[slamdunkpro]

Worst case for 2nd and 3rd is they can both only see 7 more hands before being blinded out. If I'm the chip leader I'm going to be raising pre-flop at least 1k to force a move from one or the other.

The other thought is if I'm the chip leader and I know that I'm going to have to play one of these two again, I'm going to pick the weaker player and go passive on him to force the other player to move quicker or blind out.

If I'm in either 2nd or 3rd I know I'm most likely to only get one shot if I play, so since it's short handed, I'm going to make a move with a mid pair, big paint, or A7 and up.

[Daithi]

I really think that knowing how to play in these situations is a huge factor in winning tournament money, particularly when the payout is graduated. I have a feeling a lot of players make poor decisions here (myself included).

Now to my thoughts on Guy's question (but keep in mind my poor decision earlier).

I think 3rd should move in on the button or the SB if he has any A, K, Q, or 2 cards ten or above. When he is in the BB I think he should move all-in with any 2 cards. I think the chip leader should let the other two battle it out but should defend his blind with any 2 cards, and if he has an Ace move all-in from any position.

2nd place should sit on his hands if he can, but what happens when he is in the SB with 23o and chip leader on the button folds his hand? Should the 2nd place player in the SB go all-in?

Against any random 2 cards 23o still wins over 30% of the time. If he doesn't go all-in the 3rd place player moves into 2nd place by default. I would probably fold the 23o and try to survive by playing the 3rd place stategy above. If this is correct, that is you should fold 23o, then what cards should you move all-in? Any 2 cards where you are above 50% to win against 2 random cards when they are run hot and cold I would imagine.

[Gus]

I think the relative position of the player gets quite important here. Say I'm 3rd in chips, I'd like to have the big stack on my left, and the 2nd stack on my right. this should allow me to steal of a few blinds by going all-in before the flop: the big stack is not as likely to defend his small blind as there is a chance that the BB calls. And the BB has a tough decision to make and might let his stack decrease significantly if he's too defensive. When the big stack has the button and open-raise, I also have an easy fold when the SB calls all-in... with almost any hand right?


If the other short stack is to my left, then the situation is reversed, and in addition to that I will probably have to fold to most steal attempt from the big stack when he's on the button (therefore reducing my opportunities to steal the 2nd stack BB).

does that make sense or not really?