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redeyejack
07-29-2003, 05:39 AM
Hi all! I have a dilema regarding pot odds. Say you are on the button with J /images/graemlins/heart.gif10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4 people limp in, you call (althought this would be a good spot to raise /images/graemlins/wink.gif), SB folds and the BB checks. So six in for 1 bet each.

Flop comes A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

BB bets out, fold, call, call, call. Action on you with 10.5 small bets in the pot. Here's my problem. Without looking at raising for free cards or making any type of 'play', if I'm looking to simply out draw the BB and make my gut shot straight, do I look at it and think in terms of option 'A' or 'B':

A) I plan to call 1 small bet on the flop with intentions of folding on fourth street if I don't improve. I'm getting 10-1 to call, on about an 11-1 shot and figure I can make up the remaining small bet on further streets should I hit. I have to fold on the turn because then it will be about 7 big bets to me if there was say another bet and a call, giving me 7-1 on an 11-1 shot. And I don't figure to make up the futher 4 big bets on the river to make the draw profitable.

B) I'm about a 5-1 dog to hit my gut shot straight draw if I stay for two more cards. However, I would have to call a small bet now, and probably another big bet on the turn if I miss there. So if I'm playing $10-$20 hold'em, this would be $30. What can I win? Well, the 10.5 small bets in there already ($105), and, should I hit on the river for example, say another $40 on the turn, and if a player bet out and I raise him on the river, probably another $40. This is a total of $185. That $185 to my $30 is about 6-1. Good enough odds to call, both on the flop and the turn.

I know the above 'situation' is probably not very practical and wouldn't come up, but I think you can understand from it the problem I have. Implied Odds on two 10-1 shots or one 5-1 shot considering Effective Odds. Even though you sort of do both in both cases. Both of these seem correct to me yet one dictates a call and the other a fold. I hope someone out there can clear this up for me. Thanks to all who stayed and read. I know it was a bit long winded.

redeyejack. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Ed Miller
07-29-2003, 09:37 AM
Here's the point... I didn't check your math on option B, but I'll explain the difference.

Say someone offers you two bets... he will flip a coin two times. The first time, he will pay you 3-1 if the coin lands on heads. The second time, you will pay him 2-1 if the coin lands on tails. That is, you have a big overlay on the first bet but are taking the worst of it (but less so) on bet two.

Now say that he offers you both bets, and says that if you want to make either bet, you must make both bets and wager the same on each bet. Would you accept his proposal? Hopefully you would, as the sum of the two bets offers an overlay.

Now say that he allows you to accept each bet independently of one another. Now of course you would accept bet one but reject bet two. You are better off doing this than accepting both bets, yet accepting both bets still offers you an overlay.

In your gutshot example, calling on the flop offers you a big overlay. Calling on the turn leaves you taking the worst of it. Maybe both bets taken together still offer an overlay, but it will be smaller than if you just called on the flop and folded the turn.