Question on how to bet when the flop misses

I have trouble knowing how much to bet to try to steal a pot in these circumstances:
<ul type="square">
I have position against 1-2 other players.
I bet before the pot, a standard bet of 3-4x bb.
The flop misses me, but it is checked to me and I think the flop missed the other players.
[/list]

Example:

Preflop: MP calls BB, I raise to 4xBB from LP, SB folds, BB calls, MP calls.
Pot = 12.5 BB.
Post flop: BB checks, MP Checks, I raise... ?

I would like to automatically bet without thinking about the amount. I want to be able to take down the pot, but not over commit myself in case I'm called or check raised.

[AKQJ10]

Although you didn't use the term "continuation bet", that's pretty standard for the kind of bet you're referring to here. An example might be if you raise PF with AK and the flop comes J 7 3 rainbow. You can't feel confident that you have the best hand, but you might, and even if someone paired treys or has a pocket pair like sixes, they can't feel confident either, so you're correct to bet to try to take down the pot.

There's no automatic answer about how much to bet, but the general rule of thumb is that you want to act in such a way that an observant opponent can't tell whether the flop could have hit you. ("Hit" for these purposes includes a flop of low cards that preserves the value of an overpair -- in the above scenario, you should play QQ exactly the same way as AK.)

In general, with a good hand you're going to want to bet somewhere between 1/2 pot and slightly more than the pot to deny odds to draws. Therefore your continuation bet should be about the same -- a little more on a highly coordinated flop, a little less on an uncoordinated board.

Standard disclaimer: I'm not a good NLHE player, so more experienced winning players may have something more to say.

Thanks. About how often would you make this play in similar circumstances? Every time? Or would you vary between betting and checking to give credence to the times you do bet?

[AKQJ10]

Excellent question -- it shows that you're thinking about how to disguise your play.

I would guess you probably want to continuation bet at least 75% of the time with one opponent or possibly two tight opponents, because it's usually a +EV play. At the worst, unless your opponents are tricky enough to try a big check-raise or are trapping with a big hand, you're usually semibluffing with 6 outs to improve.

If your flop bet is called, you don't want to get in the habit of automatically playing the turn passively. I'd probably bet the turn 20% of the time I don't improve if it's still checked to me.

Suppose the board is coordinated such as Jh, 9d, 3h where there are straight draws and flush draws your opponents may reasonably have. With 2 opponents here do you continuation bet where an Ah, or any K could leave you drawing dead. If so, do you bet closer to the pot so opponent 1 is getting 2:1 and opponent 2 is getting at best 3:1 to call for the draw?

[ QUOTE ]
If your flop bet is called, you don't want to get in the habit of automatically playing the turn passively. I'd probably bet the turn 20% of the time I don't improve if it's still checked to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great advice. I can see the hands replaying in my mind where I and other players likely tossed into the muck because a smart player did this very thing. Position is the real key on this one I think which you implied by mentioning "if it is checked to me".

Now I ask, are you looking for elimination or value when you make this bet on the turn?

One thing is certain and wise to watch for. There are many players who will call call and eventually fold to a third bet. I have seen this time after time so be alert and keep your mental notes straight on those players. This is often times the fold threshold for them. Respectful of those players, once that bet goes down on the turn, the odds to the river have greatly changed from that of the turn to river odds.

Monty