AKo - Time for a laydown?

[Nick Royale]

UTG: 14/10/2.7
CO: 43/6/2.7

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, CO calls.

Turn: (6.70 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (9.70 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, CO calls, Hero...

[Fryguy]

You have CO beat 99.9% of the time here, so ignore him, and I don't think you are losing 90% of the time to UTG, so just call.

[logistik]

I dont think im folding for one bet on ther river.

Call the river. Then again according to my pokertracker stats, I don't fold to river bets enough LOL.

[Nick Royale]

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You have CO beat 99.9% of the time here, so ignore him, and I don't think you are losing 90% of the time to UTG, so just call.

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I actually misread my own hand slightly. I think this is call, still it's pretty slim with these stats, and of course they are over a large sample.

[Fat Nicky]

I can't see folding here. I don't see UTGs turn donkbet as being a monster, but more likely A/images/graemlins/club.gif 10/images/graemlins/club.gif or something...and I don't think you should be worried about teh CO.

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You have CO beat 99.9% of the time here, so ignore him, and I don't think you are losing 90% of the time to UTG, so just call.

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It's damn close. What hands do we beat that villain raise with UTG? KK and...? He can raise TT here but I highly doubt he would lead the turn then against 2 players. Do we really want to call here hoping for a split against AK or that he have KK? I think he have QQ judging from his actions. I really don't know what I would do here but I would probably call it down or fold the turn.

[TheHip41]

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You have CO beat 99.9% of the time here, so ignore him, and I don't think you are losing 90% of the time to UTG, so just call.

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It's damn close. What hands do we beat that villain raise with UTG? KK and...? He can raise TT here but I highly doubt he would lead the turn then against 2 players. Do we really want to call here hoping for a split against AK or that he have KK? I think he have QQ judging from his actions. I really don't know what I would do here but I would probably call it down or fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you ever fold the turn here given the action. You are closing the action getting 8-1, you have TP/TK and a gutshot. If you aren't ahead, you can almost call for the gutshot alone.

All that said, I don't think the villian is betting this turn with ATs, or TT, or KK, so I think you are losing, but, I'm still calling down. If the river is bet/raise, then it'll will be much easier to let this go.

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Why would you ever fold the turn here given the action. You are closing the action getting 8-1, you have TP/TK and a gutshot. If you aren't ahead, you can almost call for the gutshot alone.

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If we hit our straight I think it's a split. If the pot is bigger sure. I either fold the turn or call down to showdown. There is no calling turn folding river unless both players start going at it.

[TheHip41]

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Why would you ever fold the turn here given the action. You are closing the action getting 8-1, you have TP/TK and a gutshot. If you aren't ahead, you can almost call for the gutshot alone.

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If we hit our straight I think it's a split. If the pot is bigger sure. I either fold the turn or call down to showdown. There is no calling turn folding river unless both players start going at it.

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I think folding on the turn for 1 bb in this pot on this board with are cards is ridiculous.

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Why would you ever fold the turn here given the action. You are closing the action getting 8-1, you have TP/TK and a gutshot. If you aren't ahead, you can almost call for the gutshot alone.

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If we hit our straight I think it's a split. If the pot is bigger sure. I either fold the turn or call down to showdown. There is no calling turn folding river unless both players start going at it.

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I think folding on the turn for 1 bb in this pot on this board with are cards is ridiculous.

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Yea because drawing to 4 outs and maybe not even taking down the pot if we hit is just to good to get away from? Or we may draw to 7 outs if our kings are good vs villains AQ but how often is that?

[Nick Royale]

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Why would you ever fold the turn here given the action. You are closing the action getting 8-1, you have TP/TK and a gutshot. If you aren't ahead, you can almost call for the gutshot alone.

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If we hit our straight I think it's a split. If the pot is bigger sure. I either fold the turn or call down to showdown. There is no calling turn folding river unless both players start going at it.

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I think folding on the turn for 1 bb in this pot on this board with are cards is ridiculous.

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Yea because drawing to 4 outs and maybe not even taking down the pot if we hit is just to good to get away from? Or we may draw to 7 outs if our kings are good vs villains AQ but how often is that?

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Your reasoning is not congruent. You like to pay 2 bets getting to a showdown, but you don't he could have AQ or worse? You don't think he'll he could have AJ? Unless the TAG raises KTs UTG the only thing that would taint our gut-shot outs is CO, but how often will he hold a K? I don't like your reasoning...

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Why would you ever fold the turn here given the action. You are closing the action getting 8-1, you have TP/TK and a gutshot. If you aren't ahead, you can almost call for the gutshot alone.

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If we hit our straight I think it's a split. If the pot is bigger sure. I either fold the turn or call down to showdown. There is no calling turn folding river unless both players start going at it.

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I think folding on the turn for 1 bb in this pot on this board with are cards is ridiculous.

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Yea because drawing to 4 outs and maybe not even taking down the pot if we hit is just to good to get away from? Or we may draw to 7 outs if our kings are good vs villains AQ but how often is that?

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Your reasoning is not congruent. You like to pay 2 bets getting to a showdown, but you don't he could have AQ or worse? You don't think he'll he could have AJ? Unless the TAG raises KTs UTG the only thing that would taint our gut-shot outs is CO, but how often will he hold a K? I don't like your reasoning...

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You never see CO with KQ of spades here? Or KQ of any kind? If they aren't in spades he still have odds to call with his gutshot here on the flop. For our sake in the hand, I don't like calling for our gutshot on the turn at all. We don't have the odds for it and even if we hit, we are probably splitting it 50% of the time. If I ever call this turn, or raise for that matter, it's because I think I have a chance to win the hand if the river comes blank and as this hand have played out, I have a hard time seeing us winning this hand even 5% of the time. We must improve so I fold.

[chief444]

He can't fold this turn. No way. The opponent has another AK more than 5% of the time. When he's behind he often has 7 outs and ~5 discounted. That's if he's always drawing...which he isn't. And he's closing the action.

[7stud]

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Or we may draw to 7 outs if our kings are good vs villains AQ but how often is that?

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Could you explain what that means?

[ackid]

Why didnt you raise the turn here?

[TheHip41]

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Why didnt you raise the turn here?

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Because he's probably not winning. What's the range for UTG here? Seriously, raising is worse than folding.

[Nick Royale]

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Why didnt you raise the turn here?

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Becausea TAG raising UTG preflop bets into me on a AQJx board.

[ackid]

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Why didnt you raise the turn here?

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Becausea TAG raising UTG preflop bets into me on a AQJx board.

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My bad. I missed his stats at the top.

Given UTG stats im calling turn folding river UI.

[W. Deranged]

I am MUCH closer to raising this turn than I am to folding this river.

No way I'm folding this river for one bet.

[Nick Royale]

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I am MUCH closer to raising this turn than I am to folding this river.

No way I'm folding this river for one bet.

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Oh my God! Is it that bad!? It can't be, i was crying and kicking my cat and all that stuff when calling the river /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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Or we may draw to 7 outs if our kings are good vs villains AQ but how often is that?

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Could you explain what that means?

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4 outs to a straight and if villain has AQ we have 3 out since if a king hit we have two higher pairs...

[W. Deranged]

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I am MUCH closer to raising this turn than I am to folding this river.

No way I'm folding this river for one bet.

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Oh my God! Is it that bad!? It can't be, i was crying and kicking my cat and all that stuff when calling the river /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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The salient points for me are:

1. The villain who bets out the turn is not really that passive. 14/10/2.7 or whatever may be betting a fair amount of stuff.

2. You got bet into and not check-raised. Some players may just be playing an A this way, or an A with a draw. Some meaningful amount of the time you are probably chopping.

3. The intermediate player means nothing, and the first position villain may recognize this.

4. The pot is pretty big.

[Nick Royale]

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1. The villain who bets out the turn is not really that passive. 14/10/2.7 or whatever may be betting a fair amount of stuff.

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He's not passive, but seemingly well playing after a large sample. A TAG shouldn't be betting this without anything that beats me. And the only meaningful draw I can see him betting along with an ace given his preflop raise is AcTc.

I agree this is a call on the river, but to me it seems pretty slim.

[Nick Royale]

UTG held KcTc

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UTG held KcTc

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With this information, the turn is a CLEAR FOLD.

Donk bets from TAG's when your holding TPTK are always unpleasant, I am falling into calldown mode here expecting to lose, but winning enough here to make calling profitable.