$22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[GtrHtr]

After losing the last hand I was left with a seriously short stack. Wait and pray or push? If push, push any 2 from position or is there a limit to your push hands?

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com (http://www.pregopoker.com/hhconv/convert)

UTG (t3800)
UTG+1 (t930)
CO (t610)
Hero (t330)
SB (t1100)
BB (t1230)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero t330 (All-in)</font>

[45suited]

Looks fine to me. How often are you going to get a better spot than this before the blinds hit you?

I mean, you're open pushing from the button with a hand that's not terrible. You must push here, IMO.

If we think the SB will call with any pair, any ace, any two other broadway and the BB will call with any two (since he's just getting fantastic odds) then it's exactly neutral EV. To be honest, I think this is the best you're going to get and just have to push it now and pray for the best.

I would say push, but we can't forget that they're more likely to call you since they think you're on tilt... /images/graemlins/frown.gif That opens up their range a little bit (and for some donks, it opens up their range to 100%)

[45suited]

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I would say push, but we can't forget that they're more likely to call you since they think you're on tilt... /images/graemlins/frown.gif That opens up their range a little bit (and for some donks, it opens up their range to 100%)

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That's actually irrelevant in this case. OP has enough of a stack to have some FE over SB and the typical BB is calling with all but the absolute worst hands anyway getting 2:1 on his money.

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Clear fold. You have a few hands to wait until you are committed, and I'm sure you'll get a better hand.

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Certainly not a clear fold...

[11t]

I'd fold complete rags since there is no ante and you have no fold equity.

J8os is way to powerful to fold here though, especially since the sb might fold and you can go against BB's call with a very likely random hand.

[45suited]

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Clear fold. You have a few hands to wait until you are committed, and I'm sure you'll get a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? He's in the BB for almost half his stack in 3 hands. And it's not a matter of 'getting a better hand', it's a matter of getting a better opportunity than this. OP desperately needs to double up and / or steal blinds. He absolutely can not afford to fold here.

[45suited]

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I guarentee u get a better hand than j8 offsuit in 3 or less hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I call BS on your claims of making 5K per week playing SNGs if you fail to understand that it's not simply a matter of him getting a better hand before the blinds hit him.

Okay, so say the next hand he picks up TJo, but the pot is raised in front of him. Is that a better spot than open pushing with 8Jo from the button? Hardly.

[RobGW]

Saying you guarantee you'll get a better hand is nonsense. You can guarantee no such thing and as 45s said, even if you do you may be against a better hand or two. If you are going to make a ridiculous statement like that I think we all would like some sort of explaination.

[pooh74]

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You don't understand and I don't have the energy to explain further.

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Nor do you have any idea what you are talking about...this is a clear push.

[pooh74]

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You don't understand and I don't have the energy to explain further.

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Nor do you have any idea what you are talking about...this is a clear push.

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I'd love to hear what OP pushed into, I mean lost to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now I am sure you have no idea what you are talking about.

[RobGW]

OK I see now. With each post of yours I read, it becomes more and more clear you dont know what your doing. I think your reasoning is flawed as we have pointed out but if you dont want to believe it then just go on about folding. I thought just maybe you had another reason that you weren't sharing with us but I guess not.

[pooh74]

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Saying you guarantee you'll get a better hand is nonsense. You can guarantee no such thing and as 45s said, even if you do you may be against a better hand or two. If you are going to make a ridiculous statement like that I think we all would like some sort of explaination.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jesus!!! Use your brain. J8 unsuited is a BELOW AVERAGE hand. The chances of you getting an ABOVE AVERAGE hand in 3 goes is very high! Hello??

[/ QUOTE ]

Your tone is annoying...try using your brain too. On those subsequent hands where you hold out for something better, you have to push through more people increasing the likelihood of being called by better hands.

Having 2BBs is the problem, not pushing J8.

[45suited]

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Saying you guarantee you'll get a better hand is nonsense. You can guarantee no such thing and as 45s said, even if you do you may be against a better hand or two. If you are going to make a ridiculous statement like that I think we all would like some sort of explaination.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jesus!!! Use your brain. J8 unsuited is a BELOW AVERAGE hand. The chances of you getting an ABOVE AVERAGE hand in 3 goes is very high! Hello??

[/ QUOTE ]

Your tone is annoying...try using your brain too. On those subsequent hands where you hold out for something better, you have to push through more people increasing the likelihood of being called by better hands.

Having 2BBs is the problem, not pushing J8.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Not to mention the fact that J8o is actually 51% vs a random hand, so even that claim is incorrect.

My 'troll detector' has been activated.

[pooh74]

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My 'troll detector' has been activated.

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Ditto...thought it was bit late for the December Troll to show up so late though.

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I'd love to hear what OP pushed into, I mean lost to.

[/ QUOTE ]
The push was either the correct decision or it wasn't. What actually happened is irrelevant.

Even I, as a relative noob, can recognize that this is an automatic push. The number of potential callers is about as important as the cards you're pushing with, especially here where Hero's stack isn't gonna induce any folds in itself.

It's also more likely that both the J and 8 will be live here, whereas if you pushed with weak K or Q, a caller may have you dominated.

[pooh74]

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Saying you guarantee you'll get a better hand is nonsense. You can guarantee no such thing and as 45s said, even if you do you may be against a better hand or two. If you are going to make a ridiculous statement like that I think we all would like some sort of explaination.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jesus!!! Use your brain. J8 unsuited is a BELOW AVERAGE hand. The chances of you getting an ABOVE AVERAGE hand in 3 goes is very high! Hello??

[/ QUOTE ]

Your tone is annoying...try using your brain too. On those subsequent hands where you hold out for something better, you have to push through more people increasing the likelihood of being called by better hands.

Having 2BBs is the problem, not pushing J8.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Not to mention the fact that J8o is actually 51% vs a random hand, so even that claim is incorrect.

My 'troll detector' has been activated.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, the only reason I am correcting you is because I know none of you play at my level. I mean, u couldn't if you really believe what u are saying. If he was in the BB next hand, yes of course push, but he's not. You people are too push-happy. And why am I a troll? I am explaining my reasoning. You disagree with it, fine. No point in name calling, that's very kindergarten-ish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Continue to play at "your level". You have done nothing but refute the valid points brought up here by saying "you guys arent giving any reasons why I am wrong."

You are not going to get along well on these boards and it has nothing to do with the fact that your ideas are wrong.

Granted, to me these are basic concepts, but there was a time when I may have thought as you did...but I always know its ok to be wrong...you dont. I love the fact you think as you do, and I will let you continue to think as such...

[Hendricks433]

Your filling up this forum of bad advice is horrible for this forum which is a very good forum. Please stop being so strongheaded and stupid. Read more and respond less.

[pooh74]

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Saying you guarantee you'll get a better hand is nonsense. You can guarantee no such thing and as 45s said, even if you do you may be against a better hand or two. If you are going to make a ridiculous statement like that I think we all would like some sort of explaination.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jesus!!! Use your brain. J8 unsuited is a BELOW AVERAGE hand. The chances of you getting an ABOVE AVERAGE hand in 3 goes is very high! Hello??

[/ QUOTE ]

Your tone is annoying...try using your brain too. On those subsequent hands where you hold out for something better, you have to push through more people increasing the likelihood of being called by better hands.

Having 2BBs is the problem, not pushing J8.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Not to mention the fact that J8o is actually 51% vs a random hand, so even that claim is incorrect.

My 'troll detector' has been activated.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, the only reason I am correcting you is because I know none of you play at my level. I mean, u couldn't if you really believe what u are saying. If he was in the BB next hand, yes of course push, but he's not. You people are too push-happy. And why am I a troll? I am explaining my reasoning. You disagree with it, fine. No point in name calling, that's very kindergarten-ish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Continue to play at "your level". You have done nothing but refute the valid points brought up here by saying "you guys arent giving any reasons why I am wrong."

You are not going to get along well on these boards and it has nothing to do with the fact that your ideas are wrong.

Granted, to me these are basic concepts, but there was a time when I may have thought as you did...but I always know its ok to be wrong...you dont. I love the fact you think as you do, and I will let you continue to think as such...

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...coz, after some thought, u know I am right.

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ok troll alert at DEFCON red...Ive been sort of civil, but now you are on ignore.

yep, you're right by the way...fold this hand

[11t]

You sir, are giving awful advice.

[Vuron00]

You have to push.

Even if you were to wait around for a better hand, you'd be calling an all in from the current CO, who is going to have to push in the next 2 hands, also.

Big stack is BB next hand and is definately calling with any 2 so no FE next hand. Current CO will probably push the hand after that, so you'll be calling his all-in and praying nobody else calls. The hand after that, you're either UTG and on autopush or you're paying the BB with half your stack because CO busted out the hand before when he had to push.

[11t]

Hero may be dealt a better hand for showdown value, but hero is more than likely not to be given a more +EV opportunity.

Mathematical fact, deny it if you'd like

[wildzer0]

I'm pushing any 2 here. It sucks, but I think this is the best situation you're going to get - you're likely to be against one player with a random hand. If you wait that's probably not going to be the case.

[async]

With a range of 22+, A2+, KT+, QT+, JT+ (which is actually probably overly generous) for the SB, and any 2 for the BB, pushing is, as noted, EV neutral. Even if the SB is slightly tigther (22+, A2+, KT+, QJ+) it remains more or less neutral.

Even if BB folds 20% of his hands, it is only marginally +EV. In a 20, I'd push, because the 20 players I've encountered often do not correctly understand pot odds. I've seen BBs fold for a 1/2BB bet when they were getting 5:1.

[async]

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I'm pushing any 2 here. It sucks, but I think this is the best situation you're going to get - you're likely to be against one player with a random hand. If you wait that's probably not going to be the case.

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Pushing any 2 here is a mistake. J9 is not, by any means, "any 2". J9o ranks, on the K-S tables, as 77 out of 169 possible holdings. For example, J5o is a clear fold here unless you are quite certain you have a super-tight donk in the BB. (Even if he throws away the worst 1/3 of his potential hands, you are eensy-teensy -EV to push J5o)

[jmillerdls]

It's odd how this is all you have seen. I have seen several people with similar insight on why pushing is correct and have written several reasons of which you are choosing to ignore.

Today is the first day I have seen any of your posts (and I would assume its one of your first few days as you have so few posts), and I have seen nothing but bad commentary from you.

Whether it is you saying how wonderful your lifestyle is because you make 5k a week by one working through Wedensday, or you telling other people they are wrong, without giving any logic (despite what you may claim is logic) makes it clear to me you are just here to be confrontational. You have no desire to add to this forum in any meaningful way.

I have a strong suspicion you are just some $3 SNG player on Stars that thinks it will be fun to say you play the biggest games and are a huge winner, and clearly know the correct answer to every situation. All I know for sure is that I can correctly dismiss any of your posts as being helpful or insightful in any way. Have fun...

[async]

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If push, push any 2 from position or is there a limit to your push hands?

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Push any pair, any A, any K, Q6o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98s+.

[wildzer0]

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"ah hell, I'll push."

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I am trying to keep an open mind while reading this thread, but I really don't see pushing as being a "sure thing" here. Certainly, if I felt strongly that SB or BB would fold with anything but the strongest of holdings, then I would push.

However, in most cases, my sense is that I would rather wait and hope for a better holding on which to risk all my chips.

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It's odd how this is all you have seen. I have seen several people with similar insight on why pushing is correct and have written several reasons of which you are choosing to ignore.

Today is the first day I have seen any of your posts (and I would assume its one of your first few days as you have so few posts), and I have seen nothing but bad commentary from you.

Whether it is you saying how wonderful your lifestyle is because you make 5k a week by one working through Wedensday, or you telling other people they are wrong, without giving any logic (despite what you may claim is logic) makes it clear to me you are just here to be confrontational. You have no desire to add to this forum in any meaningful way.

I have a strong suspicion you are just some $3 SNG player on Stars that thinks it will be fun to say you play the biggest games and are a huge winner, and clearly know the correct answer to every situation. All I know for sure is that I can correctly dismiss any of your posts as being helpful or insightful in any way. Have fun...

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Wow, nice essay. Giving me special attention, I feel all warm inside. I'm sorry that you are jealous of my lifestyle, I cannot help that. I'm also sorry that when someone goes against the braindead pushbotting strategy and actually THINKS about about the situation etc they get hammered. Maybe there should be an auto-reponse on all new posts saying "PUSH!" I dunno why people ask what to do, the answer is inevitably the same. I guess I'm not gonna learn much here, and it may even harm my game to keep reading.

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Having never seen you play, I have no idea if you are a winning or losing poker player.

Having read several of your posts, I can tell that the poker part doesn't matter. You are just a loser.

[45suited]

I think that the OP's stack is just big enough to have a very, very good chance of getting heads up. Think about it:

He pushes. SB still would have to call an additional 255 chips more in order to call. That is 23% of his stack. (He'd be down to t770 if he called and lost - not an insignificant hit to his stack.) AND he still has BB to worry about acting after him. So, the bottom line is that he needs a good hand. But most players aren't going to call off this much of their stack from the SB here. They (I should say I) would push the BB out if I had a hand that I was going to commit this many chips to.

So the bottom line is it is quite likely that the OP will end up heads-up with one of the blinds. His stack is just large enough to make this very likely, IMO.



PartyPoker, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t3800)
UTG+1 (t930)
CO (t610)
Hero (t330)
SB (t1100)
BB (t1230)

[pergesu]

fwiw, I'm the one that initially told him this wasn't a super easy push, and I guess that's why he posted the hand. Hopefully we can get this ish back on track and move the trolling/troll-hunting to another thread.

This hand is really close imo. I don't think he has much FE over the BB at all - BB's probably calling like 80%+ of hands. Which if we put SB on 'M' in SNGPT, and BB at 80%, it's still +EV by like 0.2% if I remember correctly. Anyway, the problem is is that whenever the SB calls, the BB is almost always calling since now he has the chance to bust you AND he has very nice pot odds. So you get called by both players a fair % of the time, and the SB might even be calling as much as 30-40% of hands. When you get called by both players it's truly disastrous, regardless of your range.

I'd rather try to wait for a hand that has at least a decent chance of doubling you up when you go UI. J8o is just not good enough when there's the chance that you're up against two players. You may or may not get this hand...but I think it's a lot better to then just take your BB (I certainly would not push from UTG with this stack since you get called by 2+ players WAY too often). Your opponents will recognize that they have no FE and often give you a walk, or at worst you're probably only going up against one player.

[45suited]

Perg, my point is that it is the best of many bad options. And for the reasoning I gave in my last post, I think that the OP's stack is just large enough that the hand doesn't turn into a call, call, check it down nightmare.

Being able to open push from the button w/ a slightly above average hand seems like as good as we can hope for, IMO.

[pergesu]

I see what you mean, and I agree that his stack is big enough that he's not going to get called in both spots all the time. But he's going to get called in both spots enough of the time that I think it's going to be -EV. I mean when I looked at this, it was only +0.2 or +0.3%, and that's of course only when you get one caller. That's very close, and when you consider the fact that sometimes you get two callers, I think it swings it into the -EV zone. Basically I'm not confident enough that a push is +EV to actually do it. It's all crappy, as you said, but I'd rather hope for a walk in the BB or just race one player.

[pooh74]

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fwiw, I'm the one that initially told him this wasn't a super easy push, and I guess that's why he posted the hand. Hopefully we can get this ish back on track and move the trolling/troll-hunting to another thread.

This hand is really close imo. I don't think he has much FE over the BB at all - BB's probably calling like 80%+ of hands. Which if we put SB on 'M' in SNGPT, and BB at 80%, it's still +EV by like 0.2% if I remember correctly. Anyway, the problem is is that whenever the SB calls, the BB is almost always calling since now he has the chance to bust you AND he has very nice pot odds. So you get called by both players a fair % of the time, and the SB might even be calling as much as 30-40% of hands. When you get called by both players it's truly disastrous, regardless of your range.

I'd rather try to wait for a hand that has at least a decent chance of doubling you up when you go UI. J8o is just not good enough when there's the chance that you're up against two players. You may or may not get this hand...but I think it's a lot better to then just take your BB (I certainly would not push from UTG with this stack since you get called by 2+ players WAY too often). Your opponents will recognize that they have no FE and often give you a walk, or at worst you're probably only going up against one player.

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What 45s said, plus, you need to apply this kind of thinking to the next two hands as well to get a feel for how crappy the situation REALLY is.

Youre not gaining any FE if you wait and only losing EV by having the possibility of MORE players in the hand.

Youre not even assured of having it folded to you again before the blinds hit you, let alone the fact that SB and BB calling is the same probability in later hands as it is now.

So the negative prognosis of your analysis is really only compounded by waiting.

At the risk of sounding clueless, is there any way to predict the EV of waiting to push later? I mean, even if the EV of pushing now with J8o is marginal or slightly negative, I would think the EV of pushing later against more potential callers (albeit with the possibility of two better cards) may be worse.

[pooh74]

wait and hope for a better holding on which to risk all my chips.

all 330 of them.

[45suited]

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At the risk of sounding clueless, is there any way to predict the EV of waiting to push later? I mean, even if the EV of pushing now with J8o is marginal or slightly negative, I would think the EV of pushing later against more potential callers (albeit with the possibility of two better cards) may be worse.

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Honestly guys, as bad as this situation is, I actually would feel 'lucky' that I had the chance to open push this hand from the button.

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wait and hope for a better holding on which to risk all my chips.

all 330 of them.

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What are you getting at?

[microbet]

I don't think it's an obvious push and if I were home I'd play around with SNGPT before responding, but it looks like time to thank UTG for not min-raising, thank CO for not pushing, then push and pray.

[pooh74]

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At the risk of sounding clueless, is there any way to predict the EV of waiting to push later? I mean, even if the EV of pushing now with J8o is marginal or slightly negative, I would think the EV of pushing later against more potential callers (albeit with the possibility of two better cards) may be worse.

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Honestly guys, as bad as this situation is, I actually would feel 'lucky' that I had the chance to open push this hand from the button.

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Me2, I'd be ecstatic to have this spot. The naysayers are ignoring that having 2BBs always sucks...trying to find a "better spot" with 2 BBs is often overly optimistic.

[ZeroPointMachine]

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At the risk of sounding clueless, is there any way to predict the EV of waiting to push later? I mean, even if the EV of pushing now with J8o is marginal or slightly negative, I would think the EV of pushing later against more potential callers (albeit with the possibility of two better cards) may be worse.

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Honestly guys, as bad as this situation is, I actually would feel 'lucky' that I had the chance to open push this hand from the button.

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Me2, I'd be ecstatic to have this spot. The naysayers are ignoring that having 2BBs always sucks...trying to find a "better spot" with 2 BBs is often overly optimistic.

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I push this without thinking.

Now I'm thinking.

Pushing barely EV+ to neutral at best. However, I think this is a situation where the equity of folding is kind of overstated. This is like those UTG hands that look like a fold until you turn the blind equity modeling on and they become huge pushes. I think your current situation justifies reducing the equity of a fold here and makes this a clear push.

[pooh74]

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wait and hope for a better holding on which to risk all my chips.

all 330 of them.

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What are you getting at?

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That your equity in this tourney is already very low. So when talking about risking all of your chips as though you were risking a high likelihood of making the money it is a little misleading. OP already "risked" most of his chips...now he has to find the BEST spot possible to get back into this thing. These "best spots" might not seem so great, but then again, with 330, nothing will seem great.

[downtown]

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After losing the last hand I was left with a seriously short stack. Wait and pray or push? If push, push any 2 from position or is there a limit to your push hands?

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com (http://www.pregopoker.com/hhconv/convert)

UTG (t3800)
UTG+1 (t930)
CO (t610)
Hero (t330)
SB (t1100)
BB (t1230)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero t330 (All-in)</font>

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Hey everyone, I think there's a valuable lesson in here somewhere and it's a situation I've been thinking about for a while. I think those who are worried about being called by BB and SB are right on target. But I am also inclined to push here... wow, it's a situation that is hard, but comes up often. What to do? I don't know. I had been working on making this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=4296379&amp;an=0&amp;page=0#Post 4296379) post for a while, so now's as good a time as any to post it. I think it's debatable, just interested in hearing all sides. Trolls, you are not welcome in the other thread!!!

[Hendricks433]

Theyve explained to you many times why your fold was bad. You just close your ears or something and dont let anything in. Well Im done arguing and not talking to you anymore.

[11t]

Okay, ICM takes into account many things. One thing it does not take into account is multiway pots.

By pushing here you are giving yourself the best chance to get HU and race. You have probably little to no fold equity. I would rather take this race HU than get 33 next hand and race 3 other stacks and bust.

ICM counts for a lot, but not everything. There is a reason why there is a range of -EV to +EV decisions where SNGPT indicates marginal decisions. In such places there are other factors that should weigh heavily in your decision. This is one of those cases.

I push here, this is probably the most +EV spot you are going to get. J8os is a decent hand and the BB is very likely to call with like 95% of his hands and fold 72os.

I think the key idea here is the likelyhood of the SB folding which I think is decently high.

Wow, I had an almost identical situation occur last night in $11, except I was in small blind and had J9o, just a little over 300 chips. I called for 150, he then raised for my remainder. Guess I have to call here, right? He had KK and I lost. After the game I felt I made a horrible mistake... reading this thread has made me reconsider though.

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wait and hope for a better holding on which to risk all my chips.

all 330 of them.

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What are you getting at?

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That your equity in this tourney is already very low. So when talking about risking all of your chips as though you were risking a high likelihood of making the money it is a little misleading. OP already "risked" most of his chips...now he has to find the BEST spot possible to get back into this thing. These "best spots" might not seem so great, but then again, with 330, nothing will seem great.

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True, but its all the equity you've got.

The way I see it, this is a marginal situation in either case. I would probably go with my intuition and reads - but I certainly do not see that it is a slam-dunk case.

[GtrHtr]

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fwiw, I'm the one that initially told him this wasn't a super easy push, and I guess that's why he posted the hand. Hopefully we can get this ish back on track and move the trolling/troll-hunting to another thread.

This hand is really close imo. I don't think he has much FE over the BB at all - BB's probably calling like 80%+ of hands. Which if we put SB on 'M' in SNGPT, and BB at 80%, it's still +EV by like 0.2% if I remember correctly. Anyway, the problem is is that whenever the SB calls, the BB is almost always calling since now he has the chance to bust you AND he has very nice pot odds. So you get called by both players a fair % of the time, and the SB might even be calling as much as 30-40% of hands. When you get called by both players it's truly disastrous, regardless of your range.

I'd rather try to wait for a hand that has at least a decent chance of doubling you up when you go UI. J8o is just not good enough when there's the chance that you're up against two players. You may or may not get this hand...but I think it's a lot better to then just take your BB (I certainly would not push from UTG with this stack since you get called by 2+ players WAY too often). Your opponents will recognize that they have no FE and often give you a walk, or at worst you're probably only going up against one player.

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See what you started? NoOb Troll.

It's a fairly +EV push btw, which all but a few posters acknowledge, assuming the broader ranges you'd put BB on.

I think the problem comes when SB and BB "team up" and both call and check it down.

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Hero may be dealt a better hand for showdown value, but hero is more than likely not to be given a more +EV opportunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe, maybe not. For sure you'll be dealt a better hand than j8 offsuit.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's beside the point. In Hero's situation, the most number of potential callers is 2. If Hero folds and waits for better cards than J8o, there are now 5 possible opponents who may also pick up better cards themselves.

The chances of Hero getting better cards in the next three hands may be good (which I assume is your rationale for folding), but the chances of one of the other five players getting even better cards are higher.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
What 45s said, plus, you need to apply this kind of thinking to the next two hands as well to get a feel for how crappy the situation REALLY is.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm saying you don't need to push any of the next couple hands. In all likelihood, you'll end up racing in the BB. If you happen to get lucky enough to get a nice hand that you can shove, awesome. It's just better to race or even get a walk in the BB than it is to make EXTREMELY marginal pushes for your entire stack, even though it's quite small.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What 45s said, plus, you need to apply this kind of thinking to the next two hands as well to get a feel for how crappy the situation REALLY is.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm saying you don't need to push any of the next couple hands. In all likelihood, you'll end up racing in the BB. If you happen to get lucky enough to get a nice hand that you can shove, awesome. It's just better to race or even get a walk in the BB than it is to make EXTREMELY marginal pushes for your entire stack, even though it's quite small.

[/ QUOTE ]

You want to get the most out of that stack in situations like these. It isnt about giving up, its all about the fact that you have an opportunity here to make HALF of the remaining players fold and to be HU a majority of the time. Your FE against SB is real...that's the crux of the argument.

If I had t140 I would wait for a better hand.

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, I had an almost identical situation occur last night in $11, except I was in small blind and had J9o, just a little over 300 chips. I called for 150, he then raised for my remainder. Guess I have to call here, right? He had KK and I lost. After the game I felt I made a horrible mistake... reading this thread has made me reconsider though.

[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldn't be calling here - either push or fold with 4BB left. If he had a smaller to mid stack then I'd say push since he would be much more likely to fold. If he had a very large stack then it would be a tougher decision but still probably a push for me with J9o.

rvg

[ QUOTE ]
Is this REALLY what people think when playing poker? I always wanted to know.

All I have to say is...LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain. Are your hand selection requirements the same from UTG as in late position?

If not, why does that answer not apply equally here?

[microbet]

SNGPT doesn't allow for multiple callers, but ICM does, or at least it doesn't stop you. It just makes the calcs more complicated. Some new poster that is interested in learning how to do these types of calcs should make a new thread and do this.

[FlyWf]

I think you're forgetting how often some idiot openlimps at the 22s. You get 3 more hands but only 1 that you can be sure to be first to act. You can wait and race with an average hand in the BB, but you might get a multiway pot and you obviously have no FE.

Also, I think you guys are overestimating how loose the blinds will be here. The SB will want a decent hand to call here, and the BB will make some incorrect folds. I guarantee that with more confidence than Jukel can guarantee getting a better hand by the blinds.

[ QUOTE ]
You are not worthy to tie my shoe laces.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

[jmillerdls]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is this REALLY what people think when playing poker? I always wanted to know.

All I have to say is...LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain. Are your hand selection requirements the same from UTG as in late position?

If not, why does that answer not apply equally here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop! LOL Stop! I am laughing too much!

[/ QUOTE ]

AKA: I have no answer, so I'll make it look like your question was pointless even though it punches holes in my argument that I cannot defend.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What 45s said, plus, you need to apply this kind of thinking to the next two hands as well to get a feel for how crappy the situation REALLY is.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm saying you don't need to push any of the next couple hands. In all likelihood, you'll end up racing in the BB. If you happen to get lucky enough to get a nice hand that you can shove, awesome. It's just better to race or even get a walk in the BB than it is to make EXTREMELY marginal pushes for your entire stack, even though it's quite small.

[/ QUOTE ]

You want to get the most out of that stack in situations like these. It isnt about giving up, its all about the fact that you have an opportunity here to make HALF of the remaining players fold and to be HU a majority of the time. Your FE against SB is real...that's the crux of the argument.

If I had t140 I would wait for a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think most of this boils down to how often do SB and BB call. I think BB's calling 75%+ of hands. However when SB calls (how much? 15% 25%?), BB will call with 100% of hands because he's getting pot odds and probably knows you're "supposed" to try to eliminate the shorty all in.

So 15% of the time you're called in two spots, by a 15% hand range and a 100% hand range. 63.7% of the time you get called by a 75% hand range, and 21.2% of the time you don't get called. So let's figure out the equities:

vs two opponents (15% and 100%): 24.11% equity in the hand, 15% tourney equity if you win. So (.2411 * .15) = 3.6% tourney equity after this hand

vs one opponent (75%): 46% equity in the hand, 11.6% tourney equity if you win. (.26 * .116) = 3% tourney equity.

When they both fold: 9% tourney equity

Now weighting them:
.15 * .036 = 0.5%
.637 * .03 = 1.9%
.212 * .09 = 1.9%

Add em up and you get 4.3% equity vs 5.6% equity if you fold.

That took a little while /images/graemlins/smile.gif So I'm not going to do it for a different call range for the BB. But as you can see, they'll both have to be playing a bit tighter for a push to be +EV.

[pergesu]

One last thing, all trolls and troll-hunters or anyone who has brought up or even thought of making a post which includes the word "troll" (excluding this one, of course /images/graemlins/smile.gif) should shut the [censored] up and take it to PM.

[caretaker1]

[ QUOTE ]
I call BS

[/ QUOTE ]

Like the terminology, think I may adopt it.

[pooh74]

So you feel that your EV is higher by waiting?

IOW, you argue that the equity you save by folding on this hand is more than the equity you lose on subsequent hands where you have: more players acting after you, the possibility of a raise before you, and a worse hand (this last point I will concede as irrelevent).

The issue comes down to whether your FE is so small so as to negate position and being open folded to. I dont think it is here...with less chips I would agree.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
One last thing, all trolls and troll-hunters or anyone who has brought up or even thought of making a post which includes the word "troll" (excluding this one, of course /images/graemlins/smile.gif) should shut the [censored] up and take it to PM.

[/ QUOTE ]

People call em as they see them bro... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[pergesu]

Yeah, I felt like it was, and then did some math that strengthened that opinion.

I hear what you're saying, and it's similar to the situations you and I have talked about in which a successful loose steal opens the door to a larger number of even greater +EV situations. However we've yet to come to a reasonable conclusion on that, and anyway we should start with analyzing the EV of pushing this particular hand.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I felt like it was, and then did some math that strengthened that opinion.

I hear what you're saying, and it's similar to the situations you and I have talked about in which a successful loose steal opens the door to a larger number of even greater +EV situations. However we've yet to come to a reasonable conclusion on that, and anyway we should start with analyzing the EV of pushing this particular hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Future situations should always have a bearing on the present. If this is -EV, then I dont see how you are going to get a better spot enough of the time to find a +EV.

Its sort of akin to Betgo's argument that we should wait for the blinds to hit us because then EVERY decision will be +EV. There is something you are not taking into account in the math because I don't buy it. But nice work nonetheless.

[pergesu]

I'm saying the same thing as betgo then. If you get a +EV push, awesome, take it. If not, just call your stack in the BB or get a walk if you're lucky.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I felt like it was, and then did some math that strengthened that opinion.

I hear what you're saying, and it's similar to the situations you and I have talked about in which a successful loose steal opens the door to a larger number of even greater +EV situations. However we've yet to come to a reasonable conclusion on that, and anyway we should start with analyzing the EV of pushing this particular hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is an additional (or maybe just diff.) comment. My FE is nothing, but with t330 I still have value in terms of $EV. What I would hope would happen, is that the BB calls and I suckout or have him dominated. Now I have t735 and almost have some FE which I can then parlay into something - I hope.

[curtains]

my instinct is to fold btw, but if you are playing opps who might fold a decent % in BB then you shuold likely push. however at the 215s Id fold this in a flash and hope to actually be dealt a good hand.

[curtains]

changed my mind, pushing is probably correct. I should know this, but Im so great that Ive never been this shortstacked before.

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I felt like it was, and then did some math that strengthened that opinion.

I hear what you're saying, and it's similar to the situations you and I have talked about in which a successful loose steal opens the door to a larger number of even greater +EV situations. However we've yet to come to a reasonable conclusion on that, and anyway we should start with analyzing the EV of pushing this particular hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Future situations should always have a bearing on the present. If this is -EV, then I dont see how you are going to get a better spot enough of the time to find a +EV.

Its sort of akin to Betgo's argument that we should wait for the blinds to hit us because then EVERY decision will be +EV. There is something you are not taking into account in the math because I don't buy it. But nice work nonetheless.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what is not being taken into account in the math is the true value of your tournament equity if you fold this hand. ICM does not account for the fact that your stack is crippled. With virtually no potential future FE your stack is not really worth what ICM says it is. You have a small, but real, amount of FE here. If you pass it up it is gone.

I think when the blinds are still relatively low for the rest of the table, but your stack is so small that you have no fold equity you really have less tournament equity than ICM calculates.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I felt like it was, and then did some math that strengthened that opinion.

I hear what you're saying, and it's similar to the situations you and I have talked about in which a successful loose steal opens the door to a larger number of even greater +EV situations. However we've yet to come to a reasonable conclusion on that, and anyway we should start with analyzing the EV of pushing this particular hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Future situations should always have a bearing on the present. If this is -EV, then I dont see how you are going to get a better spot enough of the time to find a +EV.

Its sort of akin to Betgo's argument that we should wait for the blinds to hit us because then EVERY decision will be +EV. There is something you are not taking into account in the math because I don't buy it. But nice work nonetheless.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what is not being taken into account in the math is the true value of your tournament equity if you fold this hand. ICM does not account for the fact that your stack is crippled. With virtually no potential future FE your stack is not really worth what ICM says it is. You have a small, but real, amount of FE here. If you pass it up it is gone.

I think when the blinds are still relatively low for the rest of the table, but your stack is so small that you have no fold equity you really have less tournament equity than ICM calculates.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? How could you have less tourney equity than ICM calculates here? Of course it doesn't take into account FE - it never does.

In the math I showed, I included your FE on this particular hand. If you argue that when you win (either uncontested or when called) then you have more FE, I agree with that...but you still need to calculate the equity of this particular hand to use as a baseline before making adjustments for subsequent hands. I showed that a fold shows a 1.3% difference in equity vs a call. Is the equity you gain on subsequent hands a greater difference than that? I don't know, and it's tough to figure out...but as a general rule I'm not going to make a play that loses me 1.3% equity.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I felt like it was, and then did some math that strengthened that opinion.

I hear what you're saying, and it's similar to the situations you and I have talked about in which a successful loose steal opens the door to a larger number of even greater +EV situations. However we've yet to come to a reasonable conclusion on that, and anyway we should start with analyzing the EV of pushing this particular hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Future situations should always have a bearing on the present. If this is -EV, then I dont see how you are going to get a better spot enough of the time to find a +EV.

Its sort of akin to Betgo's argument that we should wait for the blinds to hit us because then EVERY decision will be +EV. There is something you are not taking into account in the math because I don't buy it. But nice work nonetheless.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what is not being taken into account in the math is the true value of your tournament equity if you fold this hand. ICM does not account for the fact that your stack is crippled. With virtually no potential future FE your stack is not really worth what ICM says it is. You have a small, but real, amount of FE here. If you pass it up it is gone.

I think when the blinds are still relatively low for the rest of the table, but your stack is so small that you have no fold equity you really have less tournament equity than ICM calculates.

[/ QUOTE ]

No I dont think thats it. The calling ranges you put your opponents on is basically a function of what you consider your FE to be. After converting those chips to $ (ICM) you have two equities amounts. The FE is factored in there.

[ZeroPointMachine]

ICM assumes that all stacks are equally playable. It doesn't give you an extra dose of equity because you have a monster stack and know you can steam roll the table and it doesn't subtract any equity when your stack is so small you have no moves left to make.

It calculates finish distribution based on relative stack sizes and your equity based on payout structure.

I would argue that when your stack is really small this model over values it.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]

changed my mind, pushing is probably correct. I should know this, but Im so great that Ive never been this shortstacked before.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, that's twice in two days, ur getting old or something /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM assumes that all stacks are equally playable. It doesn't give you an extra dose of equity because you have a monster stack and know you can steam roll the table and it doesn't subtract any equity when your stack is so small you have no moves left to make.

It calculates finish distribution based on relative stack sizes and your equity based on payout structure.

I would argue that when your stack is really small this model over values it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I misunderstood you previously. I guess if having a BS gives you extra EV than ICM dictates (by being able to steamroll) then it should follow that the EV must come from somewhere?

nice

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
I would argue that when your stack is really small this model over values it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Argue it then /images/graemlins/smile.gif

To take a very extreme situation, you're HU with stacks of 7999/1. According to ICM, big stack has 50% equity and smallie has 30% equity. Overvalued? Of course not.

That's an extreme case, and you don't have to (and can't, in fact) argue that ICM overvalues the small stack. I am however interested to hear your argument as to what my math is missing here (and I really think there probably is something, I just don't know what it is).

[tewall]

General tournament theory states that chips are worth more as the stack sizes go down, so if anything ICM should be undervaluing the true equity here, not overvaluing it.

Assuming the big stack knows how to use it to advantage, I'd assume the missing equity comes from the average stacks. This makes sense because the average stacks are the easiest to bully; big stacks have to respect other big stacks, and small stacks have pot odds to call anything, so the average ones are the ones susceptible to being stolen from, and hence the likely ones to supply the "missing" equity.

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would argue that when your stack is really small this model over values it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Argue it then /images/graemlins/smile.gif

To take a very extreme situation, you're HU with stacks of 7999/1. According to ICM, big stack has 50% equity and smallie has 30% equity. Overvalued? Of course not.

That's an extreme case, and you don't have to (and can't, in fact) argue that ICM overvalues the small stack. I am however interested to hear your argument as to what my math is missing here (and I really think there probably is something, I just don't know what it is).

[/ QUOTE ]

EDIT: All of the following is meant to apply to 5-8 handed situations such as in OP.

I think your calculations were correct (I can't really check them now), but I think the model breaks down here.

ICM assumes that everybody is of equal skill. But what does that really mean? It means every player will make the same average EV decisions.

When your stack gets this crippled you no longer have the opportunity due to lost FE and the limited number of hands you can play before being blinded out to pick your spots.

The rest of the table is now "out playing" you because they can make better +EV decisions than you can possibly make.

Your relative skill level at the table is now very low. ICM does not account for this.

Blind equity modeling actually got me thinking about another problem with short stack calculations.

If you turn on the blind equity modeling when you are UTG you get all kinds of push hands that were folds from UTG+1 because now you are calculating your fold EV based on the potential of losing your blind some percentage of the time next hand. Your position was better UTG+1, same stack, same cards, and the $EV of pushing was actually higher. But SNGPT says not to push because we're not UTG and it is not discounting the value of our stack based on paying the blind next hand and therefore calculates the value of folding as higher. The only thing you gain is the value of seeing one more hand. This is a real value, but it is small and hard to quantify.(If sombody can help here I would appreciate it)

If you can accept blind equity modeling affecting your EVfold from UTG(EVfold=EVutg-x%BB), wouldn't the next logical extention be that:

EVfold from UTG+1=EVutg-x%BB+(the value of one unseen hand)
EVfold from UTG+2=EVutg-x%BB+(the value of two unseen hands)

This is starting to ramble and I'm hungover at work. I'll let you chew on it for a little while and then see where we are at when I get home in a little while.

[FlyWf]

The other guy made a long post that might have even had scary maths in it, but here's my attempt:
FE does not have a linear relationship with stack size. Acquiring chips without showdowns is vital to winning SNGs.
Three dots
ICM overvalues FEless stacks at the expense of medium stacks.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
The other guy made a long post that might have even had scary maths in it, but here's my attempt:
FE does not have a linear relationship with stack size. Acquiring chips without showdowns is vital to winning SNGs.
Three dots
ICM overvalues FEless stacks at the expense of medium stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]


What?

[FlyWf]

There is little utility in going from 100 to 150 chips when the BB is 100. You will not be able to get anyone to fold. Getting up to ~400 chips at least makes it a decision.
Specific example:
200 chips, 50/100 blinds, you push from the BB. You're giving him 3:1 on the call. Increase your stack to 400 and you give him 5:3, odds that provoke folds. But there's no difference between "outchipping you by 1" and "outchipping you by 5000."
Ability to make your opponents fold preflop is a function of your stacksize, but it's not linear.

[Snarf]

I have two questions.

#1. Jukel- did you lurk at all on 2+2 before signing and flaming some seriuosly good/smart guys?
#2. Is it possible to mute/ignore someone? If so please PM me and explain.

With the ranges that people are putting the SB on would it be more realistic for the SB to isolate rather than flat call?

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
There is little utility in going from 100 to 150 chips when the BB is 100. You will not be able to get anyone to fold. Getting up to ~400 chips at least makes it a decision.
Specific example:
200 chips, 50/100 blinds, you push from the BB. You're giving him 3:1 on the call. Increase your stack to 400 and you give him 5:3, odds that provoke folds. But there's no difference between "outchipping you by 1" and "outchipping you by 5000."
Ability to make your opponents fold preflop is a function of your stacksize, but it's not linear.

[/ QUOTE ]

Completely agree with you. ICM does break down when stacks get extremely low. For example, a player with 300 chips when the BB is at 30 has the same ICM value as he does when the BB is at 400 which clearly wouldn't be the case. Additionally, this player would have the same ICM value if he was going to post the 400 chip BB in 1 hand or in 6 hands. Remember, ICM is supposed to give you your fair market value.

Clearly, if you had the opportunity to "buy" this players 400 stack and take over for him for whatever value ICM says it is worth then you would prefer the 30 BB over the 400 BB and you would always prefer being further away from having to post the blinds.

ICM does not take "time" or lack there of it, imminent blinding out or complete lack of Fold Equity into account. So, it undervalues short stacks when the blinds are low and overvalues them when the blinds are high and, when stacks are low and blinds are high the short stacks ICM drops each hand as he gets closer to being forced to post the blinds.

rvg

[HesseJam]

So, I 've read allmost all posts and I think pushing is best here. Three reasons:

1) J8o with two possible callers is good enough outright to justify risking the little equity that you have left.
2) Winning this push will not win you the tourney nor will it relieve much of the pressure. You will have to go all-in again pretty soon anyway. It is better to win the next one with more than 330 chips. This will get you some place.
3) In that spot, you do not so much play your cards but the situation. The situation here is one of the better ones. IMO, the optimum situation would be to call behind a big stack's all-in (he should have a lot of FE) to get HU with him with a chance to triple up. The current chip distribution will make this very unlikely however. You are sitting in front of the bigger stacks. Moreover, during the next hands everybody will have to push through the big stack, so they will tighten up and you will not enter HU with the big stack with a lot of dead money included.

So the plan should be to push here, win the HU and push at the next opportunity, preferably against the big stack in SB and BB, and win this one too. Then you could suddenly be looking at 1300 chips and chalk up another ITM.

To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this:
When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around.

A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this:
When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around.

A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really feel like SNGPT is doing people a diservice on this particular hand.

To the above poster and Perg...I've thought about this "high likely hood of two callers" thing and have come to the conclusion it is nowhere near the frequency that you say. Remember, for SB to call, he has to call 1/4 of his stack, he will likely isolate a good portion of the time and BB will fold.

Also, saying that BB will call 100% of the time at the 22s is absurd thinking about it. Yes, maybe he SHOULD, but many players will surely fold bottom 20-30%, even when the SB flat calls (or maybe I should say ESPECIALLY when the SB flat calls).

This is a +EV push and likely to be the last one available until you make a +EV call in the BB with 57o.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this:
When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around.

A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really feel like SNGPT is doing people a diservice on this particular hand.

To the above poster and Perg...I've thought about this "high likely hood of two callers" thing and have come to the conclusion it is nowhere near the frequency that you say. Remember, for SB to call, he has to call 1/4 of his stack, he will likely isolate a good portion of the time and BB will fold.

Also, saying that BB will call 100% of the time at the 22s is absurd thinking about it. Yes, maybe he SHOULD, but many players will surely fold bottom 20-30%, even when the SB flat calls (or maybe I should say ESPECIALLY when the SB flat calls).

This is a +EV push and likely to be the last one available until you make a +EV call in the BB with 57o.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have no specified reads on SB/BB, why not assume they understand basic pot-odds and tournament theory? Alot of clear cut answers could easily be turned around to the opposite if we give very specific reads on the opponents. While we have none here, I think you might be trying to add them to support your theory better.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To you who are playing around with SNGPT, remember this:
When SB calls SNGPT automatically assumes that BB folds, this is clearly not the case at this hand! Rather the other way around.

A push here should be nowhere near neutral EV, I think I fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really feel like SNGPT is doing people a diservice on this particular hand.

To the above poster and Perg...I've thought about this "high likely hood of two callers" thing and have come to the conclusion it is nowhere near the frequency that you say. Remember, for SB to call, he has to call 1/4 of his stack, he will likely isolate a good portion of the time and BB will fold.

Also, saying that BB will call 100% of the time at the 22s is absurd thinking about it. Yes, maybe he SHOULD, but many players will surely fold bottom 20-30%, even when the SB flat calls (or maybe I should say ESPECIALLY when the SB flat calls).

This is a +EV push and likely to be the last one available until you make a +EV call in the BB with 57o.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have no specified reads on SB/BB, why not assume they understand basic pot-odds and tournament theory? Alot of clear cut answers could easily be turned around to the opposite if we give very specific reads on the opponents. While we have none here, I think you might be trying to add them to support your theory better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if you were SB and thought your Ax was good against button's raise would you flat call or RR here? I think flat calling by SB is a mistake so I dont see why we are all discussing there being two callers as though it were a common occurrence.

[tigerite]

I would move all-in here, it seems pretty brainless to me in all honesty.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
I would move all-in here, it seems pretty brainless to me in all honesty.

[/ QUOTE ]

welcome to my world...I thought i was just "passing by" in this thread and lo and behold, 50 posts later...I'm still here defending this stupid push.

[citanul]

Jukel,

Please start making posts with content or be banned.

c

[ QUOTE ]
Hank, I wouldn't waste my breath if I were you. These clowns won't listen to reason. Just be glad that we are thinking players rather than braindead pushbotters. You are correct to question the "common consensus" here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are the clown here.

As much as I may not understand why this is an obvious push, you are characterizing it as an obvious fold - when it is clearly not that either.

The difference is that you are a complete [censored], while most of the people here actually take the time to think about what they are doing.

IMHO you should really shut the f*ck up because you just sound like an idiot.

[Gramps]

I think this is a spot where your typical 2+2'er "pushbot" is susceptible to a leak in their game. I love playing against players that push crap in spots like this (J8 isn't crap, but some people go way too far here, esp. with 3-5 BB).

With J8, it's a function of BB's understanding of pot odds (and to a lesser extent, SB coupled with his understanding of your pushing range). In the 215s I'd fold, don't know how often a "typical" BB folds here in the 22s. If a BB fold isn't that uncommon here, push that shiat. I'd always push against a known tightie with a lack of pot odds understanding.

And just because this hand is +cev to push, doesn't necessarily mean it's +$EV to push. You're putting at risk future opportunities here with your tourney life on the line, that has to factor in to your decision-making.

On average you'll get your chips in in a better spot if you wait here - that's countered by the fact that when you do win your J8 puhs, you'll still get those same opportunities, have more FE to steal, etc., etc.

[LALDAAS]

[ QUOTE ]
IMHO you should really shut the f*ck up because you just sound like an idiot.

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Excellent!

Reguardless of the trolls pig headedness, I my self am still a nOOB as far SnG's go,I learned more from this thread then I learned (today on my lunch hour)reading the ALL-IN section in TPFAP.

[pooh74]

And just because this hand is +cev to push, doesn't necessarily mean it's +$EV to push

Yes it does...

[tigerite]

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I think this is a spot where your typical 2+2'er "pushbot" is susceptible to a leak in their game. I love playing against players that push crap in spots like this (J8 isn't crap, but some people go way too far here, esp. with 3-5 BB).

With J8, it's a function of BB's understanding of pot odds (and to a lesser extent, SB coupled with his understanding of your pushing range). In the 215s I'd fold, don't know how often a "typical" BB folds here in the 22s. If a BB fold isn't that uncommon here, push that shiat. I'd always push against a known tightie with a lack of pot odds understanding.

And just because this hand is +cev to push, doesn't necessarily mean it's +$EV to push. You're putting at risk future opportunities here with your tourney life on the line, that has to factor in to your decision-making.

On average you'll get your chips in in a better spot if you wait here - that's countered by the fact that when you do win your J8 puhs, you'll still get those same opportunities, have more FE to steal, etc., etc.

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Well J8o is about as low as I'd go here, I wouldn't be pushing with any two that's for sure.

[ZeroPointMachine]

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I think this is a spot where your typical 2+2'er "pushbot" is susceptible to a leak in their game. I love playing against players that push crap in spots like this (J8 isn't crap, but some people go way too far here, esp. with 3-5 BB).

With J8, it's a function of BB's understanding of pot odds (and to a lesser extent, SB coupled with his understanding of your pushing range). In the 215s I'd fold, don't know how often a "typical" BB folds here in the 22s. If a BB fold isn't that uncommon here, push that shiat. I'd always push against a known tightie with a lack of pot odds understanding.

And just because this hand is +cev to push, doesn't necessarily mean it's +$EV to push. You're putting at risk future opportunities here with your tourney life on the line, that has to factor in to your decision-making.

On average you'll get your chips in in a better spot if you wait here - that's countered by the fact that when you do win your J8 puhs, you'll still get those same opportunities, have more FE to steal, etc., etc.

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Well J8o is about as low as I'd go here, I wouldn't be pushing with any two that's for sure.

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I'm pushing almost any 2 here. Anything with more than 35% equity verse a random hand should be pushed here. Here you have the chance to play against a random hand. That is not going to happen again in this tournament.

[pooh74]

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I think this is a spot where your typical 2+2'er "pushbot" is susceptible to a leak in their game. I love playing against players that push crap in spots like this (J8 isn't crap, but some people go way too far here, esp. with 3-5 BB).

With J8, it's a function of BB's understanding of pot odds (and to a lesser extent, SB coupled with his understanding of your pushing range). In the 215s I'd fold, don't know how often a "typical" BB folds here in the 22s. If a BB fold isn't that uncommon here, push that shiat. I'd always push against a known tightie with a lack of pot odds understanding.

And just because this hand is +cev to push, doesn't necessarily mean it's +$EV to push. You're putting at risk future opportunities here with your tourney life on the line, that has to factor in to your decision-making.

On average you'll get your chips in in a better spot if you wait here - that's countered by the fact that when you do win your J8 puhs, you'll still get those same opportunities, have more FE to steal, etc., etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well J8o is about as low as I'd go here, I wouldn't be pushing with any two that's for sure.

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I'm pushing almost any 2 here. Anything with more than 35% equity verse a random hand should be pushed here. Here you have the chance to play against a random hand. That is not going to happen again in this tournament.

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I wouldnt go that far, but J8 to me seems like plenty.

[microbet]

I don't know why I'm rechiming in here, well, I am bored.

Like I said, looks like a push, but it's close. Pushing any two is pretty crazy. If I kept getting terrible terrible cards, I'd just take the BB.

[pooh74]

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I don't know why I'm rechiming in here, well, I am bored.



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ditto that...im locking myself out of this thread...the law of diminishing returns has taken over.

[Gramps]

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I'm pushing almost any 2 here. Anything with more than 35% equity verse a random hand should be pushed here. Here you have the chance to play against a random hand. That is not going to happen again in this tournament.

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Ummm...so if you fold the J8, push one of your next three hands and it's folded to the BB, he's not going to have a random hand? Pushing any two is absolutely awful (absent an overly tight BB) and a leak a lot of pushbot players have. Chip EV does not = $EV in situations like this. It's nice for formulaic analysis and writing software, but it doesn't hold in spots like this when losing means you're out and you miss out on future +EV opportunities you would (on average) have had that are much better than the one you took.

I absolutely love playing against players who have this kind of pushing mentality in spots like this, more +$EV opportunities for me to gamble with a smaller portion of my stack against these players.

[pooh74]

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I'm pushing almost any 2 here. Anything with more than 35% equity verse a random hand should be pushed here. Here you have the chance to play against a random hand. That is not going to happen again in this tournament.

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Ummm...so if you fold the J8, push one of your next three hands and it's folded to the BB, he's not going to have a random hand? Pushing any two is absolutely awful (absent an overly tight BB) and a leak a lot of pushbot players have. Chip EV does not = $EV in situations like this. It's nice for formulaic analysis and writing software, but it doesn't hold in spots like this when losing means you're out and you miss out on future +EV opportunities you would (on average) have had that are much better than the one you took.

I absolutely love playing against players who have this kind of pushing mentality in spots like this, more +$EV opportunities for me to gamble with a smaller portion of my stack against these players.

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You're thinking about it from "your" point of view and not Hero's. What future +EV situation is he passing on? Of course as the BB you love calling here and taking advantage of the "pushbot" but this hand has nothing to do with "pushbotting"...it is simply an opportunity which may be your last to get HU against a random hand with a "decent" holding 3way.

If you give me an example of waiting for the more +EV opp that comes along I'd be curious.

Also, +cEV is surely +$EV with 2BBs as the shortstack, unless I am misunderstanding something.

I agree that any 2 though is too much.

[ZeroPointMachine]

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I'm pushing almost any 2 here. Anything with more than 35% equity verse a random hand should be pushed here. Here you have the chance to play against a random hand. That is not going to happen again in this tournament.

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Ummm...so if you fold the J8, push one of your next three hands and it's folded to the BB, he's not going to have a random hand? Pushing any two is absolutely awful (absent an overly tight BB) and a leak a lot of pushbot players have. Chip EV does not = $EV in situations like this. It's nice for formulaic analysis and writing software, but it doesn't hold in spots like this when losing means you're out and you miss out on future +EV opportunities you would (on average) have had that are much better than the one you took.

I absolutely love playing against players who have this kind of pushing mentality in spots like this, more +$EV opportunities for me to gamble with a smaller portion of my stack against these players.

[/ QUOTE ]

You fold here and hope what?

In the next three hands I might get a better hand, and maybe nobody else will have already entered the pot(with a much better than random hand), and maybe those extra hands I'm pushing through won't wakeup with anything, and then maybe I can win against the big blinds random hand since he is calling anyway and if all else fails I can call from the big blind against one or more villains who have voluntarily entered the pot with better than random hands.

Pushing here is not giving up.

It is making the best possible move given your diminishing options.

Not pushing here is giving up.

[Gramps]

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You're thinking about it from "your" point of view and not Hero's. What future +EV situation is he passing on? Of course as the BB you love calling here and taking advantage of the "pushbot" but this hand has nothing to do with "pushbotting"...it is simply an opportunity which may be your last to get HU against a random hand with a "decent" holding 3way.

If you give me an example of waiting for the more +EV opp that comes along I'd be curious.

Also, +cEV is surely +$EV with 2BBs as the shortstack, unless I am misunderstanding something.

I agree that any 2 though is too much.

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The CO, UTG+1, UTG, and (worst-case scenario) BB hands that he can make a stand on/push on. Most of the time Hero will get a (more than slightly) better hand that he can push acting first with (a few more people behind him too, but still). If he pushes J8 and loses (which should happen ~ 50% of the time if BB (and to a lesser extent SB) isn't overly tight), he misses out on future +EV (expected) hand(s) - (i.e., let's say he folds the button and CO, then gets KJs UTG+1 and pushes acting first).

I.e., when it's your tourney life on the line, sometimes you pass up slightly +EV plays so you don't miss out on future higher (expected) +EV plays (that you now don't get as you're out of the tourney). There's so many variables in play that it's hard to put exact numbers on it, one of those "feel" things in a lot of spots. And the fact that if Hero waits til UTG+1 or UTG to push and wins against the BB, his FE is still pretty weak makes pushing J8 better than it otherwise would be. That's probably slightly counterbalanced by the relative chips stack sizes at the table - he probably has a little more FE after winning one showdown than he would against several 1500 stacks (since people calling him (Hero having ~500-800 chips) and losing lose their FE, etc.)

[pooh74]

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You're thinking about it from "your" point of view and not Hero's. What future +EV situation is he passing on? Of course as the BB you love calling here and taking advantage of the "pushbot" but this hand has nothing to do with "pushbotting"...it is simply an opportunity which may be your last to get HU against a random hand with a "decent" holding 3way.

If you give me an example of waiting for the more +EV opp that comes along I'd be curious.

Also, +cEV is surely +$EV with 2BBs as the shortstack, unless I am misunderstanding something.

I agree that any 2 though is too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

The CO, UTG+1, UTG, and (worst-case scenario) BB hands that he can make a stand on/push on. Most of the time Hero will get a (more than slightly) better hand that he can push acting first with (a few more people behind him too, but still). If he pushes J8 and loses (which should happen ~ 50% of the time if BB (and to a lesser extent SB) isn't overly tight), he misses out on future +EV (expected) hand(s) - (i.e., let's say he folds the button and CO, then gets KJs UTG+1 and pushes acting first).

I.e., when it's your tourney life on the line, sometimes you pass up slightly +EV plays so you don't miss out on future higher (expected) +EV plays (that you now don't get as you're out of the tourney). There's so many variables in play that it's hard to put exact numbers on it, one of those "feel" things in a lot of spots. And the fact that if Hero waits til UTG+1 or UTG to push and wins against the BB, his FE is still pretty weak makes pushing J8 better than it otherwise would be. That's probably slightly counterbalanced by the relative chips stack sizes at the table - he probably has a little more FE after winning one showdown than he would against several 1500 stacks (since people calling him (Hero having ~500-800 chips) and losing lose their FE, etc.)

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hmmm...ok, I hear ya, but I still see this very simply.

I am saying that Hero has x amount of FE over the SB with his measley stack. Now, with the action to hero on button hero is presented with a 3 way game and if we agree that he has FE over a player, even just 1 player then we can move on to step 2 which is waiting.

Step 2, Hero folded J8, now hero still has the same FE over the remaining players from the CO, he either has a better or worse hand, equally possible BTW, but now has less EV because there are 3 players left to act.

The problem is both simple and hard. It comes down to whether the loss in EV by having more players left to act is greater than the sum of the likelyhood of getting a better hand, the amount that better hand adds to your EV, and whether you can open the pot or not. I say the loss in EV is greater, you say it is not. I really cant prove it...I'm sorry, but you're right it is feel.