You gotta see this, placing bets on terroist events!

[thwang99]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030728/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/terror_market /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Lazymeatball]

From what I understand, this would be a tool used to gain more accurate information about possible terrorist events. Other futures markets like this have been found to be very accurate in predicting events such as election results. This could be more accurate than your usual panel of experts because there is an actual profit incentive to be right, and the risk of loss if you're wrong. Basically, you're putting your money where your mouth is. If this can be used to more accurately predict terror attacks, than it is a good thing.

ps. Although the idea of someone saying "N. Korea just nuked Soeul. Woohoo, I made $50!!" does leave a bitter taste in my mouth.

[MS Sunshine]

This is thinking outside the box. A great idea that will be still-born because of politics. Crowds are much better at handicapping reality than the smartest person in the crowd.

MS Sunshine

[rusty JEDI]

From what I understand, this would be a tool used to gain more accurate information about possible terrorist events

Of course this is a great predictor. When you see a huge bet placed by Bin Laden or the Korean president you know its gonna happen according to the way they bet.

[RollaJ]

Hey, I can finally put my Series 3 license(commodity&futures) to good use /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[HavanaBanana]

[ QUOTE ]
If this can be used to more accurately predict terror attacks, than it is a good thing.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, predicting is one thing, but this marked can be making selffullfilling prophesies, if enough money is bet on an event, it is more likely to happen, since one or a group of bettors will make it happen.

I'd like to see what Americans would say if a market was opened on the assasination of some of their leaders, a market opened by another state!

Wow, Only in America!
(Don King)

[RollaJ]

Senators pussied out

[Terry]

[ QUOTE ]
Crowds are much better at handicapping reality than the smartest person in the crowd.

[/ QUOTE ]

Methinks you should rethink this. Pari-mutual betting, horse racing for instance, is a good example of the public being mostly wrong. Good handicappers can overcome a 20% to 25% house take and still make money by out thinking the public.

[Aragorn]

Another example of emotion over reason.

[Lazymeatball]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, predicting is one thing, but this marked can be making selffullfilling prophesies, if enough money is bet on an event, it is more likely to happen, since one or a group of bettors will make it happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think enough money will be invested in this market to make committing terrorist acts purely for profit feasible after you take into account the costs of committing terrorist acts (Plastic explosives, airline tickets, paying off the martyr's family, long distance phone bills, etc) plus the less tabgible cost of being hounded by US and UK intelligence into every corner of the globe.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see what Americans would say if a market was opened on the assasination of some of their leaders, a market opened by another state!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure anyone betting on W's assasination would be elligible to win a free vacation to Guantanamo Bay, or at the very least get a dinner invite by John Ashcroft.

[Aragorn]

I agree. I doubt they anticipated bets large enough to actually motivate someone to risk the death penalty.

[MS Sunshine]

Most winning horseplayers fall in two groups. Those that bet into large carry-over pools and those that play very tight. If the smartest player must play against the crowd every race then the theory is he is at a disadvantage.

I have nothing to back-up this position.

MS Sunshine

[GrannyMae]

I have nothing to back-up this position.



i would be disappointed in this place if you did.

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/_950/attention.gif

[thwang99]

Tony is the greatest poker player to walk the face of this planet. Tony is also the best looking man alive, and of all time.

I have nothing to back-up this position.

- Tony /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Terry]

Let me add another group: Those (highly knowledgeable handicappers) who seek out races in which the public is heavily over betting an emotional favorite.

Although sports betting isn’t really pari-mutuel we can see the same sort of thing when the line makers include a factor to adjust for the fact that “too much” money will be placed on a certain team, Dallas coming to mind, and frequently some southern California teams since so much Vegas action comes from that area. A lot of smart money takes advantage of those situations.

Convinced yet? I’ve got more. /images/graemlins/wink.gif Actually, I’m just feeling pesky and want to keep Granny entertained.

The likelihood that “the public” is wrong is the reason we have a representative government instead of a true democracy. The founding fathers didn’t think much of the mental capacity of the common man, and some even pressed for voter qualification on the theory that the common man wasn’t even able to reasonably vote for a “wiser” representative. They may have been onto something there; give the common people the vote and they just might elect a movie star for President.

[GrannyMae]

Senators pussied out

i've heard that this was discovered by "accident", and there are probably more sites still out there taking these bets. this site was the product of a think tank that is so secret that it does not even exist.

if lorinda were here, she would find the other sites.

http://burns.thefinaldimension.org/contrib/sarge/Kassie.gif