raise the flop with KK with an A on board?

[madscratch]

No real reads to speak of. Should I in general believe that villian has an A in this situation? I don't like the idea of just folding here when bet into. I also don't like just calling, so I raised the flop and bet the turn. This is the play I'm not sure about. I'm thinking it might have been smarter to check behind here, but I've got to make the call on the river if villian bets. Any comments are welcome.

Thanks.


Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(9 handed)</font>

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB.

[marchron]

It all depends on whether you think BB is capable of betting the turn with middle/bottom pair or unpaired Broadway gutshots.

The flop raise and turn bet is not terrible if you can get BB to fold a weak ace. I do it, but I'm a maniac. Absent reads, though, I think the turn bet is just spewage. He's calling down with his A/7.

[madscratch]

[ QUOTE ]
It all depends on whether you think BB is capable of betting the turn with middle/bottom pair or unpaired Broadway gutshots.

The flop raise and turn bet is not terrible if you can get BB to fold a weak ace. I do it, but I'm a maniac. Absent reads, though, I think the turn bet is just spewage. He's calling down with his A/7.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, not terrible, I agree, but I think you're right that I'm not getting villian to fold a weak ace.

Your read is dead on:


Final Pot: 8.25 BB.
Results below:

BB has Ah 7h (a pair of aces.)
Hero has Ks Kd (a pair of kings.)
BB wins 7.88 BB.

[bottomset]

just fold the flop, BB has an A about 95% of the time here

[ QUOTE ]
BB to fold a weak ace

[/ QUOTE ]

um this isn't a dreamworld this doesn't happen, at least 99% won't fold an A, you'd need a very good read, which you don't have here

[istewart]

I don't mind this line. Definitely cheaper than calling down (he'll go into calldown mode with anything less than a monster), so the question is how often you're actually ahead. I think you needly roughly 33% equity in this pot to take this line -- not perfectly correct since he sometimes donks the river or whatever -- and you should have more than that from what I've seen. Not much more though, so folding isn't too bad.

grunch

against three players you're almost always behind here, especially if one on them bets into the pre-flop raiser. lots of players at this limit will play A-x offsuit.

your only real outs are the kings and the backdoor straight draw i think.

if it's checked to me i'd probably bet, but there's no way i'm raising. i also don't like the bet on the turn, i think you're just spewing chips here.