Curtains: flop decision

[45suited]

Play along this hand. What's your flop action?

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com (http://www.pregopoker.com/hhconv/convert)

UTG (t1045)
UTG+1 (t955)
Hero (t2670)
CO (t905)
Button (t760)
SB (t550)
BB (t3115)

Preflop: Hero is in MP1 with T/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises t275</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, BB calls t175

Flop: (t600) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???

[Burno]

lemme guess, curtains shoves?

[LALDAAS]

Semi bluffs 1/2 pot

(I suck but learning)

[jb9]

Bets 400.

[microbet]

Check. A bet is likely enough to take it down, but getting check-raised would be bad against the only bigger stack here and the chances of hitting the nuts up against the big stack is inviting. Anyway, free card and you have a draw.

[rvg72]

Good hand - looking forward to this discussion. What are your reads on the BB? I think this makes a big difference here.

Given his call (and especially given his stack size) I'd probably check here and hope a club hits on the turn. Pushing seems way too risky against this stack size since his call could easily mean an overpair which he'd call. A small to mid sized bet would be check raised all-in by a lot of players.

If a club hits you should be able to take a large amount of chips from him because he's likely putting in a big bet on the turn.

Cut his stack in half and I'd play differently but in this case I check and take the free card.

rvg

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Bets 400.

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[microbet]

If Curtains pushed here, he's doctoring these hand histories and this is all a big mis-information campaign.

[downtown]

I would bet/3-bet. t400-600 sounds good, depending on how often I c-bet/don't c-bet, bet when there's a flush draw out, etc.

Edit: I like to get my money into the pot when I'm ahead, and it looks like we're way ahead here (assuming A &amp; T are clean outs.) Why you would not bet here is beyond me.

[GtrHtr]

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Check. A bet is likely enough to take it down, but getting check-raised would be bad against the only bigger stack here and the chances of hitting the nuts up against the big stack is inviting. Anyway, free card and you have a draw.

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[downtown]

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Check. A bet is likely enough to take it down, but getting check-raised would be bad against the only bigger stack here and the chances of hitting the nuts up against the big stack is inviting. Anyway, free card and you have a draw.

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Can someone explain to me why getting check/raised is bad when you have the best hand?

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

check and take a free card

Continuation bet 400, which I'd likely do if I don't have a hand this good. I'd be prepared to go to the felt for this one. If check raised on the flop, I'd move in. We have at least 9 outs, but more likely 12 or 15 outs.

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Check. A bet is likely enough to take it down, but getting check-raised would be bad against the only bigger stack here and the chances of hitting the nuts up against the big stack is inviting. Anyway, free card and you have a draw.

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Can someone explain to me why getting check/raised is bad when you have the best hand?

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Its part of the fear people have of putting their chips in "on a draw", even if that draw is ahead.

[microbet]

If you get check-raised aces and tens might not be outs.

The chip stacks make a big difference in my play here.

[45suited]

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The chip stacks make a big difference in my play here.

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[async]

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Check. A bet is likely enough to take it down, but getting check-raised would be bad against the only bigger stack here and the chances of hitting the nuts up against the big stack is inviting. Anyway, free card and you have a draw.

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Can someone explain to me why getting check/raised is bad when you have the best hand?

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Its part of the fear people have of putting their chips in "on a draw", even if that draw is ahead.

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His draw is not ahead unless opponent is on 99 or worse, though.

[ravensfan]

My understanding is this: we probably have 12 outs if c/r'ed. Ie. Either A8/AJ+, or a pp &gt; 99. If we're not c/r'ed we take the pot. But if so, we are probably -EV to $0 EVish when including c/r bluffs.

Thing is since it's the other large stack, sure we can go all-in for a draw, but if we miss we bust out, and if we don't play it, we'll still be in a very comfortable position.

Besides, I think we're losing EV by forcing him out of hand since villian has no reason to put us on either a flush draw or 10TK and may very well bet out on one/call a small bet.

Besides, if we miss next round, we're still getting good pot/implied odds to call a $400 bet.

[The Yugoslavian]

micro,

What is wrong with a push here? With 600 already in the middle I'd say it's +EV.

I'm not saying it's the best option....but those chips have significant value already even before any more get in there. I do rather like the idea of letting the villian stab at it and then raising allin, however. And if you get a free card, that also seems pretty good.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

thinking about this hand as "being ahead" is kind of silly. Getting allin on the flop is a disaster for us. You are usually at best close to a coinflip against any logical hand they may have and you are 2nd chipleader by a longshot.

Also checking is +EV too, because you can hit a huge hand and win a lot of chips, you may make a continuation bet on the turn to win the pot and etc etc. Sometimes you will end up losing a small pot and those are the breaks, but it avoids the unpleasantness of being checkraised allin. Im still a signifigant favorite to win the pot even after checking the flop, and sometimes may win a huge hand in a situation where my opponent has close to zero outs, if a club were to fall.

Another note...if they bet on the turn and I have missed, a tricky play is to call, with the intention of bluffing on the river if you miss again. If the opponent checks the river in this scenario they are almost surely folding to a large river bet. If they follow through and bet the river, then you just fold.

[jb9]

I like the $400 bet here for a few reasons. Maybe some of these are stupid, but since so many like the idea of checking, I thought I'd mention them...

Some big stacks get loose with defending their blinds, so I wouldn't be too concerned about his preflop call. I think it is likely that I have the best hand and would bet for value.

I bet to show I wasn't "stealing" preflop.

I bet to show I'm not afraid of playing a hand with the big stack.

I have a ton of outs if he calls.

A bet here might get me a free card on the turn (if I want it).

I can (and probably will) fold if he check/raises all in. I will still have the 2nd biggest stack by a large margin.

If I check behind, I'm inviting him to bluff me out of the pot on the turn (would anyone who checks the flop call a pot size bet on a turn that is a blank?).

If I check and a club or Ace hits the turn, I'm not likely to get paid off unless he has a flush or weaker Ace.

A read on villain would of course help.

[curtains]

those who mentioned a read on the villian: my default read on an opponent with a name in all caps followed by a number, whom also has a very large stack early in a tournament, is that they are probably a bad player.

[microbet]

I was gonna answer, but got waylaid and Curtains did a 10x better job than I could have.

I'm so happy having this big stack at this point there's no way I'm putting in all my chips, having to pray for a club. I'd much rather make semi-bluffs at this stage against one of the other stacks, and it's not like the free card has no value. You certainly have a better draw.

[async]

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micro,

What is wrong with a push here? With 600 already in the middle I'd say it's +EV.

I'm not saying it's the best option....but those chips have significant value already even before any more get in there. I do rather like the idea of letting the villian stab at it and then raising allin, however. And if you get a free card, that also seems pretty good.

Yugoslav

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Not that you were asking me /images/graemlins/smile.gif But I was trying to decide the best path for this. I figure if we push, we win 600 about 85% of the time. That's a value of T510. When we're called, we're either a 44% dog about 70% of the time (overpair, or even AK), or we're a 26% dog about 30% of the time (set). Our EV for that 15% of the time is -300, even counting the chips in the middle. So maybe pushing is worth T210, and when they call and we lose, we're out.

Compare that to a check. It's "risk free" for now, we have 18% chance to make the nuts, so a check is +T108, even we assume we must fold if we miss and they will never pay anything off. And we may make an Ace and win with that, too. And even if the turn is a blank, opp may check again.

I think a push is slightly +EV, but it's also hugely +variance and it is quite possibly not the most +EV when you consider a payoff from a good hand if we make our clubs.

[The Yugoslavian]

curtains,

I like your line....I agree getting called on the flop isn't a good thing but I don't think we are too often. Anyway, I definitely like a check/raise or just seein' that turn.

micro,
Yeah, my point is simply that going allin on the flop is +EV IMO....and has to be better than the way I see many party players playing, /images/graemlins/wink.gif. Fwiw I'd check the flop and take a line similar to curtains' although in teh $33s I'm not sure I can pull the trigger on a big river bet when I get called down with 2nd best (in this case 1st best) crap all the time.

Yugoslav

[ravensfan]

JB: I agree that you want to take down the pots and project the image. But imo, in this case I think the specifics, and position, make checking worthwhile.

I think though that a flush on turn will still get bet to you a fair amount of times since there's little reason for villian to put you on a flush draw and they may even make a probe bet to determine your strength. I mean, you've already shown weakness in this hand so they might take a stab at the pot if any Ace doesn't come (they might have you on high A considering pf action). If you call or reraise/ on turned flush (or 10) you should get some more chips a fair amount of time. Implied odds should be large here i think, which is why i'm comfortable checking.

Also, if you bet the pot and then fold to a reraise all-in, isn't it a large -EV situation? I think i'd have to reluctantly call, which is why I'd hate to allow the situation to occur.

I think all three options are likely +EV, but the largest EV is checking since it definitely doesn't involve a race for your flush.

[curtains]

Yugo Im last to act on the flop and my opponent has already checked.

[The Yugoslavian]

curtains,

You forgot to add that i'm retarded, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

My only excuse is that I'm sick and very sleep deprived. Okay, I will stop posting even though it takes my mind off of feeling not well. If I can't even read the HHs correctly I'm not doin' anyone any good, lol.

Yugoslav

[Chaostracize]

I bet 450 here.

[rvg72]

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I figure if we push, we win 600 about 85% of the time.

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For what it's worth, I think we have a much greater than 15% chance to be called here. I'd say there is at least a 30% chance he has 10's or higher or possibly a set and he would call here with that almost every time (say 80%). The other 70% he has a pretty good holding but would only call say 20% of the time.

30 x 80% + 70 x 20% = 38%

If those assumptions are correct then it is more like a 35 to 40% chance of getting called here. If this was a $22 or a $33 then it is a completely different story but in a higher limit game this smells like a trap.

rvg

[jb9]

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Also, if you bet the pot and then fold to a reraise all-in, isn't it a large -EV situation? I think i'd have to reluctantly call, which is why I'd hate to allow the situation to occur.

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I don't think it is a large -EV situation. If you assume the re-raise has a reasonable chance of meaning he has 2 pair or better, it's borderline, and I would reluctantly fold.

If I couldn't fold here, I would check behind.

But, in some ways checking behind just seems like avoiding a potentially tough decision and giving in to the big stack. We are afraid of the re-raise all in on the flop when it would create a difficult, borderline decision, so we check and get to the turn where the decision will probably be much simpler.

If the big stack is going to be a bully and force everyone to play any hand for their entire stack, this is valuable information to have, and now is as a good a time as any to find out.

I understand the reasoning for checking being a good (perhaps the best) play for this hand, but there is still a lot of poker to be played before this tournament is decided and I like the idea of finding out something about the big stack.

Will he call from his blind then check/fold a not too scary flop for a standard continuation bet?

Also, I hate the idea of raising preflop, checking behind on the flop, and folding to a bet on the turn. If that happens, I'm basically saying "I'm afraid of your stack and if you don't fold to my preflop bets I will only bet when I hit the flop so rest assured you always know what I'm holding".

[boogiemang]

i check behind and take a free card

[ravensfan]

[/ QUOTE ]
If the big stack is going to be a bully and force everyone to play any hand for their entire stack, this is valuable information to have, and now is as a good a time as any to find out.

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I'd rather find out with someone else's $400. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

I definitely love your point about playing poker and getting some information on big stack, but with a drawing hand this good, in position, i'd like to play it for free. With nothing, such as QQ on a AKK flop, i don't mind c-betting, b/c i'm either winning or losing already and there's hardly any draws, and i can still find out something about villain. Besides, maybe you want him to find something out about you: that you don't fold bets to him (if he reraises AI) and that you'll slowplay occassionally - like when you hit the nut flush and call him down. This might make it tougher for the table to bet into you in the future.
Well, I think it's clearly -EV to fold if he c-raises AI with an overpair: given the number of chips in the pot (with a $400 bet there'd be what $1500 already? so you're risking basically $2000 to take $5500), and the fact that you're EV is +$750ish.

Given two pair, you still have basically 9 outs, or 1/3 chance of winning, and you're getting pretty close to proper odds on this anyways, but you're only -170ish EV.

I don't think it's that easy to conclude that he'll always push only with 2 pair, I can see him easily pushing with overpair can't he? If his only hand-range for pushing is AA, 2 pair, or set, then i agree you have to lay this down. In which case, it makes sense to bet b/c he'll almost never have that and you'll take the pot a high % of times.

I guess we just disagree on villain's pushing range.

[ilya]

With these stacks I would check behind. I have a ton of equity but despite the hugeness of my draw I don't want to commit myself on the flop. I also really don't want to fold to a check-raise.

[bennies]

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With these stacks I would check behind. I have a ton of equity but despite the hugeness of my draw I don't want to commit myself on the flop. I also really don't want to fold to a check-raise.

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[jb9]

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you're risking basically $2000 to take $5500

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Well, unless work has completely destroyed my brain (a distinct possibility) I think calling the all in would be $2000 to win $3000, so it is fairly close, especially since a certain % of the time the A and T outs are no good.

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I guess we just disagree on villain's pushing range.

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To be honest, I'm not too concerned about what he's pushing here, because I'm not calling any of it.

But I see your point about letting someone else burn chips getting info on the big stack and checking to the turn. Playing cautiously against the big stack is not a bad idea and will keep us nicely positioned to money in the tournament whether we hit our draw or not.

[45suited]

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com (http://www.pregopoker.com/hhconv/convert)

UTG (t1045)
UTG+1 (t955)
Hero (t2670)
CO (t905)
Button (t760)
SB (t550)
BB (t3115)

Preflop: Hero is in MP1 with T/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises t275</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, BB calls t175

Flop: (t600) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, HERO CHECKS

Turn: (t600) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
<font color="red">BB bets t325</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises t800</font>, BB calls t475

River: (t2200) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t700</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

[bennies]

Interesting. Usually I like a standard slowplay when I hit the nuts - calling the turn and raising the river. But on this board I think I understand the point in raising the turn. This way Hero charges Villain for a draw and gives him a better chance to commit all his chips with a made straight/set.

When I read this question my immediate thought was "bet 400." The more posts I read from the better players here, the more I think I need to slow the f*ck down. I definitely play too fast too often and fail to protect my chip stack in dangerous situations.


Great post. I learned a lot.

[ravensfan]

Just a guess, but at this level a smooth call is scarier than an actual reraise... if villain had flush, maybe he'd suspect that the re-raise was to try to take pot?
I really don't have that slightest idea about the 215s, but that's my hunch... That and my impression is that the hero is very agro, so his raise might not mean the same as a regular raise??!

Oh well, was a great post. Thanks 45s, great to see how it all played out.

[ravensfan]

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Well, unless work has completely destroyed my brain (a distinct possibility) I think calling the all in would be $2000 to win $3000, so it is fairly close, especially since a certain % of the time the A and T outs are no good.

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Sorry, i wasn't very clear about the $5500, and my addition was bad. Initially there was $600 in the pot, plus your $400 bet and his $400 call, before his push. So that gives brings the pot to $1400. You have an extra 2K left, so you'd call his 2K and use your own, giving you $5400.

But i do agree, that in a lot of situations it's good policy to take down the pot right away when you're probably the favorite.... also good to set the tone that you'll bet if it's checked to you...

Interesting raise on the turn. My standard play would probably be just a smooth call there, but then again I play the $11's. At this level, a smooth call might scream "I have the nuts," as others were saying, so a raise looks good. The BB can't be too good of a player... what is he calling the raise with on the turn? A straight or Jack-high flush? In his spot, I fold in a second to that raise...

[EasilyFound]

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what is he calling the raise with on the turn?

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He is getting correct odds to call if he has a set. If he has a set, he is a 3.5 to 1 underdog, and calling the turn re-raise gives him 3.6 to 1 odds. Perhaps that is the answer.

[curtains]

lol, there is zero chance he had a set. You give too much credit.

[EasilyFound]

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lol, there is zero chance he had a set. You give too much credit.

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Is that b/c a mid PP would re-raise preflop? What do you think is villan's holding? In other words, what kinds of hands will someone call with in the BB to such a raise at your level of play? What do you think was his purpose in calling the turn? Hoping to check it down after the river?

[yvesaint]

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Is that b/c a mid PP would re-raise preflop? What do you think is villan's holding? In other words, what kinds of hands will someone call with in the BB to such a raise at your level of play? What do you think was his purpose in calling the turn? Hoping to check it down after the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

a set bets a good % of the chance on the flop, at least, i would

[EasilyFound]

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a set bets a good % of the chance on the flop, at least, i would

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you don't agree w/another poster here who said this smells like a trap? would checking the flop be one way to try to trap? i'd probably bet out as well to protect my hand against a flush draw . . . but perhaps others would not be so fearful of the flush draw

[durron597]

I would raise the turn because I want to get my whole stack in the times I have the nuts. I can't do that by calling the turn.