I believe I'm an idiot -- confirmation please

[Daithi]

B&M Satelite with top 2 going to a bigger satelite.

3 players left. The chip leader caught some good cards early on and played his chip lead like a big bully, but with about 70% of the tourney chips he went into defensive mode. The guy in 3rd place was playing really well.

At this point in the tourney 1st has T6000, I have T2200, and 3rd is at T1800. I bet 2xBB and the chip leader moves all-in. I fold and he shows AK. About 15 minutes later I'm in 2nd place with T2800, 3rd has T2200, and our chip leader is down to T5000 and still playing pretty conservative.

The blinds have just gone to 800, and I have the BB with K /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif, but the chip leader in the SB moves all-in.

I stongly believed he held an Ace which makes me a dog. However, there was T1200 in the pot already and it was going cost me T2000 to win T5200. I figured if he had the ace I was a 40% dog, but I figured there was also a chance he was waking back up and making a move. I also felt that if I gave him my T800 blind he was certainly going to start coming at me.

I called. He had A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, nobody paired, and I'm out in third.

Do I deserve to be hit with the stupid stick?

[Guy McSucker]

I don't think you've made much of a mistake. The blinds are so huge and the stacks so close in size that you can't wait for the third player to get eliminated and you can't wait for a hand. You need to play a hand and be lucky enough to win it. If you're going to fold this, the chip leader can just push you around until you're blinded out. Also, if you fold you drop into third place, and next hand when the chip leader raises from the button you'll have to decide if the other player is going to take the plunge or not.

Unless he has a monster hand (AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ) you're not in too bad shape. There's no need for him to have that kind of hand. You can't pass this up in my opinion.

Guy.

[slamdunkpro]

I read this over and over before agreeing with Guy, sometimes you've just got to make a move and KQ(s) is better than the 72(o) you'd get on the next hand (oh wait , that's what I got!)

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If you were very sure this guy was raising with just any two cards, then you can call, as this is your best chance to outlast the other guy and get 2nd.

However, since 1st and 2nd pay the same, and since you have more chips than the third guy, this is a clear fold when you feel there is a good chance the chip leader has a real hand. If this were a proportional payout, like 70%-30%-0%, then calling may be right, because of the dead money being so much of your stack. Here, where 1 and 2 pay the same, you must fold and let the other guy go to war first if he will. If he won't fight back, then you'll get second by default since he'll blind out before you. You only get in a bad spot when he fights back and wins the next hand.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[slamdunkpro]

Actually based on how I read the post on chip counts and positions our hero and the 3rd guy would blind out togther when they both have the blinds.

Granted heads up with 2 random cards both have an equal chance of pairing, I'd rather go to war with paint than rags.

[Guy McSucker]

Duh, I'm an idiot. Can somebody check if I'm getting this right now.

If the chip leader takes every pot uncontested until the other two are forced all-in, our hero will have more chips in the pot than the third player so will win 2nd place if both are busted.

Therefore he wins if the chip leader wins that pot, or if he himself wins that pot. This will happen 2/3 times. On the other hand, in an average two way pot, he'll survive only 1/2 the time and not be guaranteed second even if he does.

The thing to weigh up against this is the chance that the third player will lose his nerve and play a pot all-in versus the chip leader, and the chance that he wins it, and how the chips end up after that. It's probably quite a complex process to solve accurately, but folding, folding, folding does seem right, as Greg said.

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Edit: no, the above is totally incorrect as well. I really am stoopid today.

If everybody keeps folding to the chip leader, 3rd place will end up all-in first, with his last 200. Good grief: I have a degree in mathematics and it took me three tries to get the arithmetic right here.

Sorry for wasting everybody's time.

Guy.

[maplepig]

u should fold. by folding, your chance of finishing 2nd is greater than 50%. By calling, it's likely around 30%

[Daithi]

Well, atleast I don't feel like too much of an idiot as there was some disagreement here (even Guy initially thought it was a good call).

At the time I too thought I was making a good call, even though I didn't like making it. On my loser's drive home I came to the conclusion that the call was only good if 1st paid more than 2nd.

[Ignatius]

Tough spot. If the chip-leader is still in his conservative mode and will have a pair or an ace most of the time, then you will be less than 50% to survive the confrontation and even when you win, with 60% of the chips you still have no lock to get a seat. So by calling, your overall chances to make a seat are about 40%.
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OTOH, the strategic disadvantage of sitting on the chip leader's right and having the other short stack on your left and the fact that he will have you covered by T200 if you muck and you both will be in the blinds on the next hand also hurt your chances more than your chip position would suggest. Still you should be about even money for a seat. By guess would be along 50:60:90 for the 3 of you.
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So you should be better off by folding unless the chip leader would raise here most of the times and you would be a considerable favorite with your KQs over his range of hands - just being on a coin-flip is not good enough here.