KJo - what do you think of this line?

[Nick Royale]

CO 14/10/2.8 ~800 hands
MP3 43/8/0.9 ~200 hands
CO seems like an ok TAG and I think he knows I am too. MP3 is crappy and pretty aggressive, but not always in the right spots.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, BB folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets...</font>

[SlyGuy]

Well, if you don't think the CO will raise you with a worse hand on the river ( i assume you fold the river to a raise). CO looks a lot like a flopped set. Would he 3-bet KT on the flop? I would prefer just getting to showdown here.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you don't think the CO will raise you with a worse hand on the river ( i assume you fold the river to a raise). CO looks a lot like a flopped set. Would he 3-bet KT on the flop? I would prefer just getting to showdown here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm paying off a raise from MP3 unless CO coldcalls, but I really don't think MP3 will raise very often here.

[SlyGuy]

What are you putting CO on?

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
What are you putting CO on?

[/ QUOTE ]
Given preflop, no king better than KJo. There's no 2 pair possibilities or draw so other than a pair of kings he could just have 55/22.

Hands we're ahead of:
KT: 8 combos
K9s: 2 combos
Kxs: 2 combos
Total: 12 combos

Hands we're behind of:
55/22: 6 combos
Total 6 combos

Given his willingness to 3-bet the flop I would discount the 12 K-combos to ~6 (maybe even a little less). Plus we have 6 combos of KJo we would like to see a sd against (discounted and the split taken into consideration not worth more than 2 combos in relation to 55/33).

Off the top of my head, I think that top pair-jack kicker OOP is not what I want to play when it comes back to me 3-bet, and I fold on the flop. I'm sure I would have done this in the heat of the moment.

Thinking about it, I wonder what CO 3-bets on the flop that he overlimps preflop. 55 or 22? I doubt it. K5 or K2? Please. KJo or KTo makes some sense, although even with these I would expect 14/10 to raise to isolate the loose limper. An oddly played AA is the only other thing I can think of.

Having thought about it, I still think this is afold, but I'm likely not ready to play 5/10 yet.

[Carmine]

Nick, do you agree that you must call a CO raise once MP calls. What's nice about this play is you trap MP for two(most likely once he calls your lead)and you don't miss bets from a KT check-through. What's risky is with CO being a TAG he will value-raise KT/KJ as well as 55/22 so I don't think you are in a bet/fold situation. CO has pretty aggressive stats so I think he would have raised KQ PF. Now what do you do if MP folds and CO still raises. That might be a fold situation IMO.

[SlyGuy]

I would lean toward C/C on the river.

[Jake (The Snake)]

You make it sound like getting raised by CO would be a good thing. That would suck.

Also, you say we bet so KT dosn't check through, but then you say KT is value raising if we bet.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Off the top of my head, I think that top pair-jack kicker OOP is not what I want to play when it comes back to me 3-bet, and I fold on the flop. I'm sure I would have done this in the heat of the moment.

[/ QUOTE ]
My initial thought was to fold, but then I thought about it and decided to call.

[ QUOTE ]
KJo or KTo makes some sense, although even with these I would expect 14/10 to raise to isolate the loose limper.

[/ QUOTE ]
He had 2 limpers in front preflop.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
You make it sound like getting raised by CO would be a good thing. That would suck.

Also, you say we bet so KT dosn't check through, but then you say KT is value raising if we bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this.

Also, if CO raises the river I'm never calling.

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
Off the top of my head, I think that top pair-jack kicker OOP is not what I want to play when it comes back to me 3-bet, and I fold on the flop. I'm sure I would have done this in the heat of the moment.


My initial thought was to fold, but then I thought about it and decided to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two things about the flop:

1. MP3 is pretty passive. How often do you think he has a king here? If it's pretty often, it also makes it even less likely that CO has a king and more likely he has a set.

2. Reverse implied odds will kinda suck on this hand because when CO has a set you are stuck calling multiple bets, and even more bets when you hit a king or jack.

[Nick Royale]

I'm going to bed now so I'm posting my last thoughts on this hand.

Given the range of hands I put him on 55/22 and KJ/KT/K9s and a couple of discounted Kxs I think folding this flop would be incorrect.

At the river my thought was that CO will probably checking through the river with K9s and also very possible KTo and maybe even KJo. He probably knows I'm a decent player and seeing me calling the flop 3-bet might have scared him. The only hands I'm sure he'll bet is 55/22, so I think I need to bet my own winners to get paid off here. If he raises the river a fold seems safe since he'll have a really hard time finding a raise KJo or worse after this aggression.

I'll be checking this thread tomorrow so I'll be glad to get some more input.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
1. MP3 is pretty passive. How often do you think he has a king here? If it's pretty often, it also makes it even less likely that CO has a king and more likely he has a set.

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I wouldn't consider 0.9 especially passive having a vpip of 43. And his 8% pfr makes it hard for him to hold a better K. MP3 is a problem though, in more than 1 way. If he caps the flop I will fold the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
2. Reverse implied odds will kinda suck on this hand because when CO has a set you are stuck calling multiple bets, and even more bets when you hit a king or jack.

[/ QUOTE ]
I actually don't think the reversed implied odds suck here as CO will pay me the same ammount when I'm ahead. CO will bet the turn with a K but often take a free sd if I call to the river. The bet at the river is to prevent the reversed implied odds by getting paid when ahead. Also the pot is pretty big making the rio a smaller factor.

We have a problem though. When behind we're way behind drawing as good as dead. When we're ahead CO has 3 outs which is not very much, but here's where MP3 becomes a concern again. He's likely to have 3-5 additional outs against me making it 6-8 outs. And since there's no way I'm getting MP3 to fold that will cut pretty big into my equity. Still, of about 13 combos I'm ahead of 5, splitting to 2 and loses to 6. I think that's enough for a call-down.

About hitting a K or J, I know that won't improve my hand against CO, but if I hit a K or J I will instead check/call the river since I otherwise would have to call a raise (he might raise KT when he rivers trips) and I'm now also certain he'll bet the river value betting his trips. At the same time I'm all of a sudden ahead of less combos since there's now less combos of KT/K9s/Kxs possible.

[Jake (The Snake)]

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I wouldn't consider 0.9 especially passive having a vpip of 43.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did anyone ever do anything about figuring out how much vpip matters? IDK I still think .9 is on the passive side, though defenetely not like a calling station.

I'm not really worried about MP3 having a better king, I was just saying it makes it a tiny bit more likely that CO has a set.


[ QUOTE ]
I actually don't think the reversed implied odds suck here as CO will pay me the same ammount when I'm ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I think of reverse implied odds as its own thing. Obviously with the line you took the implied vs. reverse implied odds are pretty equal, but in general as a good player I think we want to have implied odds on the big streets. But yeah, I guess it doesn't suck too much.

[ QUOTE ]
He's likely to have 3-5 additional outs against me making it 6-8 outs.

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So by the river we are getting outdrawn like what, 20% - 25% of the time?

Yeah still looks like a call down.

[Carmine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You make it sound like getting raised by CO would be a good thing. That would suck.

Also, you say we bet so KT dosn't check through, but then you say KT is value raising if we bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this.

Also, if CO raises the river I'm never calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I'm not saying it would be a good thing. Just that if MP folds and CO raises it is an easier fold. If MP calls CO might raise a more marginal hand with a bad player caught between. Re-reading it this morning(after some much needed sleep)I realize how hard it would be for CO to raise KT/KJ even KQ would find it hard to raise against another player who isn't a donkaholic. Just make sure CO doesn't view you as such before you bet/fold.