Arbs

[FourNickel]

Can someone explain how to find an arb and calculate ev

[NajdorfDefense]

You sell a Eagles to win SB at 1-1 odds.
You buy an Eagles to win SB at 3-1 odds.
You put $100 of action on each.
Max loss = zero, Max win = $200. EV % chance PHL wins times $200. So if 10% your EV is $20.

simple.

Naj

[NoSoup4U]

In Najdorf's example, most of us would put $200 on the 1-1 bet and $100 on the 3-1 bet. You win $100 either way then and you no longer care who wins.

In the real world, a more typical example would be this bet I placed last weekend:

$3,000 on the Cardinals -2.5 +114 to win $3,420
$3,363 on the Eagles +2.5 -110 to win $3,057

If the Cardinals won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Eagles. If the Eagles won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Cardinals. Either way, I win and am one step closer to clearing my bonus and getting paid almost 1% on my money for the trouble. If you can find 1% per week, you earn 52% on the year. If you earn 1% per day, you earn 365% on the year.

[NajdorfDefense]

Yeah, sorry bout that, my example was a little rushed as I tried to make it more simple. Clearly you would want to book the $100 pure profit regardless.

Damn cutting back on caffeine is killin me.

Naj

[NoSoup4U]

No worries. There are few topics that I am smart enough to contribute on here, but how to arb money risk-free and clear bonuses appeals to my limit ring game grinder's mind. When I first got talked into trying it, I really thought it seemed too good to be true or that it would take hours and hours to find a good play. It turns out to be a lot easier than I thought it would be.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
In Najdorf's example, most of us would put $200 on the 1-1 bet and $100 on the 3-1 bet. You win $100 either way then and you no longer care who wins.

In the real world, a more typical example would be this bet I placed last weekend:

$3,000 on the Cardinals -2.5 +114 to win $3,420
$3,363 on the Eagles +2.5 -110 to win $3,057

If the Cardinals won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Eagles. If the Eagles won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Cardinals. Either way, I win and am one step closer to clearing my bonus and getting paid almost 1% on my money for the trouble. If you can find 1% per week, you earn 52% on the year. If you earn 1% per day, you earn 365% on the year.

[/ QUOTE ]

1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.

[NoSoup4U]

[ QUOTE ]
1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pesky compound interest. Thanks!

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pesky compound interest. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you understand that this wasn't a typo. It might look like 365%, but it actually more than 10x that much.

How many books to you guys have accounts with in order to effectively scalp? I'm very intrigued by this, and having just gotten my bonus, I have some money to throw into a few more accounts at various books to make it happen.

[NoSoup4U]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pesky compound interest. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you understand that this wasn't a typo. It might look like 365%, but it actually more than 10x that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh no. I understood my mistake immediately. I'm new at this and am stunned at the money that is available with relatively low risk.

Of course, I could never leverage my whole bankroll into 1% arbs every day because of the need to move money around, but it made me realize that my return is going be much larger than I first thought.

So far I'm primarily focused on clearing bonuses, but I think this could be worthwhile when I'm done just on arbs alone. It seems to me that either Pinny or Matchbook have at least one arb almost every time I check.

[NoSoup4U]

[ QUOTE ]
How many books to you guys have accounts with in order to effectively scalp?

[/ QUOTE ]

I find that Pinnacle (and to a lesser extent Matchbook) are the driving force behind most arbs I find. Most any slow moving or reduced vig book often works for the other side. I haven't been at it long, so the best books may change with the season.

It seems to work best with sports where a move in the basic line is a big deal, so they have to manipulate the odds to balance the action. So hockey and NFL often has arbs, where NBA over/unders seem to rarely have them. For this reason, I suspect baseball is a really good game for scalpers.

I don't understand the entire business model of the various sportsbooks, but Pinnacle clearly goes out of their way to create arbs. They will post a +114 sometimes when they could easily move the line. I assume that they understand what we are doing and are willing to bet against the other books in certain situations.