Simple push bot question

[HiatusOver]

UTG 8-handed...my stack is 4840, the tourney average is 7000. Blinds 300-600. I expect calling ranges of my opponents to be significantly tight because the table is playing tight and it will be a decent chunk of anyones stack.

My hand is 44. Is this a push? If not what pair starts to be a push? If so, how much lower do u go?

[gumpzilla]

My first guess is that it's probably an iffy push, just because UTG 8-handed isn't such a great spot. How tight do you consider them here? Let's say you'll get called with a range of 99+, AQ-AK, which I think is a reasonable range in this steal-heavy part of a tournament. That's 68/1225 for about 5% of hands. So as a rough estimate, you're going to get called about 35% of the time, and your equity when you get called is about 35%. 65% of the time you profit 1.5 BBs, 35% of the time you are losing about 2 BBs, so it looks like it might be slightly +chip EV. I think I'd rather wait until later position, usually. And apologies if the math is off, I'm trying to do it roughly in my head.

puuuuuuush
the problem with waiting for a better spot is that once you're on the button you'll have gone through the blinds, so if you steal the blinds there you're just back to where you started now. Take all the EV you can get and push!

[Exitonly]

i think i'm pushing any pair, AT and up. That'll give you like 35% equity atleast, get called 35%, blinds will call more often, so i'll round to 40% so

60% you win 2 BB's for +1.2
40% you win 35% of 10BB pot. +3.5
you lose 65% of 8BB's -5.2
= not what i expected. Whoops, i thoguht this would be profitable. It appears i have to tighten up my pushing.

*note, unless i'm too un-sober to do correct math.

edit:

LEFT OUT A STEP.

40% * -1.7bb's + 60% * 1.2bb's
-0.68 + 0.72 = +0.04


Still think i [censored] something up. But atleast it confirmed to me that it's +cEV like i thoguoht.

i stand by AT+, any pair, KJ+, QJs.JTs.

[bugstud]

define tight, if you got a decent chance of a walk or a sb push next orbit and then some relentless stealing, I might muck here. I tend to push before thinking, tho.

[betgo]

Assuming no ante, if you push and get called by a higher pair, you win 20% of 13.5 BBs or 2.7 BBs for a loss of 3.3 BBs. You gain 1.5 BBs if you pick up the pot and about the same if you are called by over cards. If you work out the rest of the math, this is easily EV+.

I would generally push any pp, KQ, AT+, A8s+, most or all suited broadway cards, and probably a lot of suited connectors and gappers.

In close situations, I would go by strategic considerations and how the table is playing.

[HiatusOver]

I mean, not sickly tight...but the calling ranges mentioned here are about right...maybe add 88 and AJs? If this is chip EV I think I need to do it though at this point

[MrTimCaum]

I'd probably need 66 or 77+ and AQo+ to make this push. Earlier this year I used to push weaker hands short UTG at full tables and two things would happen:

1) I'd bust
2) Adanthar would yell at me on AIM, telling me how bad my push was.


I think the important thing to note is that you simply will not get called by a hand that you're well ahead of (unless a huge donk gets involved). 22, 33, A2, A3, and A4 would be the only hands you'd love to see a call from, and how often is that going to happen?

Except in the rare case about, you'll just going to be happy to get call from a coinflip hand. You might get 55-88 to fold, but the rest will call and you'll be cooked.

[nath]

Are there antes?

I'm pushing any pair in this spot, personally. Yeah it can suck when you get called but it really doesn't happen that often and you gotta take some chances when you're short stacked.
(If you were looking for a "philosophy" argument rather than a "math" one.)

[HiatusOver]

Bump, do we have an answer to this yet?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Bump, do we have an answer to this yet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I gave you my answer. I guess everyone doesn't agree.

I posted a similar hand where I pushed UTG 10-handed no ante with ATo, a loose table, and 6xBB and everyone said it was a good push.

[Lloyd]

I think it's a close decision. My default would be to fold here. I'd prefer to push junk in MP or LP than a hand like 44 UTG. It really comes down to how tight people are. If it's going to take a big hand to get called (like AA-JJ, AK) then pushing is profitable. Something like AA-99, AK-AQ then it's very marginal. Add a few more hands and it's -EV. As for what pairs you'd push, well if we go with the middle range 44 is pretty much the same as 88. They both have roughly the same equity against AA-99, AK-AQ. 99 is slightly better. TT becomes profitable.

In sum, I'd fold. I think you've got enough chips to be a little more patient but I'd definitely be looking at stealing with position or pushing a decent hand next round.

[betgo]

I have given the math for this several times before. Basically, it is chip EV+ to push 44 UTG 8-handed with 8xBB. If someone calls with over cards, it is about teh same EVwise as picking up the blinds.

This is fairly close, so you can fold based on strategic reasons, taste, fear, or whatever.

[Copernicus]

Given that its close EV wise I think you fold it. The more you push the more likely you are to be called later on, and Id rather save my pushes for when they are more +EV on their merits, and have retained a little FE because I havent shown a push before. As someone else said..push in later position with rags then 44 with so many players behind.

[UncleSalty]

[ QUOTE ]
i think i'm pushing any pair, AT and up. That'll give you like 35% equity atleast, get called 35%, blinds will call more often, so i'll round to 40% so

60% you win 2 BB's for +1.2
40% you win 35% of 10BB pot. +3.5
you lose 65% of 8BB's -5.2
= not what i expected. Whoops, i thoguht this would be profitable. It appears i have to tighten up my pushing.

*note, unless i'm too un-sober to do correct math.

edit:

LEFT OUT A STEP.

40% * -1.7bb's + 60% * 1.2bb's
-0.68 + 0.72 = +0.04


Still think i [censored] something up. But atleast it confirmed to me that it's +cEV like i thoguoht.

i stand by AT+, any pair, KJ+, QJs.JTs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the lose 65% piece of your math needs to be multiplied by the 40% chance they call.

Edit: NM, looks like you fixed it in the "left out a step"