Please evaluate

3rd hand into sng.. all players unknown

Hero has button with J /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif

all players near even in chips (around 1k) blinds are 10/20

utg - fold
call
fold
call
fold
call
fold
HERO -calls
SB - limps
BB (villian) -raises to 120

Everyone calls
so my pot odds are very nice

flop
10 /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB checks
Villian bets 400
folds to me.....(i have around 850 now.. easy push ? or lay it down.... flush draw, mid pair, open ended straight draw......

please advise

Fold preflop
!!!

[MikeSmith]

FOLD PREFLOP!!!!!!!!!!!!

fold when getting over 5-1 in pot odds?

well what about the post flop? what there?

[yvesaint]

fvck pot odds you have JQo and look, now you put in 120 chips pre-flop with JQo

and post flop this looks pretty but in retrospect your hand sucks. might as well just hold the Js here, as his range is AA-TT, AK-AJ probably with the As

[microbet]

Your analysis is pretty good and it's right to be harsh about the preflop play AND nice job with 'fvck' (Is it considered bad to try and get around the censor? It shouldn't be. We're, well er most, well many of us are adults.), but looking at the crazy action preflop this is a table full of thrill seekers and the villian's range is much wider.

this is a 5$ buyin sng.. players starting hands are crap and the quality of players sucks..therefore i didnt see JQ as a 5-1 underdog.. i figured the villian had AK or AQ.. but regaurdless im not asking for prelfop analysis.whats best on the flop ?

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
this is a 5$ buyin sng.. players starting hands are crap and the quality of players sucks

[/ QUOTE ]

oh. i see.

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
villian's range is much wider.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, tell me what is range with that raises from the BB w/5 limpers ahead of him AND committing himself right away into a field of 6

yea

[microbet]

I didn't address that because it's too hard.

There's so much money in the pot. I guess I would think it's very unlikely that he leads out like that with an ace high flush, so you have a lot of outs if he's ahead and if he's going with just the As, you are ahead. There are also some crazy chances like you are way ahead of a ten or a PP under ten, or even a total bluff at a scary flop.

As for whether you should call or push, he's very unlikely to fold to your raise, but it is a small possibility. If he has a made hand and no spade he will put you all in eventually if no more spades come, but he might fold if another spade hits and you bet, so push, I guess.

[microbet]

It's a $5. Have you played $5s? 22 could do this. 67s could. 67o could. Really.

I know he didn't originally say it was a $5, but how do so many people limp and then call a big raise?

it is full of retards...i am gonna move outa this site for onething and go to somewhere else.. I am playing on royal vegas but with so many retards its hard to play well...lol -- i am going to go to full tilt and start with 10$ sng.......

well the results are

I pushed ( knowing a call was coming )
Villian had KK.. giving him trips
turn 4s....made my flush
river 10-----he made a boat.. :{

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
it is full of retards...i am gonna move outa this site for onething and go to somewhere else.. I am playing on royal vegas but with so many retards its hard to play well...lol -- i am going to go to full tilt and start with 10$ sng.......

[/ QUOTE ]

hello, pot calling, its looking for a mr. kettle

what are you trying to say?

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a $5. Have you played $5s? 22 could do this. 67s could. 67o could. Really.

I know he didn't originally say it was a $5, but how do so many people limp and then call a big raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

he didnt say it was a $5, but ive seen all sorts of crazy stuff happen at the 55s that this could easily be one

and yes, he could do this w/22. 67s. 67o. how much do i want to pay to guess that he's doing this for [censored] and giggles? seriously, im going to assign a reasonable range for him to be raising out of the blinds pf and basically betting all-in on the flop - and that doesnt include 22 and 67o. just because youve seen one drunk guy mess around in the 5s doesnt mean im going to be calling this hoping this is the one time it is him.

[async]

[ QUOTE ]
fold when getting over 5-1 in pot odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not getting 5:1 pot odds, you're getting about 2.8:1 (based on your description, pot is around T720 on flop, he bets T400, so you must call T400 against T1120, which is 2.8:1).

Let's assume for a moment that regardless of what comes, whether you call or push, the rest of the chips are going in. So really, assume you're being asked to call 850 against a pot of 1570. That's offering you 1.85:1 to call. This means for this to be a call, you must be 35% or better to win against villain's range.

Here are your chances against possible villain holdings (your win rate is shown). I'm going to list the likelihood of his holding, in my estimation. (note that in a lot of cases, like AA, it matters what suit his cards are, so in this case, the As hand represents "any AA with As" and the non-As hand represents the other combinations. Obviously, it's about 50/50 if he had AA for him to have As, since I don't necessarily think AsAd bets it any differently than AcAh on the flop)

KhKd: 43% [16%]
AsAh: 24% [16%]
AcAd: 54% [16%]
AsJc: 7% [15%]
QdQh: 43% [ 2%]
TcTd: 45% [ 5%]
AsKc: 28% [ 8%]
AdKc: 56% [22%]

So your total odds are:

(.43*.16)+(.24*.16)+(.54*.16)+(.07*.15)+(.43*.02)+ (.45*.05)+(.28*.08)+(.56*.22)

Or 38% to win against the hands the way I've identified them, which if you assume all the chips ARE going into the middle, means this is +EV if you were heads up.

However, these calculations only really tell you how you do against the pf raiser. The problem is, you have a *lot* of other people in the pot. What kind of hands like to limp and call raises? Certainly, aces you'll see plenty of. Therefore it is, I'd say, quite probably that the As is out. Heck, on a pure "number of cards basis", there are 10 cards in hands that are not yours out of 47. That means even in a purely random distribution, 21% of the time the As is out. Assuming that people tend to fold hands with aces a lot less often, I'd say the real odds are at least 33% of not more. Let's say he's holding KK, but someone out there has As2d. Your odds against KhKd, for example, fall from 43% to win, to 19%. Against AcAd, which you were over 50% to win against, your chances fall to 23%. I think we can discount at least 15-20% of your win rate because of this effect, meaning your "real" odds of winning are something closer to 31%.

I think your fold equity stinks here, because with all those limpers and callers, you're obviously in a loose game.

So, all in all... I'd say no, it's a fold postflop also.

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
what are you trying to say?

[/ QUOTE ]

i believe you said this earlier

[ QUOTE ]

this is a 5$ buyin sng.. players starting hands are crap

[/ QUOTE ]

which i find great because you are so adamant about not discussing your pre-flop play, which is key to avoiding these very marginally -EV to very -EV situations post-flop

when i said i was getting 5-1 i meant calling the raise preflop...now the question was would you push/call/fold postflop w/ the number off outs i had...by looking at pot odds i didnt see how i could..but then again maybe some of you knew he was gonna boat on the river..

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
but then again maybe some of you knew he was gonna boat on the river..

[/ QUOTE ]

ha ha ha, why yes, ignore the confusing numbers and paragraphs above that give a nice detailed analysis

Preflop - Limping first time is shady at best, fold after the raise. I'll go further here - with that action to you - FOLD JQs.

Postflop - Calling is out of question. Reraise all-in or fold.
You've managed to get yourself in a situation where you have a hand that's not CURRENTLY best, but you have outs and the pot size is significant. It's a tough decision and requires some good reads on the villain to do a right move.

Pushing is a very minor +EV move here with no reads on the villain. Folding you're out t120 and hopefully learn not to call PF raises with cr@p hands.

thx morn..i know the preflop play was questionable..it as just onw of those things where a ROYAL flush woulda looked pretty :}

[async]

[ QUOTE ]

Pushing is a very minor +EV move here with no reads on the villain. Folding you're out t120 and hopefully learn not to call PF raises with cr@p hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think a push is +EV. If he were heads up, that might be the case, but I think the As is out in the field often enough and the table loose enough that at least 30% of the time he's all-in 3 handed with no flush outs.

[runner4life7]

preflop call is not bad at all so all you people who are just like fold preflop, just because you cant play poker postflop doesnt mean others cant.

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
preflop call is not bad at all so all you people who are just like fold preflop, just because you cant play poker postflop doesnt mean others cant.

[/ QUOTE ]

whats up, people that are playing JQo for 10% of their stack pf in level 1 make me money at the 55s. tell me when you move up.

[ QUOTE ]
preflop call is not bad at all so all you people who are just like fold preflop, just because you cant play poker postflop doesnt mean others cant.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to tighten up a lot. I like to play postflop, but not with garbage.

[Snarf]

Hey man...So I'd like to preface this with the fact that I suck.

That said I'm actually gonna take a stab at offering some helpful advice. (From one broke poker player playing the $5s (I'm even playing a lot of $3s lately) to another.)

First:

As for your post-flop question:
I think if you're going to decide to PLAY QJo in that spot - you can't fold when you pick up an Outside striaght flush draw plus a pair. Thats WAY too weak-tight for me. So if you're deciding to commit as much of your stack as you did pre-flop - this flop is a no-brainer push IMO. At least one guy will call you. Hopefully that top pair or bottom two or some crap...but likely you're looking at a set here given the action described. (Those damn BB raisers more often have those mid-big pairs than AJo it seems...)

Pre-flop:
I understand you're thinking...and I have played the same way for MANY MANY tourneys...but heres something to think about:

if there other players are going to play CRAP PF. Why join them and put yourself in such a mediocre spot? IF the flop is Qxx and you're facing a CB what do you do? Jxx flop - what do you do? You could quite easily end up playing the hand out the same way as the people you're refering to. Trust me - I've been there and done that too. I know.

Sure - it COULD be 66 or A10s OR 22 OR....but why even put yourself in those spots? If they're that "bad" why not put yourself in better spots and easier to play spots? Why risk it over such marginal spot?

Just some thoughts from a fellow low limit player...but like I said... I suck. (breakeven player mostly...)


I have tried MANY MANY strategies, and lately am re-settling into the classic very TAG play. Why play the same way the donks do? You're advantage is knowing what cards to play or fold, when and why. I've fallen into the trap several times of thinking I was better so I could play more recklessly...(read: like 'them') because I could 'play better' post-flop or 'out-play' them. (Read: FPS and leak of bluffing too much.) But thats a thought process that only costs you money.

Honestly in your spot in this hand...if the flop came QJ6 rainbow - I would really have to sit there and wonder if I even have the best hand or not...

[Snarf]

[ QUOTE ]
I know he didn't originally say it was a $5, but how do so many people limp and then call a big raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my biggest frustration right now. Every time I bust lately its to a limp/caller.

They limp for T100 - T200 and then call like 85% to 100% of their stack with hands like KJs or pocket 3s.

Sometimes I'll get calls from like...pocket 8s ... or A10s...those calls make half-sense...but its really annoying..

I should be able to look at loosey limpers, see AJo in my BB and safely push my FE. What? oh look. You limped with ducks and are now calling for 95% of your stack....

[Nick M]

I think he meant the initial limp....which I believe is wrong also. I doubt very highly he meant call the raise and play poker hahaha....at least I hope /images/graemlins/confused.gif.

His post said that it was folded around after villain's bet, so he's already HU.

I will agree - PF call is OK for someone who can play it postflop. However, someone who can play it postflop will not have such a question to post here.

Let's assume the villain has KK and just flopped top set.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1425283 - you're only a 44% dog.

If the villain has As9s - you're truly dead (2%), but the bet tells me he wants to win the pot RIGHT THERE, which means he's NOT holding the pure nuts.

Push