pot odds or tourney standing??

[DarrenX]

2405 in chips, table leader, 7 left. 75/150 blinds, I open in mp to 400 w/T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif. Solid player with 1150 thinks a bit and goes all in. Complete idiot, who earlier called 2 large stack all ins w/Q9o thinks and goes all in for 1225- it's back to me. Pot is a PHAT 2775 and it's 825 to call. does 3.4-1 make it a must call, or fold to save a healthy stack?

(converter didn't work, so here's the rough HH if interested):

***** Hand History for Game 3255044898 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:18563134 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Saturday, December 24, 15:45:15 EDT 2005
Table Table 67555 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: lulbond ( $1225 )
Seat 3: hankers68 ( $930 )
Seat 4: cubfanbob ( $1530 )
Seat 5: devancali25 ( $2270 )
Seat 8: DarrenX ( $2405 )
Seat 9: DddATL ( $490 )
Seat 10: leadership86 ( $1150 )
Trny:18563134 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to DarrenX [ Td Tc ]
cubfanbob folds.
devancali25 folds.
DarrenX raises [400].
DddATL folds.
leadership86 is all-In [1150]
lulbond will be using his time bank for this hand.
lulbond is all-In [1150]
hankers68 folds.
hankers68: zzzzz
DarrenX...

[45suited]

I think you have to call this

btw, those people who type 'zzzz' should be shot

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to call this

btw, those people who type 'zzzz' should be shot

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the most annoying thing about online poker

[DarrenX]

Didn't know about the zs until the HH- I play with chat off. I highly recommend it!

[yvesaint]

easy call

[ZBTHorton]

Call..and it's not even close.

[DarrenX]

Calling takes me down below 1200... no one agrees that I can fold and still have a healthy stack?

[ZBTHorton]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling takes me down below 1200... no one agrees that I can fold and still have a healthy stack?

[/ QUOTE ]

How good of a hand are you waiting for exactly?

[ QUOTE ]
Calling takes me down below 1200... no one agrees that I can fold and still have a healthy stack?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're still in decent shape even if you lose, and if you win you're in great shape to dominate until the money. You're just too far ahead of his range to fold. A very conservative estimate of his hands would be JJ+ and AQ+, and you're getting great odds even against that range. There are 24 ways he could have a bigger pair and 32 ways he could have AK/AQ. So you're more likely to be ahead, and you're getting about 2.5 to 1. Easy call factoring in the chances of a smaller pair, weaker ace, or even KQ.

[applejuicekid]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling takes me down below 1200... no one agrees that I can fold and still have a healthy stack?

[/ QUOTE ]

2000 is not that healthy and 1200 is not that desperate. What are you trying to do exactly fold your way into the money? I don't get it. This is an easy call.

[DarrenX]

What, to call here or in general? Folding leaves me over 2000. Calling and winning all but guarantees me ITM, but odds are I'm not winning this one, probably up against 3-4 overs if not an overpair. I'm not denying the odds are sweet, but is it worth losing solid standing?

[ZBTHorton]

2000 chips at 75/150 is not solid! And your not guarenteeing yourself a money finish either.

[DarrenX]

No, I'm saying winning with TT here would pretty much guarantee an ITM finisht. 2000 by no means guarantees me anything.

I'm severely hung over, and probably need to revisit this on a better day. I went with the odds and called, but wondered if it was so clear cut. The poll so far pretty much shows it is. Thanks for your replies.

[DarrenX]

There's an all in and a caller... easy call for me if there's only one pusher, but there's two here.

[ZBTHorton]

[ QUOTE ]
There's an all in and a caller... easy call for me if there's only one pusher, but there's two here.

[/ QUOTE ]

That makes me wanna call even more.

[DarrenX]

Well, in this instance, the second caller doesn't really mean I'm beat since he's a donk. What if the donk pushed and the solid player overpushed... make a difference?

[ZBTHorton]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, in this instance, the second caller doesn't really mean I'm beat since he's a donk. What if the donk pushed and the solid player overpushed... make a difference?

[/ QUOTE ]
Nope.

[ThrillFactor]

fold and you are left with t2050

call and you have 37% equity in a t3600 pot given the following ranges


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

183,637,171,872 games 282.000 secs 651,195,644 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 37.3081 % [ 00.37 00.01 ] { TT }
Hand 2: 40.2096 % [ 00.39 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-AJs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 3: 22.4823 % [ 00.22 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-Q9s, JTs, AKo-A2o, KQo-K9o, QJo-Q9o, JTo }


That equity equals t1332 plus the t1200 or so you have behind = t2500+ = clear call


Even if you tighten their ranges further:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

105,866,072,928 games 161.562 secs 655,265,922 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 35.2805 % [ 00.35 00.01 ] { TT }
Hand 2: 43.7864 % [ 00.42 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AJs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 3: 20.9331 % [ 00.20 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, AKo-A2o }



it's still an easy call by the math.


I do seem to always lose these tho /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[DarrenX]

Your a good man, Thrill, figuring that for me... ok, I'm convinced!

[ThrillFactor]

Actually, I had to do it for myself. My first thought was that you don't win this one enough. Even after hanging around these forums for 3 years, I still don't automatically believe everyone when they jump on the easy call/easy push wagon.

[valenzuela]

open push, I know that this has been probably been suggested like 10 times so far( i havent read any post except from yours)but really please push preflop or "!apuesta todo antes del flop!"

[ThrillFactor]

[ QUOTE ]
open push, I know that this has been probably been suggested like 10 times so far( i havent read any post except from yours)but really please push preflop or "!apuesta todo antes del flop!"

[/ QUOTE ]


Very good point. I didn't look at the seating 1st time thru, but obviously with the 3 shorties behind you an open push is in order.

Good catch.

[adanthar]

You shouldn't even worry about the second guy in because you know you're a big favorite vs. his range. If you would call the second all in on its own, the overcall simply sweetens the deal.

So the question is "would you call TT vs. the original push getting 2:1, plus an extra bonus?" Of course you call.

[Gramps]

Ugh, I wanted to puke at the indecision here (I get queasy more easily in my old age). TT may not seem too great here at first glance, that's why it pays to think it through/utilize software available to have a better understanding of these types of situations for when they come up in the future and you don't have much time to think and act.

[ QUOTE ]
Solid player with 1150 thinks a bit and goes all in. Complete idiot, who earlier called 2 large stack all ins w/Q9o thinks and goes all in for 1225

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling and winning all but guarantees me ITM, but odds are I'm not winning this one, probably up against 3-4 overs if not an overpair. I'm not denying the odds are sweet, but is it worth losing solid standing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Go to www.pokerstove.com (http://www.pokerstove.com) and download the software (for free). Put in likely hand ranges for you two opponents (how wide the solid player's range is depends on how wide a ragne he thinks you steal raise with here, how often you call over the tops (it apppears you fold to much from your discussion here), and how aggressive he is at coming over the top - it sounds like the idiot has a wider range than he should). I don't think you realize how strong TT is in a 3-way pot here - you're probably 33% at worst given that the 2nd caller is a moron. Also, a lot of "solid" players will come over the top of a frequent/suspected big stack steal raiser with a wider range, so don't eliminate some underpairs from SP (and definitely don't eliminate them from Mr. Moron). Just because you call with TT and run into an overpair sometimes doesn't mean calling is incorrect - the question is what hand range would these players make their push/call with in this spot, how does TT match up, and what does the risk/reward analysis look like here?

You're calling 825 to win ~ 3000, that's like 7:2. You're probably 1 in 3 at worst to win the 3-way pot (and only need to be > 2 in 9 for it to be +CEV). The pot odds scream "call," that's always a good default to go on for siutations like this if you're unsure of the "meta-factors" present. Also, you have the collateral benefit that you don't get a rep as someone who will fold to a push too easily.

If you call and lose, 1200 really isn't that much worse off than 2,000. You still have 8 BB, a few hands before you're in the blinds, and looking at the relative stack sizes, you're just back in a pack that you would have had a little lead over with 2k. Something lost, but nothing too awful.

On the flip side, calling and winning gives you an absolutely dominating position at the table with 4800 and the ability to steal every other hand or so (or more frequently once you get to the bubble). The chips you win give you a "multilier" advantage (or whatever the f--- you want to call it), that gives you an additional edge to steal, increasing on average the CEV (and likely $EV) of future hands.

Etc., etc., yada-yada, don't think yourself out of making calls in spots like this. If you're unsure, calling and losing still leaves you with FE, and the pot odds look about right, your default should be to call (there's times you fold, but folding is very bad here).