$55: 88 utg w/ the chip lead

[Taraz]

I felt very awkward in this situation. I didn't want to push but I was planning on calling any pushes behind me. Should I just raise a standard amount and see what happens?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

BB (t1732)
Hero (t3010)
MP (t1666)
CO (t707)
Button (t1570)
SB (t1315)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to ???</font>

I would make a standard raise and carry on from there

[pergesu]

I take it to 375, though I suppose you could just push since only one player has more than 10 BB, and it's just a hair more anyway.

[Taraz]

[ QUOTE ]
I take it to 375, though I suppose you could just push since only one player has more than 10 BB, and it's just a hair more anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly why I asked the question /images/graemlins/smirk.gif. Just wondering what "default" line everybody takes.

I think I'd raise 400 or so. If the table is very loose/aggressive I might fold it, but that's me. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[curtains]

I move allin preflop. Once everyone has basically 10x the BB or less (and its close here) I stop messing around with BS raises, since its so hard to fold to a reraise anyway and I dont want to encourage people.

[Marnixvdb]

Blinds seem too small too push this hand (SNGPT verifies this). The value of this hand goes up, the looser people call you so if you play it at all you should try to get it in vs. the widest range of worse hands. I don't think pushing achieves that. Depending on table tendencies raise/call reraise, or limp/reraise or call allin seem all better options than pushing. I fold this hand regularly, it's hardly worth to risk 10bb with it at this stage of the tourney, from this position.

[curtains]

SNGPT verifies this? I highly doubt it. How come people always claim that SNGPT gives a result when I know basically for sure that its not true. Perhaps against the perfect possible calling range its only slightly +EV, but based on my experience I know this is in the .2-.5% range. Anyway I'll work it out on my own in a few minutes.

[Nick M]

with 707 CO to act behind you, I might throw it away. I'm not looking to flip for 707 in chips. Yeah I guess I chuck it, and be a little annoyed about doing so.

[HelmetCrash]

When pushing a midrange pair in situations like these, I've found the following rule of thumb to often give the same push/fold advice as SNGPT and can be quickly estimated realtime in your head at the table before making the decision, if you get comfortable with it.

Calculate the odds of a single player holding a higher pair than yours. In this case it would be 1/220 * 6 = approx 1/40.

Calculate the total amount of money remaining players hold, in units of BB (unless they hold more than you, then use your stack size). In this case it is right around 50 BB.

Multiply these two numbers 50 x 1/40 = approx 1.2. If this number is smaller than one, then the correct play is to push. If this number is larger than one, then the correct play is to fold.

Using this analysis for this hand, this quick estimate shows it to be a very close call between pushing and folding, with folding the correct choice. By tweaking the number used to determine push/fold (perhaps something like 1.4 would be a better than 1.0?), this method may be improved.

Anyways, I often use this estimate as quick realtime guidance at the tables to keep me from making larger mistakes. What do you guys think of this rule of thumb?

[curtains]

btw I would never fold this ever, and havent once in my last few thousand sit and gos. I'd say that if you do fold this you probably have some other major problems. This is simply a +EV push, not to mention just a +EV normal raise.

[Taraz]

[ QUOTE ]
with 707 CO to act behind you, I might throw it away. I'm not looking to flip for 707 in chips. Yeah I guess I chuck it, and be a little annoyed about doing so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this at all. You fold this because you are afraid of the small stack? I'd still have 2300 chips and the chip lead if I lost to him. If I could go heads up with him with 88 against AK I would love it in this situation.

By the way, the only chance I was going to fold this would be a misclick.

[valenzuela]

the flaw with ure logic is that ure supposing that everybodys range consists of calling with 99+.

[Mr_J]

[ QUOTE ]
but based on my experience I know this is in the .2-.5% range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very good.

[Nick M]

when there is 6 people left, I don't make to much of having 3k in chips and the chip lead. I still don't take flip risks. Just the way I play. Although I will admit that If I feel I can steal...like strongly feel I can steal, I may raise to 400. But I doubt it.

EDIT: I also never play on Party, so chip average is waaaayyyy different when I hold 3k.

[Shillx]

Pushing is +EV (reference is folding) but that doesn't mean it is the best play. Since I'm a push/fold player, I would push. Folding is dead wrong in this spot.

[Marnixvdb]

SNGPT gives 0.4% against tight calling ranges, which is in the range you assumed (0.2%-0.5%). SNGPT advocates not pushing when the EV is &lt;0.5%, but I can understand your point if you want to take any +EV edge, however small it may be. I sometimes push this hand, but also sometimes fold it. Since it's so close, it probably doesnt matter significantly if you fold or push, unless the table calls very loose, making a push significantly better.

[Taraz]

[ QUOTE ]
SNGPT gives 0.4% against tight calling ranges, which is in the range you assumed (0.2%-0.5%). SNGPT advocates not pushing when the EV is &lt;0.5%, but I can understand your point if you want to take any +EV edge, however small it may be. I sometimes push this hand, but also sometimes fold it. Since it's so close, it probably doesnt matter significantly if you raise or push . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate FYP's, but FYP.

You all make it so complicated. You have 88. You're not folding. You're also not raising because you can't fold to a reraise. Blinds are big enough that you are approaching push/fold mode anyway, and you are probably ten tabling, so just shove and move on to the next table already.

[curtains]

OK LET ME MAKE THIS CLEAR BECAUSE ITS VERY IMPORTANT. SNGPT does not advocate not pushing when the advantage is less than .5%. If you believe thats the case then you are so drastically abusing the product that its not even funny. Do you realize what .5% advantage is at the $109s? It's about $5. Do you realize thats 5 ROI points right there? I mean if your ROI is something like 50% then maybe you can give them up, but otherwise its not even remotely close. Anything above .2% is basically always an automatic play for me, and people who regularly fold in these spots are being morons IMO. If you want to throw away 2-4 ROI points on one single hand then be my guest. I'd love to be that cavalier with my ROI.

The .5 minimum edge is an EXTREMELY bad default setting. If you pay attention to that you will be playing terrible poker.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
SNGPT gives 0.4% against tight calling ranges, which is in the range you assumed (0.2%-0.5%). SNGPT advocates not pushing when the EV is &lt;0.5%, but I can understand your point if you want to take any +EV edge, however small it may be. I sometimes push this hand, but also sometimes fold it. Since it's so close, it probably doesnt matter significantly if you fold or push, unless the table calls very loose, making a push significantly better.

[/ QUOTE ]

The minimum I see in SNGPT is that this is a +0.6% EV (at TT+, AQs, AKo), And goes up the whether calling ranges move in either direction.

[curtains]

It shouldnt be that highly +EV....you mean it goes down when the calling ranges move in the other directions?

[Marnixvdb]

[ QUOTE ]
OK LET ME MAKE THIS CLEAR BECAUSE ITS VERY IMPORTANT. SNGPT does not advocate not pushing when the advantage is less than .5%. If you believe thats the case then you are so drastically abusing the product that its not even funny. Do you realize what .5% advantage is at the $109s? It's about $5. Do you realize thats 5 ROI points right there? I mean if your ROI is something like 50% then maybe you can give them up, but otherwise its not even remotely close. Anything above .2% is basically always an automatic play for me, and people who regularly fold in these spots are being morons IMO. If you want to throw away 2-4 ROI points on one single hand then be my guest. I'd love to be that cavalier with my ROI.

The .5 minimum edge is an EXTREMELY bad default setting. If you pay attention to that you will be playing terrible poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thx for the clarification. One question though, do you have any idea on how accurate SNGPT is? Or the ICM for that matter. I always assumed the 0.5% margin also had to do with the (slight) inaccuracy of the underlying EV model.

[curtains]

I dunno, its been working fine for me and my independant mathematical work for the most part verifies the findings of the progrm.