$30/$60 hand for Andy B.

[Vehn]

$30/$60 canterbury 7ish handed. Famous 2+2 celebrity Andy B is in the game.

EP open raises. MP calls. LP calls. I call in the BB with http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/8d.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/8c.jpg.

Flop:

http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/kc.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/5d.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/3d.jpg

I bet, EP folds, MP folds, LP calls.

Turn:

http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/kc.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/5d.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/3d.jpg http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/6d.jpg

I bet, LP raises. Now what?

Suppose I call. The river is:

http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/kc.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/5d.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/3d.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/6d.jpg http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/8h.jpg

Now what?

[Clarkmeister]

Turn: I "bet, LP raises. Now what?"

#1: What range of hands do you put him on?

River: "Now what?"

#2: See #1 There is no way you should be caught flatfooted when this card hits.




On the turn, I would put him on either a big king or a small set. The vast majority of players will raise the flop headsup with the flush draw. This means I am certainly calling the turn because my diamond is very likely to be clean and the pot is big.

On the river, you really catch your best card. Given the read of big King or a set, is this player the type to bet the river? I would suspect that he would bet the river with either holding, and go for a checkraise. The downside to this is that he may either 1. Not bet, or 2. Actually have a flush. Those reasons may make leading out the safer, though less sexy play. I think this one is entirely dependant on your specific opponent.

[Vehn]

I had never seen him before but seemed like the typical bit too loose bit too aggressive type. Call me Mason.

[Clarkmeister]

Then you checkraise.

[Ginogino]

Clark:
I really like your analysis and recommendation here.

Gino

[elysium]

hi vehn
it looks like a fold on the turn to me. what else could the LP have? your odds are poop; fold.

assuming that you mistakenly called, and the river produces an 8, there is a strong liklihood of your opponent betting again so check-call. no need to get fancy here. and if he is bluffing with a busted draw, your check will induce another bet.

[Andy B]

I had played with this guy a couple of times recently, and I would say that he is more than a little too loose and aggressive. He was also tilting. I don't want to comment further right now, except that I will say that I knew I'd be reading about this hand today. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Mikey]

I don't understand why you called the turn here?

How can you call the turn?

To me it looks like an easy fold on the turn.

Please someone explain to me why this thinking is wrong.

[Vehn]

If he has a small set I have 10 outs. If he has a big king without a diamond I have 11 outs.

[J.A.Sucker]

... and if he only has the singleton Ad, then you're in the lead. Loose and aggressive players will do this. You have an easy call on the turn. As for the river, I agree with Clark 100% - if you think he'll bet, then checkraise the river. Otherwise, betting out ain't bad.

[Vehn]

I did indeed checkraise the river, my opponent called, and slammed his pocket 6s down in disgust and stormed off in a tilty rage. This wasn't really a "fair" hand to post as I was pretty sure where I was on all streets. He hesitantly called my flop bet in the "not sure if I should fold or call" way, not the "call or raise" way. I put him on a hand like A5 or a medium pocket pair.

[Mikey]

nice read.

[Chris Nichelson]

I don't think your bet on the flop was bad. Your turn bet, however, wasn't smart.

I would fold to a raise here.

Check and call the river.

[Chris Nichelson]

If you were pretty sure where you were on the turn, shouldn't you have laid it down?

Even if you were beat by two small pair--say 6c5c, I am not sure you had odds to call.

[Ed Miller]

Even if you were beat by two small pair--say 6c5c, I am not sure you had odds to call.

He has frush draw... no folding here.

[Ed Miller]

Several of you suggested that Chris should fold to the turn raise. Folding to the turn raise is a big mistake, and you should be able to figure out why.

The river checkraise is brilliant... this was a very well-played hand.

[Chris Nichelson]

Would you bet that eight high flush into the raiser on the river too?

[Ulysses]

I don't agree w/ most of the posters that a flush draw will raise heads-up enough of the time to make the turn call automatic. Against many players, you're drawing dead there. Against many others, you're drawing to two outs.

Many good mid-limit opponents (which presumably this player recognizes Vehn as) are not going to let you get away with a free card raise. What is Vehn most likely to be betting out with here? A King. If his opponent has a flush draw, he knows if Vehn has a decent King (which he does if he has a King and called a raise) he'll probably 3-bet him on the flop. For that reason, if I'm him in LP with JdTd, I'm probably going to flat-call Vehn's bet. Now, I may well raise a miss on the turn, but that's a whole different tangent. A lot of players may also cold-call a raise in LP w/ something like KhQd and flat-call the flop, planning to raise the turn.

Clark puts the opponent on either a small set or a big King. OK, if it's a big King, why so confident it doesn't go with a big diamond?

As the hand went down, would you fold to a river 3-bet? Or call down to see the flush?

Would you still recommend a river checkraise if a diamond hits? Or bet out? In either case, what if raised/re-raised?

I think too much of the turn and river recommendations here are predicated on the assumption that this opponent will raise the flop heads-up w/ a flush draw a vast majority of the time. While many do, I'm not sure that it's enough to make calling the turn and putting multiple bets in on the river a winning proposition.

I think there's enough of a chance that the opponent has either a made flush or a King w/ a diamond that folding the turn might be better. And I definitely disagree that calling is a "must" or folding is a "big mistake."

[Ed Miller]

Would you bet that eight high flush into the raiser on the river too?

Yes. You probably have the best hand, and your opponent is likely to call.

[Ed Miller]

Yes, occasionally your read is wrong and you are drawing dead. But you are getting 8-1 on your turn call. Often, you will have 10 outs, sometimes you will have the best hand, and sometimes you will be drawing dead (or to two outs against a bigger pair and bigger diamond).

The point is that Chris says he had a solid read. His opponent hesitated before he called the flop. Then he raises the turn. The 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif improved his hand. How? Either because his opponent has the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.. maybe A6, or the 6 gave him two pair or a set. His read clearly says that, if behind, he has plenty of outs.

Against an opponent who would only raise the turn with a flush, obviously you then fold to the turn raise. But given his read, the appropriate action is clear, IMO.

[Clarkmeister]

" if it's a big King, why so confident it doesn't go with a big diamond?"

It can. But he's only going to have a big diamond 1 in 4 times. So you need a 25% premium on your pot odds to hit your presumed 11 outer. Vehn is getting 8-1 here, a considerable overlay over the 3-1 odds he requires assuming his outs are clean. Add in premium for the 25% of the time his flush outs aren't clean and he's still getting double the price he needs. With that kind of overlay, he can even compensate for the times his opponent does have a flush. Folding with that kind of overlay definitely is a big mistake.

Its just as easy a turn call as the one you made against Beetz with 66 vs his AQ with all the overcards and the flush draw out on the board. The pot is simply way too big when you have a 1 card flush draw and your opponent likely has only a 1 in 4 chance of having you "covered". And even then the set is usually good.

[Vehn]

I think your response makes sense, however, think about what I said in the results post. When he hesistantly called my flop bet basically what he's telling me (or what I thought he was telling me) was that he has a hand that can beat a semibluffing flush draw if two black deuces come. Now when I'm raised on the turn I think my course of action is pretty easy and I have an easy river checkraise. I would have called a river 3-bet also; and just bet out if a 4th dime came on the river instead of my supersuckout card.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
The point is that Chris says he had a solid read.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that after Chris told us this:

[ QUOTE ]
He hesitantly called my flop bet in the "not sure if I should fold or call" way, not the "call or raise" way.

[/ QUOTE ]

that things become much clearer.

But most of the comments were based on his initial description of the hand, which had no such details. Based on the initial post, I still don't think the turn call is automatic.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your response makes sense, however, think about what I said in the results post.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I just responded to MK, I agree w/ calling the raise and your river plan after you gave us the additional info in the results post. My response was based on the responses people were giving to your initial post.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
It can. But he's only going to have a big diamond 1 in 4 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

King is King of clubs, so won't that change the numbers to 1 in 2?

[Clarkmeister]

True enough. So you want 4.5-1 instead of 3-1.

8-1 still looks mighty tasty to me.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
" if it's a big King, why so confident it doesn't go with a big diamond?"

It can. But he's only going to have a big diamond 1 in 4 times. So you need a 25% premium on your pot odds to hit your presumed 11 outer. Vehn is getting 8-1 here, a considerable overlay over the 3-1 odds he requires assuming his outs are clean. Add in premium for the 25% of the time his flush outs aren't clean and he's still getting double the price he needs. With that kind of overlay, he can even compensate for the times his opponent does have a flush. Folding with that kind of overlay definitely is a big mistake.


[/ QUOTE ]

OK, so he has 8.75 outs (11 * .75 + 2 * .25) vs. a King. And 10 outs against a small set. For kicks, let's say 9 outs against those two hands. In reality, I think an average opponent is less likely to raise with a non-diamond King, so the situation is probably a little worse than this.

Against those hands, he gets about 4:1 w/ the pot laying him 8:1. So, the EV in those cases is about 20%(9 - most of the times it'll be the diamond and he'll only get one more bet) - 80%(1) = .8.

But he is drawing dead to a flush. In those cases, he'll lose 80%(1 - the times he "misses") + 20% (2 - a little more if he always pays off the raise and pays 3 bets when an eight hits) = -1.2

So, if his opponent has a flush 40% of the time here, this is a break even proposition. If his opponent only has a flush here 25% of the time, this is like a +.3BB situation. Lacking any other info (such as the flop read Vehn makes), I think this turn raise indicates a flush more than 25% of the time.

I did these odds of the top of my head and didn't check anything, so I'm sure something is off, but I don't think anything is outrageously wrong. I just don't agree with you that when opponents raise the turn in this situation that they will have a flush so seldom as to make folding a "big mistake."

[ QUOTE ]
Its just as easy a turn call as the one you made against Beetz with 66 vs his AQ with all the overcards and the flush draw out on the board. The pot is simply way too big when you have a 1 card flush draw and your opponent likely has only a 1 in 4 chance of having you "covered". And even then the set is usually good.

[/ QUOTE ]

First off, no fair bring up old hands of mine to make your point against me. That's cold. /images/graemlins/grin.gif In that situation, though, I put him squarely on AQ/AK. I can read that kid like a book. There were no As, Ks, or Qs on the board. Three hearts on the flop, fourth on the turn, fifth on the river. I knew he'd bet the whole way with or without a heart. I called him down the whole way, thinking there was a good chance I was in the lead start to finish. I agree that there are similarities, but I don't think it's really the same situation.

[Ulysses]

based on what AceHigh pointed out, the outs against a King are .5(11) + .5(2) = 6.5, not 8.75. Not going to bother revising the derived numbers, but that means that this is a breakeven situation when the opponent has a flush somewhere lower than 40% of the time.

[Andy B]

I think that this is the first time I've ever seen set over set where neither player had his hand on the flop. It made my night. Or was it my afternoon? vehn_'s opponent had suffered a couple of tough beats during this session, and was already steaming. This put him over the edge, though. I thought that vehn_'s play was a little unconventional, but I liked it the more I thought about it. I'll bet an underpair into a pre-flop raiser once in a while, and it seems like I never drag a pot that way. I liked vehn_'s flop bet a hell of a lot more than opponent's call, though. I think that if you're going to play an underpair on a two-tone flop, you should have a card in the trump suit so that your money card doesn't put a possible flush out there. Clarkmeister's analysis is on the money. I don't usually play smallish pairs hoping that I'll hit a flush, though. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Chris Nichelson]

I like the flop bet.

On the turn, there is too much stuff out there that can beat you that a caller could have. You could also easily have him beat. Why not check/call here? I am usually not an advocate of this, but heads up with a large pot with the most obvious and second most obvious draws getting there simultaneously, I would give someone with an underpair or a busted straight draw a chance to bluff at it here.

Calling the turn raise as a 21-1 dog in this spot, with a few questionable flush outs (most of the time the fourth flush card on the board is going to beat you if you if you have an eight high flush draw), in a spot where you could be drawing dead--I just don't get it. If I bet in this spot, I know that I am throwing it away to a raise, so with the pot being big, i am not betting.

The river checkraise is OK I guess, since you do beat most nonflush hands, and somehow you are convinced he doesn't have a flush.

I'm perplexed.

[Chris Nichelson]

If he has AdKh you have 2 outs.

If he has 9d7d you have no outs.

If he has any diamond higher than an eight with another diamond you have no outs.

The spots where you have no outs or two outs greatly outweigh the spots where he is bluffing or where you have 10 or 11 outs.

I wouldn't have gotten myself into this spot--I would have check called the turn.

[Coilean]

Although I initially thought this looked like an easy call on the turn too, after a little analysis I am inclined to agree with Ulysses that it's only marginal.

Unless it's safe to fold to a bet against this guy on the river if you check (which doesn't sound at all like the case to me), you are frequently making a $120 call on the turn, which may leave your drawing odds much closer to 4.7:1 than the tasty 8.3:1 you seem to be getting. This is still plenty to make a call for 10 outs, but since you probably have 0 or 2 outs around half the time, it's starting to get a bit anemic.

Looking at it another way, at the time of the turn raise, there is $500 in the pot, and for simplicity assume there is always a bet and call on the river (which is probably what would happen 70+ % of the time anyway), meaning you are laying $120 to win $560. Against a medium king with a single diamond (say, 10 combos of KQ-J) your EV would then be 42/44(-120) + 2/44(+560) = -89.1 (-1.48BB). Against a small set (66 55 33, for 9 combos) your EV would be 33/44(-120) + 11/44(+560) = +50.0 (+0.83BB). Against a medium king without a diamond (say, KQ-J KTs for 13 combos) your EV would be 34/44(-120) + 10/44(+560) = +34.54 (+0.58BB). Against a flush (say AXd KQ-98d KJ-T8d KTd, for 21 combos, but call it only 10 combos for the unlikely seeming play) your EV is -2BB.

So, against the weighted lineup of {KQ-J KTs AXd QJ-98d QT-T8d 33 55 66} where exactly 1 more bet always goes in on the river, your EV is -1.48BB(10/42) + 0.83BB(9/42) + 0.58BB(13/42) + -2BB(10/42) = -0.47BB. If you give your opponent an average of 6 outs those times he is making a move on you, your EV for those times he's screwing around is 38/44(+560) + 6/44(-120) = +467 (+7.78BB), meaning you can break even as long as he's making a move at least 6% of the time.

And all of this means that for this to be an "easy" call, you probably want to be against on opponent who has a 10+ % chance of being on a steal. And given the board and the betting, there just shouldn't be many hands he can still be in there with that warrant a move (Ad5x? AdQx? 76s? 44?). So I give this one a firm stamp of "marginal".

[Clarkmeister]

Well thought out as usual. The problem here is that since you are assuming a call on the river, then by default that assumes a greater than 10% chance of Vehn's opponent "making a move", no? If there is only a 6% chance of that, then why would you call the river? In other words, by saying that you must call the river, it implies that the opponent is, in fact, making a move more than the 10% of the time that is required for calling the turn to be +EV.

Perhaps I'm wrong, but I don't see any need to call the river at all unless I have a specific read at the table that the player is, in fact, making a move, and then I would assume the chances of a bluff far exceed the 10% I need to call his river bet. As a generic hand, I'd be surprised if he was making a move more than 5% of the time. Though I didn't state it explicitly, when I posted my initial read and recommendation in this thread, it was with the assumption that I would fold on the river if faced with another bet and I did not improve.

And I still disagree with Ulysses about the chances that a flush draw held by a "too aggressive" player would smoothcall the flop. You did discount the possibility in your analysis though, so I'll go with the reduced chance.