Pocket Aces and a beginner

Hi All....Another beginner dilema. Hero is UTG. UTG+1 is an absolute
maniac.....he's comes into 70-80 percent of the hands (with a raise regardless
of position or how many have lagged in front)......I was going to leave the table when the blinds got to me again....but then I get dealt A /images/graemlins/spade.gif
A /images/graemlins/club.gif......the CO has not even entered a hand since I got to the table (about
15 hands ago)........

Preflop:

Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, everyone folds to CO who caps. SB folds, BB
calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop[ 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif]
BB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, BB calls

Turn[9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif]
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO raises, everyone calls,

River[4 /images/graemlins/club.gif}
BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1`bets, CO raises, BB folds, Hero calls, UTG+1
3-bets, CO caps, Hero folds.

DId I screw up here by calling the first time on the river? I had top pair....
there was no flush possible......

thanks in advance for the critique.....

Jim

[moose47]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 is an absolute
maniac.....he's comes into 70-80 percent of the hands (with a raise regardless
of position or how many have lagged in front)......I was going to leave the table when the blinds got to me again

[/ QUOTE ]

It would take an act of God to get me off of this table.


As for the hand, I would go ahead and call the river again. Looks like you are getting about 15:1 on the final river call as the pot is huge. Since UTG+1 is a total maniac he could be going crazy with just a pair. I'd call and hope CO shows KK.

[shant]

Fold the river the first time.

[HouseCalls]

Preflop - good
Flop - Fine but you have to be aware that there is a flush draw and a straight draw out that will coordinate with hgh cards that people love to play.
Turn - With the action so far CO's raise probably means you are dead but I think you just call down from here with top pair (plus if CO made two pair you may counterfeit him if the board pairs).
River - with this action I think you might fold to the raise (against one player call but the second player in can't be bluffing)

[moose47]

I'm just wondering, what is your read on the maniac postflop? The more I think about this hand, I am probably folding it on the river the first time unless UTG+1 is just as crazy after the flop as he is before it. On the river, worst case scenario is you have to pay 4 bets to see a showdown and you are getting 7:1. CO's range is most likely QQ+ and the maniac's range could be anything depending on how crazy he is. If he is a chip-spewing uber-LAG postflop then I have no problem paying 4 bets. If he is just wild before the flop but only continues on with a hand, then I am throwing it away.

[shant]

Regardless of if the guy is a postflop maniac or not, you should consider the CO's hand and all previous action before being happy about putting in 4 bets on the river to see a showdown with one pair.

[Yerma]

You made a big mistake on the flop. You can't protect your hand, and you're not getting good value with your raise either since anyone with a reasonable draw is not that much of a dog to you. You're supposed to call, let the BB bet again (or sometimes bet and sometimes c/r if the BB just checks) and raise him on the turn if the card that fell is good for you. If something like a Jh falls on the turn, you can just call the turn and minimize your exposure to this hand rather than raise to knock players out.

Some people might say that you fail to gain information by not raising the flop. I'd rather try to knock players out on the turn, occasionally stealing the pot away from someone who would have gotten lucky, rather than try to save a few bets in a big pot because you got some information.

[ QUOTE ]
Regardless of if the guy is a postflop maniac or not, you should consider the CO's hand and all previous action before being happy about putting in 4 bets on the river to see a showdown with one pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it possible that CO value raises this river based on the previous hands he's watched the maniac play, with a hand worse than Aces.


The pot is something like 23BB when it gets to Hero on the river.
CO could be trying to shut Hero out of the GIGANTIMUNGONORMOUS pot and get it HU with maniac on the river.

IMO CO is raising with a worse hand than Hero more than the required 9% of the time for Hero to make the call.


EDIT:
AA - 1 combo
KK - 6 combos
AQ - 6 combos
QQ - 3 combos
TT - 3 combos
99 - 3 combos
KQ?

I don't think the hands we lose to will ever be 10x the number of hands we beat. And if we know for a fact that it is going to 4 bets on the river, I still think it's a tough call.

To the OP: Once you call the first time on the river, you have to call the second time round. The pot is SOO huge that you would have to be 95% sure you were beaten to fold here. I don't think you could ever be that sure when there is an unknown and a maniac involved.
Calling and finding out you lost is way more +EV than folding and finding out you would have won.

[shant]

He has a capper and a maniac behind him. What drawing hand do you put the guy who capped on? AK is seeing the river here. The maniac is seeing a river. I don't see this as a waiting to protect your hand situation. This is a raise and hope lots of money goes in situation.

[moose47]

I am definitely more concerned about CO than the maniac. That said, CO's hand range preflop is probably QQ+, AK. He is reasonably tight as he hasnt played a hand in two orbits, unless he has been absolutely card dead. We can safely remove AK based on the turn raise. I think his most likely holding is QQ and he decided to wait until the turn to go nuts. I just think there exists a chance that he has KK or AA and decided for whatever reason to wait until the turn. It certainly isnt a very good chance but it doesn't have to be.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is something like 23BB when it gets to Hero on the river.
CO could be trying to shut Hero out of the GIGANTIMUNGONORMOUS pot and get it HU with maniac on the river.

IMO CO is raising with a worse hand than Hero more than the required 9% of the time for Hero to make the call.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a good point. The CO would have to be a pretty advanced player to be trying this after that turn action, but you have a point. I think it's closer than I originally thought, but it's still definitely a fold the second time around.

[Yerma]

Why do you automatically give the CO credit for that sort of deep thought? This is one of the worst faults of the typical 2+2'er. You believe that someone is capable of pulling a fantastic move *every time that you are almost certainly losing a big pot* because you imagine that you might be able to pull such a move in the other guy's spot. The truth is that you are getting destroyed here for 4 bets on the river way way too often to go off for 4 bets.

Here is the remedy: first, observe that the player is capable of this sort of play by seeing what he had after the hand. Now, armed with an actual read, make the appropriate play next time. Don't play him like he's an awesome, tricky, 4-bet with less than the nuts, player. Play him for a typical player first and augment this with reads later.

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you automatically give the CO credit for that sort of deep thought? This is one of the worst faults of the typical 2+2'er. You believe that someone is capable of pulling a fantastic move *every time that you are almost certainly losing a big pot* because you imagine that you might be able to pull such a move in the other guy's spot. The truth is that you are getting destroyed here for 4 bets on the river way way too often to go off for 4 bets.

Here is the remedy: first, observe that the player is capable of this sort of play by seeing what he had after the hand. Now, armed with an actual read, make the appropriate play next time. Don't play him like he's an awesome, tricky, 4-bet with less than the nuts, player. Play him for a typical player first and augment this with reads later.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is you haven't seen a single hand this guy has played. When there is a huge amount of money at stake and I'm dealing with an unknown, I'm going to treat him like he's Ed Miller.

[shant]

That's interesting, usually I treat an unknown as a typical player. Is this your standard for unknowns to swing them to good TAG players?

[ QUOTE ]
That's interesting, usually I treat an unknown as a typical player. Is this your standard for unknowns to swing them to good TAG players?

[/ QUOTE ]

Only when there is a ridiculous amount of money in the pot, a maniac and an unknown are involved and the decision is between calling and folding.

Otherwise: default = donk. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Shillx]

Yeah calling on the flop really doesn't make much sense here, even with a maniac behind us. While a turn raise might knock out AK, it only nets us like 2.2 SB (assuming our hand is always good). Some times we will be way behind, so you would have to adjust it somewhat.

We probably have 45% equity on this flop and have a chance to get 16 SB into the middle. That is worth 3.2 SB right there. If we just call, sometimes it will be called though and then we get to raise the turn. Oftentimes it will get raised by the maniac and we will put a reraise in coming back. So even when we just call, we will usually be 3-betting or capping it anyway. Calling and then calling a raise is just way to risky because the only way to face the CO with 2 cold is to donk into the maniac. Even then, he might not fold that said AK. Might as well just goto war straight away and take the value.

The CO's line is worrisome, but is also quite fishy. His play sucks with a weak hand because nothing better is ever going to fold, and his play sucks with a strong hand since it will start slowing hands like AA down. Bad players do this [censored] all the time though, so I would not be suprised to see the joint here. He could have won a lot more by playing it straight up.

Brad

Dont fold the river. What do you think beats you??? Maybe a straight but the pot is big.

[Yerma]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah calling on the flop really doesn't make much sense here, even with a maniac behind us. While a turn raise might knock out AK, it only nets us like 2.2 SB (assuming our hand is always good). Some times we will be way behind, so you would have to adjust it somewhat.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand the "nets us like 2.2 SB (assuming our hand is always good)" part. Why 2.2 SB?

[ QUOTE ]

We probably have 45% equity on this flop and have a chance to get 16 SB into the middle. That is worth 3.2 SB right there. If we just call, sometimes it will be called though and then we get to raise the turn. Oftentimes it will get raised by the maniac and we will put a reraise in coming back. So even when we just call, we will usually be 3-betting or capping it anyway.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I agree. If the maniac raises, we can 3-bet for value now. My problem with this argument is that you think we are knocking out the CO on the flop if he faces 2 cold w/AK. Unless you know him to be weak-tight, I don't think he is folding for 2 cold there! If you're trying to knock out AK, it's only going to happen on the turn. Any other hand CO might have had that only hit the flop sideways? You're still only knocking that out on the turn. That's my real problem with your argument. Those 16 SB you are trying to get into the middle are all in big danger when the river falls. You may end up gaining 3.2 SB and losing the pot. This is probably going to end up being a 20BB pot. If you let a gutshot or a one pair hand get a shot at seeing the river, you're dumping about 10% of what's going to end up being a 20BB pot. If you're up against both of those draws and could have knocked them *both* out (which would have been a coup) but took the value on the flop instead, that is horrible.

[ QUOTE ]

...

The CO's line is worrisome, but is also quite fishy. His play sucks with a weak hand because nothing better is ever going to fold, and his play sucks with a strong hand since it will start slowing hands like AA down. Bad players do this [censored] all the time though, so I would not be suprised to see the joint here. He could have won a lot more by playing it straight up.


[/ QUOTE ]

And if he has a weak hand, you're still probably better knocking him out on the turn or forcing him to make a big, bad call. And if he has (or turns) a strong hand, the turn card may come bad and slow you down all by itself, and you'll be happy you didn't raise the flop.

[shant]

He's not saying you will knock AK out on the flop. You're really worrying too much about one opponent's hand and protecting against that and forgetting about the maniac and the other player.

Also, you didn't address your plan for when the maniac raises if you just call the flop. Are you 3-betting then? How are you waiting to protect at that point? What if the CO raises you on the flop?

[Yerma]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I agree. If the maniac raises, we can 3-bet for value now.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the heat of battle, if the CO 3-bets, I may try to just call again on the flop and c/r the CO on the turn if a blank hits. It might be better to just 3-bet the flop instead.

[ QUOTE ]
If you let a gutshot or a one pair hand get a shot at seeing the river, you're dumping about 10% of what's going to end up being a 20BB pot. If you're up against both of those draws and could have knocked them *both* out (which would have been a coup) but took the value on the flop instead, that is horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

In multiway pots, I'm worried about everyone's hand.

[Shillx]

When we raise the turn, the pot will be about 30 SB if you assume that the manaic calls and the CO folds. If getting that AK to fold nets us 7% more equity, then the raise buys us 30*.07 = 2.1 SB of the pot. Of course he also loses on every bet that goes in, so by coldcalling he is losing ~2.7 SB on that street should he have 8% equity. So he would be making a bigger mistake by coldcalling then folding (though it might not benefit us).

Let's say that you are playing a hand where you have 40% equity, Player A has 30% equity and Player B has 30% equity. If you bet, Player B will always fold and the pot is right now 9 BB (before you either check or bet 1 BB). Is he making a good fold? Are you making a good bet?

We all know that he is making a bad fold, but you may or may not be making a good bet. If you have 70% equity and player A has 30% after he folds, then the bet was good. If you still have 40% and player A has 60%, then the bet sucks. Just because the dude with AK has 8% equity doesn't mean that it all goes to our aces when he folds. So it is tough to evaluate the EV of knocking him out of this pot. Him coldcalling could very well benefit us more (and the math on it is very close). Assume we have 50% equity if he coldcalls.

Pot Equity from a cold call = 34 sb*.5 - 4 = 13 sb
EV fold = 30 sb*.57 - 17 sb = + 0.1 sb

So in that case, it really doesn't matter if he calls or folds. I'll make more comments about your post in bit, but there a lot of points in your reply that need to be addressed.

Edited

[Yerma]

[ QUOTE ]

Let's say that you are playing a hand where you have 40% equity, Player A has 30% equity and Player B has 30% equity. If you bet, Player B will always fold and the pot is right now 9 BB (before you either check or bet 1 BB). Is he making a good fold? Are you making a good bet?


[/ QUOTE ]

The majority of the equity in knocking someone out in a hand like this is going to go to the current best made hand. Odds are, that's going to be the AA. If someone flopped a set and blanks keep falling, this is going to be an expensive hand...so be it.

[Shillx]

And if he has a weak hand, you're still probably better knocking him out on the turn or forcing him to make a big, bad call. And if he has (or turns) a strong hand, the turn card may come bad and slow you down all by itself, and you'll be happy you didn't raise the flop.

This is fatal thinking in a hand like this. This isn't like having

5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif on a J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif flop.

-or-

6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif on a K /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif flop.

We know what the bad cards are in the above hands. We have no idea what the bad cards are in the AA hand (though we have an idea of what is good). Assume a king comes off on 4th street. Is that good or bad? Stove says it is bad, but not terrible. How about a queen? Stove is indifferent to that card eventhough it looks pretty scary. A nine is about the same as a queen according to PokerStove. The 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif puts us in the same place as the 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

There are going to be a decent # of cards that we don't want to see (any K/J/9 or 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif) and still more below average cards (/images/graemlins/heart.gif/Q/9/8). The problem is that we can't seperate the bad cards from the scary ones. It is much better to wait when you have a idea of what really kills your equity. In this hand we know that our equity is huge on the flop, and that we are almost always boss. Worrying that we might be behind is terrible reason to not step on the gas pedal. Good for him if he flopped three queens this time. The vast majority of the time he will have a hand that is ready to payoff all bets.

Great discussion guys! I'm still reading and rereading the above......maybe
someday in the heat of the battle I can make some of these plays. Most
of the time, I just try to make the straight up value play with no trickery.

I think that on the river, I should have made up my mind to either call it
through or check-fold before it hit......so I threw away two big bets at
the very least.

The CO had K/images/graemlins/club.gifJ/images/graemlins/club.gif! He won with a straight.
This hand has been haunting me.....I thought, How could he cap with these
cards???? But, now I think that what he was doing was waiting for his
opportunity for the maniac. The maniac 3-bet, he didn't respect the
maniacs raising standards, he hadn't seen much from me....so he saw his chance and went for it. Good play on his part........

Jim

PS: What do you guys do when there is a maniac like this on your left?????
moose47 said that he would never leave a table like this......I'm thinking
that I should only bet when I WANT it to be raised behind me? So basically
I would play the SSHE recommendations for what to do when confronted with
a raise.

[shant]

It would be better to have a seat on the maniac's left, but I wouldn't leave the table. It's better to play at a table with a maniac, just wait for an oppurtunity to switch seats.

When there is a maniac behind me who is going to raise 90% of the hands I tend to tighten up a little and not play the more speculative hands on the SSHE chart. When I get a hand that has a draw on the flop, a hand that I would usually raise to protect I tend to get passive and let the maniac do the raising since you can't protect against him and usually the rest of the table won't go away to another raise. If the draw hits or I have a monster that hits the flop I will usually c/r the maniac then push the hand hard. Generally I get more patient and hope I'm the one who catches a hand against him. The second or third time he sucks out against my monsters is about all I can stand before finding a better table.

[ QUOTE ]

The problem is you haven't seen a single hand this guy has played. When there is a huge amount of money at stake and I'm dealing with an unknown, I'm going to treat him like he's Ed Miller.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know what limits you play, but if they're from .25/.50 to 2/4 you must be a losing player.