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tassie
12-23-2005, 06:12 PM
River bet?

player: 14/6.1.5


Cryptologic 2.00/4.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>


Final Pot: 8.75 BB.
12-23-2005, 06:14 PM
Yes
Vote4Pedro
12-23-2005, 06:15 PM
Easy value bet
GTSamIAm
12-23-2005, 06:18 PM
How often does he pay off on the river? His play looks like AT or maybe JJ. He could have a flush draw that he'll fold, though. That should push you off of betting. If he had KK or AA, you'd be the first to know. Since you're heads-up, he's paying you off with hands you probably beat, so I say go ahead and bet.
Eeegah
12-23-2005, 07:16 PM
^^^^^^^ He ain't folding a flush draw seeing as he'd have just, you know, made his flush.

Well let's go to the chalkboard:

Pays us off (+1 BB)
AT (12)
KTs (3)

Beats us (-1 BB):
JJ (6)

Waiting to c/r our ass (-2BB):
AQs AJs KQs (1 each)

So an EV for our bet would be:

[(1)(12+3) + (-1)(6) + (-2)(3)] / (12+3+6+3) = +0.125BB.

So assuming you don't trigger the rake with a bet then yes it's worth it.

I was actually leaning toward a no until I did the math /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Edit: is there a chance he could have openraised with 98s? I think I'd fold it but it's hard to say what others would do.
12-23-2005, 08:13 PM
eeegah, if we feel comfortable folding to a raise, wouldn't those crushing c/r's count as -1BB? Also, we may need to factor in the possibility that he may not call with a worse hand such as AT. This would reduce our EV. Also, how does he beat us with JJ? I think I see JTs opening like this and playing this aggro on the flop. Overall, I think this is thinner than most think. What is a TAG villain calling us down with?
Eeegah
12-23-2005, 08:15 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Also, how does he beat us with JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, whoops
tassie
12-23-2005, 08:44 PM
IC. Thanks for that. I have been relying on my intuition up until now. That Maths will come in very handy

One more question. Arn't there more comninations he would raise with preflop first in that would give him his flush? KJ or A10 spades for example. I know his PFR is only 6% and I am not after a long thread on preflop starting hands first in from MP2 but just two more spade raising hands means a river bet is -EV. Or am I working this out incorrectly.

He had J10 clubs BTW.
tassie
12-23-2005, 08:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I think I see JTs opening like this

[/ QUOTE ]

Picked it like a nose
12-23-2005, 09:08 PM
very easy value bet
12-23-2005, 09:12 PM
:grunch:

Well, it kinda depends on what MP2 does first - if he bets this out, I fold, as AK/AQ of spades fits perfectly with the way he's played this one up until now.

If he checks, by all means check behind.
NobodysFreak
12-23-2005, 09:36 PM
Grunching...

Bet, please.
Fryguy
12-23-2005, 10:03 PM
Bet, and make the easiest river fold ever when he raises you /images/graemlins/smile.gif