Laying the smackdown on a nut peddler

[ajmargarine]

UTG+2 is something like 7/1 after 150 hands. I'm think he's nut peddling and is not just in a cold run of cards. I honestly can't remember him playing a single hand. I highly doubt he's raising a Tx hand from this early of a position, so given the action this is probably JJ-AA.

HU, this is probably a no-brainer raise. But, with SB the LAG still in the hand, does that complicate things enough to just fold this? Comments welcome.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)

UTG+1 ($98)
UTG+2 ($110.45)
MP1 ($174.45)
MP2 ($62.15)
MP3 ($80.20)
Hero ($147.80)
Button ($171.20)
SB ($154.40)
BB ($91.70)
UTG ($98.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $4, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) calls $3.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($13) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20...</font>

Basically, you are figuring that since hes so tight there is no way he has a ten in that spot. Which is probably correct. However, just because he has stats like that doesn't mean he can lay down a hand.

Like you said, he probably has a AA-JJ, but how do we know he can lay AA down on that board?

I understand your thinking, but I choose to let the peddlers peddle and when I get the opportunity hang my nuts in there face.

It's worth a shot. Nut peddlers get nervous when there's an obvious better hand on board. He'll know that people can call a raise preflop with a JTs or T9s. I think it's a good play.

[ajmargarine]

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However, just because he has stats like that doesn't mean he can lay down a hand.

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Well, this guy was multi-tabling. And the 150 hands were spread over this and another session. So I figured, let's find out now what he'll do in this spot. If I'm going to be facing him over the coming months, I want to know what he's made of.

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However, just because he has stats like that doesn't mean he can lay down a hand.

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Well, this guy was multi-tabling. And the 150 hands were spread over this and another session. So I figured, let's find out now what he'll do in this spot. If I'm going to be facing him over the coming months, I want to know what he's made of.

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Fair enough, I didn't say I thought the play was bad, in fact, I am not sure it matters much either way in this spot.

How come i never see you playing?


edit to say: I have just found that at 100NL (thats what were talking about here right) making plays, just isn't profitable. Even against the "regulars that play well"--which are basically nut peddlers.

[soah]

I would fold preflop.

The information you want to pick up here can be learned sooner or later just by watching him play hands against others.

[ajmargarine]

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How come i never see you playing?


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Well I do try to avoid the good players. So I guess I have no clue why we haven't met up. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[ajmargarine]

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I would fold preflop.


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I was wondering if anyone was going to recommend this.

[poboy]

Reraise pf and then decide what to do from there. If he just calls he probably has AK as well(maybe JJ/QQ) and the pot is yours for the taking. If he reraises you can obviously muck as this will always be QQ+. JMO

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UTG+2 is something like 7/1 after 150 hands.

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But what are his wtsd/w$sd?

[Snarf]

[ QUOTE ]
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However, just because he has stats like that doesn't mean he can lay down a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, this guy was multi-tabling. And the 150 hands were spread over this and another session. So I figured, let's find out now what he'll do in this spot. If I'm going to be facing him over the coming months, I want to know what he's made of.

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For this reason I like your play. Its more of an investment play than a bluff.

NH sir.

I would like to see him react to a raise on the flop before I tried this move here. I think it is likely he has an overpair given his pfr% (aa-jj like you said). He might fold it down, but he might put you on a pocket pair and call. If utg+2 thinks you are aggressive he might think you are capable of putting in a raise with 33-88 on this flop because it is still only losing to a larger pocket pair (&amp;22) or a Ten just like JJ-KK plus you get folding equity.
Of course the lag might be laying in the weeds with a 10 like you suggested. I kind of like this type of play here with 3 because the sb is likely to not have a hand, but it makes the bet look stronger in a 3 handed pot with the sb yet to play.

Any chance your continuing this on the turn if you get a call? I don't think I would but just curious.

[ajmargarine]

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Any chance your continuing this on the turn if you get a call? I don't think I would but just curious.

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Ummmm. I could see myself firing $45 on the turn. I mean, that's what I would do if I had a Ten right? I could also see myself saying, 'oh well, I tried' and give it up. So, not sure. (And you're right about the SB. Having him still in the hand increases the riskiness of the move, but it also adds to the strength of the move)

Results: SB folded quickly, Rock types "ugh" in the chatbox and then asks if I really have a ten. Like an idiot, I responded, which he should have been able to see thru, but luckily he didn't and he folded. He said he had AA and I believe him...He was pretty pained about laying it down. I suppose when you only PFR 2 out of 150 hands, you'd like to win both of them. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[teamdonkey]

so you showed him your hand right?

i don't like your reasoning here AJ, if for no other reason than there are a ton of $1NL tables at Party and this guy plays 7% of his hands... the information you gain here will probably be of no use to you ever again.

That being said, yes, fold preflop. A person is dealt AA 0.45% of the time and KK 0.45% of the time. If he's raising 1% of his hands you should be dropping AK like a rock.

[Mathemagician]

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That being said, yes, fold preflop. A person is dealt AA 0.45% of the time and KK 0.45% of the time. If he's raising 1% of his hands you should be dropping AK like a rock.

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But you do call with any two non-AK cards, right?

M

[teamdonkey]

after watching this hand, no, i call only with pocket pairs.

[Maulik]

Why bother putitng any money in if you hit your Ace or King you could be drawing dead as it is.

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I would fold preflop.

The information you want to pick up here can be learned sooner or later just by watching him play hands against others.

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