Top set--No bet

[ajmargarine]

I like the maxim: 'no set, no bet' when it comes to smallish pp's. Here, I must've got confused and thought it was 'top set, no bet'. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

No reads. The plan was for it to check to the PFR, and then I would c/r big (good?). When MP1 bet, I lost my nerve for the c/r. Comments on all streets appreciated.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed)

Button ($175.10)
SB ($111.70)
BB ($169)
Hero ($100)
UTG+1 ($134.30)
MP1 ($130)
MP2 ($106.70)
CO ($100.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $4, MP1 calls $4.

Flop: ($16.50) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $15</font>, Button calls $15, Hero calls $15.

Turn: ($61.50) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks, Button checks.

River: ($61.50) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: $61.50

[beavens]

didnt feel like raising the flop to see if they flopped the flush?

4 diamonds out there is nasty, but I don't know why they would check through on the turn and river...

[ajmargarine]

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didnt feel like raising the flop to see if they flopped the flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I would prefer to boat up and take it from there. /images/graemlins/wink.gif So you would c/r in this spot? How much would you make it to go?

How come nobody is advocating leading this flop? If he flopped flush, lucky him-- i will make quads or a boat by the river anyway. I am leading this flop and three betting all in if raised.

I don't like the check raise. What if he just calls?

[beavens]

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[ QUOTE ]
didnt feel like raising the flop to see if they flopped the flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I would prefer to boat up and take it from there. /images/graemlins/wink.gif So you would c/r in this spot? How much would you make it to go?

[/ QUOTE ]

i would be leading this flop for PSB, not c-r'ing.

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didnt feel like raising the flop to see if they flopped the flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I would prefer to boat up and take it from there. /images/graemlins/wink.gif So you would c/r in this spot? How much would you make it to go?

[/ QUOTE ]

i would be leading this flop for PSB, not c-r'ing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Beavens-

What is your plan if he raises your flop bet?

[Morrek]

I'd pot flop and then go from there, preferebly not put much more money in the pot without improving.

[beavens]

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[ QUOTE ]
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didnt feel like raising the flop to see if they flopped the flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I would prefer to boat up and take it from there. /images/graemlins/wink.gif So you would c/r in this spot? How much would you make it to go?

[/ QUOTE ]

i would be leading this flop for PSB, not c-r'ing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Beavens-

What is your plan if he raises your flop bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

depends on the raise.. part of me would want to lay it down because he has the flush, part of me would want to push because he's more than likely just drawing to the flush.

i think it'd be a push or fold situation, calling doesnt seem like an option.

optimisticaly i would quad up on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd pot flop and then go from there, preferebly not put much more money in the pot without improving.

[/ QUOTE ]

What happens if:

Villain min raises flop.

Villain makes a pot size raise.

Villain just calls.

[Morrek]

I would call if I got (implied) odds to fill up

Just call and fold turn unimproved? Don't you think someone in position will raise this flop with AdAx or KdKx?

[Morrek]

Well, it does depend alot on the player, and how much we have behind us(and how likely he is to pay off with a made flush on paired board). I do prefer to not go allin on the flop though, atleast without a good read. I might bet turn if there's enough room to fold to an allin, or check/call if he's usually beting weak.

[Morrek]

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I'd pot flop and then go from there, preferebly not put much more money in the pot without improving.

[/ QUOTE ]

What happens if:

Villain min raises flop.

Villain makes a pot size raise.

Villain just calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain minraise, I call.
Potsized raise I think it's push or fold, depends on feel/read but I do both with a little err on the fold side probably against an unknown.
Villain calls, I bet turn regardless of what falls, however if a diamond falls and he raises I'll probably fold, unless he gives me odds.

I would think we lead flop for 3/4 to PSB and I'd probably push over the top of any raise, especially one by the button who could be on an overpair with a diamond. This could also put a sqeeze play on MP who may be drawing to a 4th diamond and might fold under pressure.

I just don't think I could fold on this flop to a raise. Especially since we can stack someone if we boat up.

c/r seems bad here. I don't think we gain any information or folding equity by it. If the button is playing AA or KK with a diamond I think he calls the push thinking he's either ahead or has enough outs.

[ajmargarine]

I would like to hear more about c/r vs. leading PSB here. I've been thinking about this and haven't really wrapped my head around it yet. I think the chances of me being raised are close to zero if I lead. I am happy to get it in on the flop. I think a c/r does have more FE than you guys are giving credit for. Still pondering.

[Morrek]

[ QUOTE ]
I would like to hear more about c/r vs. leading PSB here. I've been thinking about this and haven't really wrapped my head around it yet. I think the chances of me being raised are close to zero if I lead. I am happy to get it in on the flop. I think a c/r does have more FE than you guys are giving credit for. Still pondering.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah it probably has some FE, but it's more likely to be called when you're behind and win small pot when you're ahead. So I like to play these kinds of hands a little more safe and just bet out.

[mulebennett]

i'm no expert but i've always thought that if you lead the flop with a made set, especially on a draw-heavy board, it makes your decisions a lot easier for you. on this board i definitely come out firing, and if i get raised, push the flop. obviously this is read-dependent, but i think fancy play is dangerous on a three-flush flop.

It seems that this is a quantitative question. i've wondered about it before, so I did the math for the flop... I hope.

p(specific two suited, when 3 of same are on the flop) =0.06 per person
p(no flush per person) = 0.9538
opponents = 7
p(no flush at table)= 0.72 (this is a suprise to me)

EV

You make full/quads: 0.22 x 1 (fraction you win)
You are unimproved: 0.78 x 0.37 (fraction you win when your opponent doesn't have, or make, a flush; =1-(0.28 (has flush) + 0.35 (makes flush)

EV = 0.51

So, given overlay the flop must be played. I have no idea how often villian folds to a push here. Maybe someone who is mathy can take this further to argue an optimal play?