3-way bubble decision - using ICM

From memory PR $11 Turbo.

BB = 400

Hero has AJo

UTG 1500
Button 3500
SB Hero 4500
BB big stack 5500

UTG raises all in
Button folds
Hero calls
Big stack raises all in

Hero?


I folded, and thought I'd dodged a bullet, but later thought
this might be a mistake.

I thought I'd try ICM before posting this. Please correct my approach if I'm misusing this.

stacks <font color="red">ss</font> button <font color="green">hero</font> <font color="blue">BS</font> Hero equity
start <font color="red">1500</font> 3500 <font color="green">4500</font> <font color="blue">5500</font> .2927
Hero folds, ss loses
<font color="red">0</font> 3500 <font color="green">3000</font> <font color="blue">8500</font> .2922
Hero folds, ss wins
<font color="red">4500</font> 3500 <font color="green">3000</font> <font color="blue">4000</font> .2161
Hero calls, ss wins, bs beats hero
<font color="red">4500</font> 3500 <font color="green">0</font> <font color="blue">7000</font> 0
Hero calls, ss wins, hero beats bs
<font color="red">0</font> 3500 <font color="green">10500</font> <font color="blue">1000</font> .4363
Hero calls, ss loses, bs beats hero
<font color="red">0</font> 3500 <font color="green">0</font> <font color="blue">11500</font> $20

So, it seems both folds are worse, and the only thing bad about calling is the possibility I lose to bs, but not to ss, (how do I figure how likely that is? Is it just routinely "rare"?). What's the correct way to express the equity of going out in third?

Or, should I have pushed instead of calling so I don't have to bother about such thinking. My call was assuming BS would come along and we'd check it down to kill shorty (which was how folks had been playing to now).
I'm figuring the ss is pushing any A, any K, any pair. I'm figuring BS would only re-raise with AA, KK, QQ, AK. possibly AQ, JJ, AJs.
I don't know how to use those reads in this case, however.

Is this the right way to use ICM? Is it any clearer I should call, or is it unclear?
Is there an easier way to post a table like this that's clearer to read?

Thanks!

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
From memory PR $11 Turbo.So, it seems both folds are worse, and the only thing bad about calling is the possibility I lose to bs, but not to ss, (how do I figure how likely that is? Is it just routinely "rare"?). What's the correct way to express the equity of going out in third?Or, should I have pushed instead of calling so I don't have to bother about such thinking. My call was assuming BS would come along and we'd check it down to kill shorty (which was how folks had been playing to now).I'm figuring the ss is pushing any A, any K, any pair. I'm figuring BS would only re-raise with AA, KK, QQ, AK. possibly AQ, JJ, AJs. I don't know how to use those reads in this case, however.Is this the right way to use ICM? Is it any clearer I should call, or is it unclear?Is there an easier way to post a table like this that's clearer to read?Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]I haven't checked the numbers, but it looks like you used ICM correctly. The equity of finishing 3rd is .2 or 20% of the prize pool. In order to use your reads and decide which play is the best you need to use something like pokerstove or SNG Powertools and input your villians hand ranges. If you use pokerstove you will find out how likely each hand is to win, then multiply each of the equities above by their chance of happening and see where you have the biggest result.I would push preflop.I only try and invite someone along for a checkdown when I am in a worse chip position than you are here.In deciding to push preflop it is important to note that you have a lot of FE on big stack.

[splashpot]

You're forgetting about putting your opponents on ranges. And then figuring out the % you win based on those ranges. Once you know those percentages, you need to multiply the percentages by your equity values. Hope that is clear.

Okay, so I whipped out PokerStove.
(does it always take this long to run, or does 3-way run a long time, or is the the wide ranges that make it take a while? oops, I see I did "all" instead of Monte Carlo, that's likely the culprit)

Player 1 is on a pretty loose range, any A, any pair, any paint 8 &amp; up and any K or Q suited 5 &amp; up. (40.3%)

Then I put player 2 on my hand, AJo

Then I put player 3 (re-raising) on pairs down to JJ, AK, AQ and AJs (4.5%)

What is the difference between "equity" and "win%" in pokerstove?

So roughly, I have a 20% chance, ss has 25% and big stack has 50%

when hero folds:
ss losing .2922* (2/3 = .1948
ss winning .2161/3 = .072

I'm stuck on the hero calls conditions. When someone beats one, and loses to another, what from the above 'win%' do I use? Missing something here.

Thanks for the help. Still tinkering with this.