Oh Yea? Call this.........

[slavic]

Muckleshoot 4/8 9 handed started as a weak tight game, more rocks than a cement company, but eventually turned into a thing of beauty.

UTG with Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I limp, 7 limp behind me.

Flop(8sb) A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Checks to the button(decent) who bets, I slide one off, Loose weak EP player calls, CO(solid) calls.

Turn(6bb): 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I check, EP bets, CO raises, Button 3 bets

Your Move?

[jujujaja34]

Slavic,

I'm inclined to fold in this spot. Depending on the action after you, you're probably getting between 5.33-1 and 6-1 on you're call.

OK, someone has the nut straight and someone has at least two pair. I'm assuming you're down to 9 outs for your flush and probably splitting with a King hitting the board.

Bottom line: I'm thinking that I'm just barely getting odds to call here and if the board pairs on the river I could be in trouble. Combine this with a possible 4-bet on the turn and I'm folding.

[rayrns]

You'll only be getting 4:1 if you call. You can't count on the Kd or Td as outs, so you probably only have 7 outs or needing 6:1 odds. I think I'm folding here.

[Ed Miller]

You'll only be getting 4:1 if you call. You can't count on the Kd or Td as outs, so you probably only have 7 outs or needing 6:1 odds. I think I'm folding here.

Uh... any K gives him the nuts, and the K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif gives him the nut flush, so I think I'd go ahead and count that one as an out. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif This is an easy call.

[Ed Miller]

I've noticed a small trend recently of, "Should I fold my big draw?" posts. Here's the answer. Ready? The answer is no. You should not fold. I don't care what the situation is, you should not fold. I don't care if it's 8 bets to you on the turn and if you lose this pot, you won't have enough to buy beer for the trip home. You still do not fold. In this example, our hero has four cards that give him the nuts (admittedly, the button is likely to have KJ), seven more that almost certainly make him the winner, and one (the T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif) that is only quite likely to make him the winner. Folding is sheer madness...

Situations where it's correct to throw away a decent draw (flush or straight draw) in limit poker are very few and far between. And when it is correct to throw the draw away, it is only very marginally so (such that, if you call, you lose very little). So don't worry about it... just put the damn chips in and pray.

This is like the "what do I do with the nuts?" posts. This is not where the money is won and lost in limit holdem (well, I take that back... if you routinely make these folds then this is where the money is lost). Stop wasting brain cycles on this crap.

[lil']

Gotta call. Too bad it's so expensive, but you are drawing to the nut flush. I would bet if I river the nuts. Calling three cold will probably tip them off...

[Joe Tall]

Easy call.

[marbles]

Can't believe no one has berated you yet for checking in the first place. You got what you deserved (a painful decision) for not betting it.

[Vehn]

Do you think he has the best hand at this point? If not, do you think he has a decent chance of winning the pot with his bet? So why should he bet again?

[jujujaja34]

Everyone,

I seem to be in the minority here thinking folding is the best play. Most say easy call and I'm just looking for the reason why. I see it as a very close call at best considering the pot odds and an apparent lack of any implied odds.

Thanks for the insight...

jujujaja34

[Homer]

Worst case scenario as far as pot odds go is that you call the turn, EP folds, CO caps and you and button call. If this happens, you'll be getting 15:4 or 3.75:1 on the call. In practice, you might get better odds since EP may call and it may not be capped (if this happens you'll be getting 15:3 or 5:1 odds).

Assuming that someone already has a straight, you have 3 K outs to a chop (so essentially that's 1.5 outs) and maybe 8.5 flush outs to a win (if the Td is good half the time). So anyway, you have around 10 outs out of 46 unseen cards, so you're 3.6:1 against getting there on the river. Since at worst you'll be getting 3.75:1 on the call (and could be getting up to 5:1) and will have some additional help from implied odds when you get there, you have a call.

In practice, I would think "I have a big ass draw -- 12 outs if all are clean, which means I'm around 3:1 to get there. Even if EP folds and CO caps I'll be getting a good price, so I'm calling."

-- Homer

[slavic]

I was sitting there thinking that my drawing odds had just become marginal, but with at least 13 outs I'm no worse than fair odds on the call.

I grabbed 2 stacks, pushed them over the commitment line, and made a call. EP called (that suprised me), CO calls to close the action.

River(18BB) K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I bet out, EP calls, CO glares as she mucks, Button says he's paying me off.

What can I say the nuts are good.

EP had K9o and showed it, the button and the CO both had the broadway straight, on the river or so they said.

[bernie]

are you thinking of folding?

this is an easy call. one reaon i may not jack it here with a str8flush draw is that some of your outs may be gone and you may be splitting the pot if the str8 hits. but i may still raise it. im guessing with passive rocks on the table, theyre not semi bluffing here. so it wouldnt suprise me if someone had KJ given the action. meaning 3 of your outs are useless.

i'm seeing the river though

b

[bernie]

because you easily have the odds to call with the flush. and the chances are very high that your flush will be good if it hits. if you fold in these situations you will be losing lots of chips. youre almost 4-1 on your flush alone. along with your possible str8 or pot split potential, youre about even money against the opponents at this point. in some cases, you could be in +EV against the right opponents. youre not losing any money calling here, and sometimes youre making money with every bet they put in.

though in this hand, it looks much more like even money.

easy call. and yes, id even call a baby flush at this point.

b

[bernie]

he needs more players in this pot to really jam this on the turn. especially when the players arent the type to be semibluffing themselves. youre behind here. which, as i said above, you need more players to jam it for +EV.

b

[bernie]

i cant believe how many responses are saying to fold this. actually, i cant believe any responses are saying this.

this is an EASY CALL people!!!

if you really think youre making a strong case for folding, please, oh PLEASE!!! get in my game.

im sure MK will fully agree.

oh, and have a nice day

b

[slavic]

bernie

Thanks for posting this, because the reason I posted the hand was not that I had any concern about making the call, I was stuck with should I raise? CO and Button have to have at least a redraw to the broadway straight, they will call if I cap, but EP is the wild card. He may call two cold but will he call three? I'm sure I'm the only broadway draw who is free wheeling to the flush, and if I'm confident EP calls I should cap it. I let it pass and after EP called the two cold I was praying that the CO capped it.

[Ed Miller]

Ok, dude. There are 6 bets in the pot before the turn. You have 3 opponents. Let's assume the initial bettor folds and the initial raiser calls. That means you are getting 13-3 (or a little better than 4-1) on your call. You can expect to get at least one and probably two bets on the river when you get there. You have 9 outs to a flush (which will almost certainly give you the whole pot) and 3 more outs to some kind of chop. Even if you didn't have the chopping outs, you call here for just the flush (you are getting better than the 4-1 needed just from the pot, and you will get an extra couple of bets on the river). The fact that you have extra outs to money makes this a significant overlay.

Is that clear?

[Ed Miller]

Nah.. I don't think I would 4-bet. I think you want EP to call.. because you are probably chopping already with at least the CO if a non-diamond K comes, so if EP has a stiff Jack, it's not as attractive to push him out.

[MD_]

The call is not "expensive" at all. He's getting enough odds from the players in the pot that he should cap it if he knew that everybody with at least one bet in on this round would call. His fear about capping is that the initial bettor would fold, hence the call.

-MD

[lil']

I just meant it makes players uncomfortable sometimes to call bets cold like that. Generally you like to fold or raise.

[bernie]

when you know your likely behind and have a draw, it's a matter of how many opponents are in compared to your likely odds of hitting your hand. opponents to you compared to youre odds of hitting. and remember to discount some of the outs you may not have. (they have to be in with something to withstand all the pressure being put on, or have something to be jamming with you) if you have more opponents than youre odds of hitting, then betting/raising is +EV. i dont see that being the case here, so id prefer seeing the river by calling. i wouldnt mind them only calling the 3 bet at this point. im figuring im, at best, even money for every bet going in on this betting round. meaning, youre losing value a little with every extra bet you put in here. not alot, but enough that i dont care to see more action on this betting round.

b

[elysium]

hi slav
i'll tell you slav, it's close. the problem here though is the dang Kxs that thinks trip Ks will win even if he misses his nut flush draw. you want a draw to the nuts, and you have it, but it's likely going to be a split pot. the split pot makes this a fold.

[elysium]

hi major
the way the betting appears, there is at least one or two other flush draws out there, considering the fact that things lit up when the second diamond hit. and what flush draw is there that could bet on that board with expectation to win if indeed the flush completed? not a ten high that's for sure. it just appears as though only specifically K high could bet here. but i'm not sure. i failed to take into consideration that the diamond flush draw may assume a baby type flush would be good because it would necessarily be a runner, runner out of the blue. i don't know. but you were right. i will work on this. basically the question is when the turn produces a flush draw, does that mean that a raise by the likely draw is being made with a non-high hand? could a baby flush be raising assuming that no other flush draw to his flush draw is out there since it was introduced on the turn? i guess so. very possible and in that case it would be wrong to fold.

[bernie]

at muckleshoot, it isnt often that these players will jam a draw on the turn. in fact, it's rare. it does happen, but i doubt it in this case...

they prefer to bet 'made' hands

on top of that, anyone else getting the flush on the river will call a bet on the river also. how many barf bags would you need if you folded this and a baby flush took this pot down?

b

b

[slavic]

The clientel will jam the flop, but check call all the larger streets even with the stone cold nuts.


Bernie were you up there tonight? I missed you if you were.

[rayrns]

With the betting that took place I was putting the Kd in someones hand already. That is why I questioned it being counted as an out. Guess those monsters got me. Thanks for helping me out.

[Ed Miller]

You should also notice from the results that the T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif was a clean out as well (as it usually will be).

[bernie]

yep...some might jame the flop. but once the bigger streets come around....

yep i was only up there a little bit. til about 8p. i'll be up there today, (sunday) for a bit. im trying to get my hours for the freeroll tourney...

b