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View Full Version : ($22)99 on bubble, raiser has been aggressive


1C5
12-23-2005, 12:28 AM
Your play?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t2825)
Hero (t1580)
UTG (t1345)
Button (t2250)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t475</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?

tigerite
12-23-2005, 06:57 AM
Stop and go, I think. I don't think he's folding if you push, anyway.

12-23-2005, 07:04 AM
I am pushing this. Especially if button has been aggresive like you say. In this spot, I need to get some chips at some point and how much better than this hand can I reasonably expect.
The only thing I dont want to see here is a higher PP...anything else I dont really mind seeing.

SNGPT says it is a fold however..EV -$0.84 vs a range of:

22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs

tigerite
12-23-2005, 07:05 AM
SNGPT can't really do this very well, as you have to know both his raising range and his calling of a re-raise range. I guesstimate he would fold 25-33% of hands here, but that might be way off. For those calcs you need to do ICM by hand. It works out at his original raising range being about top 20% and calling range about top 15%. It's just a little tight for me to push that.

Oh yeah, and you would hate to see two overcards, you should be avoiding coinflips on the bubble especially with 10BB. This is obvious stuff, honestly.

cferejohn
12-23-2005, 09:05 AM
I push. Even without that read I don't think it's close, and with that read it's umm, even less close. Really I'd need a pretty damned good read to *not* push here. I *suppose* you could stopngo, but I think this hand is really too good for that. I might try it with a lower pair...

cferejohn
12-23-2005, 09:06 AM
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Stop and go, I think. I don't think he's folding if you push, anyway.

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I'm not sure you want him to fold. With an aggressive player, I expect to have him drawing to 2 or 3 outs here quite a lot.

chipolino
12-23-2005, 09:59 PM
Push for sure, what you don't wanna do is let hands like QJ and JT see a flop that might otherwise have folded if you pushed. At this stage this is hand worth dying with, so why not apply the pressure right away. You're gonna be ahead here more often than not.

12-23-2005, 10:06 PM
Haven't read replies. Push

Snarf
12-23-2005, 10:08 PM
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Stop and go, I think. I don't think he's folding if you push, anyway.

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I'm not sure you want him to fold. With an aggressive player, I expect to have him drawing to 2 or 3 outs here quite a lot.

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It depends on the player I guess. I actually agree with both of you depending on the situation.

ZeroPointMachine
12-23-2005, 10:16 PM
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SNGPT can't really do this very well, as you have to know both his raising range and his calling of a re-raise range. I guesstimate he would fold 25-33% of hands here, but that might be way off. For those calcs you need to do ICM by hand. It works out at his original raising range being about top 20% and calling range about top 15%. It's just a little tight for me to push that.

Oh yeah, and you would hate to see two overcards, you should be avoiding coinflips on the bubble especially with 10BB. This is obvious stuff, honestly.

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Man, you are so right so often, but sometimes you are way off and this tone doesn't suit you.

This is EV neutral if button NEVER folds to your push. He will fold a significant portion of hands he raises here. This is a clear push.

curtains
12-23-2005, 10:25 PM
IMO this is a clear push, you should have plenty of folding equity here. Its another 1100 for him to call.....which is the large majority of his stack. Also your hand is extremely good...I dont like the stop and go here at all.

curtains
12-23-2005, 10:26 PM
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Stop and go, I think. I don't think he's folding if you push, anyway.

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I'm not sure you want him to fold. With an aggressive player, I expect to have him drawing to 2 or 3 outs here quite a lot.

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Cmon, obviously you want him to fold, this is a sit and go and its on the bubble and there is already about 700 chips in the pot, which is half your stack. If you even dream of wanting your opponent to call you, then you probably have quite a few holes in your overall approach.

12-23-2005, 10:34 PM
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Haven't read replies. Push

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