true count

[edc]

Many black jack books say to convert the running count to true count divide by the remaining decks. This appears to be averaging the high cards(or low) over the remaining decks. In a 6 deck shoe a count of plus five in the first deck would convert to a plus one. However; the five high cards may be in the first deck or second, etc. Have there been any studies showing that the true count computed as an average is the best method or have other ways been tried?

[cardcounter0]

Let's take your +5 count scenario after 1 deck dealt of a 6 deck shoe. That means there is 260 cards left with 5 extra high cards. Normally there are 100 high cards per 5 decks, this particular 5 deck chunk of cards has 105 high cards in it. What can we assume about the specific location of these five extra cards? Nothing.

Simulate a 5 deck shoe. Throw 160 black marbles in a bottle, and 100 white marbles in a bottle. The black marbles will represent a low or neutral card, and the black marbles a high card.

Start drawing out marbles. In the long run you will notice about 5 black marbles being drawn per 13 draws.

Now simulate a +5 count. Throw 155 black marbles in a bottle and 105 white marbles. Now in the long run you will notice about 5.25 marbles being drawn per 13 draws.

Can you say anything about when this extra .25 black marble will occur? The very next series of 13 draws, after 26 marbles have been drawn? 50 draws later? The next draw? No. You only know that in the long run, you should get 1 extra black marble than you normally would every 52 draws (some series of 52 draws no extra, some series of 52 draws 2 or 3 extra, etc., but in the long run, it evens out to 1 black marble extra per 52 draws).

The same with a randomly shuffled 5 deck shoe of cards with a +5 count. When will the high card come? Who knows? Some series of 52 dealt cards will have 2 or 3 extra high cards, some will have none. All you can assume is that *1* extra high card will appear per 52 dealt cards in the long run (a +1 true count).

[jba]

wow. nice explanation.

[edc]

Good explanation. Does the fact that five excess low cards have come out alter your expectation of an average distribution of the high cards? If the excess of high cards come in the first two decks; the betting opportunities will be missed.

[edfurlong]

I think you are assuming that the decks are shuffled individualy, the stacked one on top of another. I don't play blackjack, but I assume this is not the case.

[cardcounter0]

If the excess of high cards come out in the first two decks, then yes, you have missed your betting opportunities. The rest of the shoe is now negative. It is probably best to go to another table and start with a new shoe, or wait for a shuffle, instead of continuing to play.

And sometimes the big bluffer at the table really does have pocket aces.
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