Mucking trips on the turn???

[GuyOnTilt]

Playing 6/12 9-handed. Table is very loose/passive except for BB in this hand who is very aggressive on all streets if he's never slowed down.

I'm dealt Q /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif in MP. UTG limps, folds to MP1 who limps, I limp in. Folds to CO limper, Button folds, SB completes, BB knuckles. 6 to the flop for 6 SB's.

Flop comes: Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, BB bets, folds to me and I raise. CO calls, SB folds, BB 3-bets. I call and CO calls. 3 to the turn for 15 SB's.

Turn comes: Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif[Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif]

BB bets out, I raise, CO 3-bets, and BB caps. I think and finally muck.

Here's what I was thinking: I have to be behind, and I muck figuring that I'm drawing to 3 clean outs, maybe 4 if they both flopped sets. And there's always the off-chance one has a set, and the other has AQ, which would give me 3 more outs, but that's so unlikely I didn't factor it into my decision. I can't beat both of them without improving, and even getting 17:2 I still don't have the odds to suck out, even with the 4 or 6 extra bets I'd make on the river if I did improve, and knowing that if I call the turn, I must call the river which could be 2 or 3 more bets.

It's a tough lay-down, and I know a lot of people would berate me for laying down that hand with that board on the turn, but I think it's the right move. Obviously a lot of it is opponent-oriented, but against typical opposition, I think it's +EV.

...And now is about the time you all yell at me.

[RockLobster]

Wow, that's some serious discipline. I don't think I'm capable of that laydown, but I think your reads are sound and it was probably the right thing to do. There's nothing worse than getting trapped on the expensive streets.

Nicely done.

[Bob T.]

When I saw the title, I thought, 'this can't possibly be right' but when I read your post, I have to agree, you don't have the odds to continue,unless you think that there is some chance that you are ahead, and I think that the chance of that is small enough that mucking here is correct. Nice play.

[SoCalPat]

Heads up, of course, folding is disastrous. But this is a great example of how a set is much more powerful than trips.

In a multiway pot, someone has to have some of the outs you're counting on. Those outs aren't even clean ... they're probably non-existant, because your opponents are holding them.

My guess is that the BB is holding Q8 or Q6 (even though you say he's aggressive, he's beyond that here -- he obviously has a hand), and that the CO has 88. Let's say the BB has Q6. If one of the two remaining 6s fall, you chop. If the case 8 falls to give you a boat, the CO has quads.

All you have, as you mentioned, are three clean outs -- the three jacks. There are 17 BBs in the pot when it's capped back to you, and that's not including any implied odds on the river (because it will be capped at the river, unless someone is really jamming the flush draw, which I'm not seeing here) You're getting 14.3-1 (43 blanks, 3 to the nuts = 14.3-1 ... I'm not implying you can't calculate odds ... I'm doing it to spell out how I got that number, because I'm a newbie and want people to correct me if I'm wrong) to hit you're three-outer at the river. For one more bet to close the betting, I'd call and see the river. But if the J doesn't fall, I'm probably not even calling a bet, seeing as how you're out of position.

[MrDannimal]

I think the drawing odds are right, but with 17(.5) BBs in the pot and having to call 2 bets to see the river he's only getting 8.5:1 pot odds, no?

[SoCalPat]

Somehow, I confused closing the betting with risking the minimum amount to do so. That, obviously, is not the case as he was second to act, and with the betting capped, must call two bets to close the betting.

[JTG51]

All that I'll say is you have to be very sure of your reads to make this kind of fold.

I folded top trips with the nut flush draw on the turn once in a threeway pot when it was 2 bets to me. I was sure it was the right thing to do, but that was only because it was a home game with guys that I know really, really well. Against unknown players I doubt I could have, or should have, folded it.

[GuyOnTilt]

I'm going to have to disagree with you here. I don't think you need good reads on your opponents in this situation. Heads-up obviously I would never muck this hand, but here I was faced with one opponent who bet and raised at every chance, and another who cold-called two on the flop and 3-bet the turn. The former looks to have flopped two-pair to me, and the latter looks to have slow-played a flopped set. If my reads were correct, I was in 3rd place and a long-shot to outdraw them both. Those reads aren't based on any previous experiences with either player, but they are reads on the action.

Even if my hand-reading skills were off, I can't be ahead here. Perhaps the over-aggressive BB was pushing trip queens and I had him outkicked, but if that's the case then MP had to have flopped a set, since there are only 4 Queens in the deck. In that case, I'd be drawing to 3 outs to win the pot outright, and 3 more to chop with BB.

In either case, I didn't have the odds to call two cold on the turn, and mucking was, IMO, the right play.

[elysium]

hi guy
on the turn, if you don't know what you'll do if reraised then tend to call in these situations, don't raise.

[bernie]

then you havent played with the type of guys who will bet like idiots in these situations. or guys who will bet an overpair in this spot.

"I don't think you need good reads on your opponents in this situation."

yes, you really do. do this routinely against unknown players and youll be kicking yourself quite a bit when you see what they turn over. especially if they are very observant unknown players. if this was your first hand on a table full of unknowns, i think this is a mistake to fold this. you dont have enough player information to do this. sure, it worked out this time, but many players dont play that predictable. you have to confirm predictability, not just assume it. otherwise, you may find yourself bumped off of many hands in the later betting rounds that you should be calling/raising with.

this is far from a gimme-read situation. youre making a cookie cutter read against players who may not be playing a cookie cutter approach to the game.

b