33 - Bubble hand, late in $11 Stars Rebuy

Hello,

I feel this looks like an overly simple question, however I thought about it for a while and would like some feedback.

Down to about 26 people in Stars $11 rebuy. I havent played in about 30 hands. I am in the cutoff with 33. My table image is tight, I've shown down only top hands (AA, KK, AK, JJ). The blinds are a bit tight, but have been making moves when someone minimum raises.

I was really torn between push and fold on this hand. I didn't think a 3 bet raise was appropriate, as the theme of the table was push all in on people goin in for 2-3 BB. I pushed because I thought my table image was solid. However, is 33 big enough to push from the cutoff here?

Any thoughts? Push? Fold? Limp? Minraise?

Thanks for your input,

PN


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t12000 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

UTG (t433062)
UTG+1 (t314230)
MP1 (t101928)
MP2 (t127448)
MP3 (t471423)
Hero (t158623)
Button (t244815)
SB (t151484)
BB (t29516)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Bump /images/graemlins/smile.gif. I'm really courious what the right thing to do here is.

Tks,
PN

[betgo]

Folding is bad. You have plenty odds to push.

You could also limp or raise 2-3xBB. If people are pushing at raises, it might be better to push here and raise with big hands or steals. If you raise and are reraised, I might call.

Why have you not played a hand in 30 hands? I like to nut peddle early in these things. At this stage, the play is usually tight, so I play very aggressive.

I don't know why you call this a bubble hand. It is a ways to the final table or even second table cutoff. If there is tight bubble play, then more reason to play loose.

Yeah good point. I felt that push was right there, as I could still get away from the hand if I only raised. I hadn't played a hand in about 30, as almost all of the pots were getting raised, or raised and pushed. I had a bad run of cards and didn't get anything playable that whole time.

Results in white:
<font color="white"> sb had QQ, tough luck /images/graemlins/smile.gif </font>

[woodguy]

I see no reason to push this, your stack is plenty big to keep playing, and if you are called its a race or you are buried, but unless you run into 22 or A2 you are never is very good shape.

When I open push, I want live cards and 33 is too easily dominated.

Folding is ok too, but if you haven't been in a pot for a while its time to open raise anyhow.

I like a PF raise to 2.5BB's, and fold to a push. It turns this hand into a pure steal hand, but 33 isn't strong enough to play if re-raised.

Another line is to open limp. This goes against my normal game, but at this stage of the tourney, many players will see a monster if you open limp and play scared against you.

I hate open pushing before I'm forced to.

Regards,
Woodguy

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I see no reason to push this, your stack is plenty big to keep playing, and if you are called its a race or you are buried, but unless you run into 22 or A2 you are never is very good shape.

When I open push, I want live cards and 33 is too easily dominated.

Folding is ok too, but if you haven't been in a pot for a while its time to open raise anyhow.

I like a PF raise to 2.5BB's, and fold to a push. It turns this hand into a pure steal hand, but 33 isn't strong enough to play if re-raised.

Another line is to open limp. This goes against my normal game, but at this stage of the tourney, many players will see a monster if you open limp and play scared against you.

I hate open pushing before I'm forced to.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't care whether you have to push. The push is a good play.

You have 12xBB on CO with an ante. The chance that any of the 2 players has a pp they will call you with is not that great. Pushing is very EV+. You pick up 2.3xBB or so if no one calls. If AK calls, you pick up more than that on average.

Folding is very bad. Raising and folding to a reraise is also bad. Most of the time the reraise is overcards where you are ahead plus pot odds. If you are going to raise, raise 3xBB or more and call a reraise.

Limping or raising may be playable, but I think the push is best.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
If AK calls, you pick up more than that on average.

[/ QUOTE ]

That conviently leaves out all of the over pairs to 33 (and there's a lot of them), which have you crushed.

Pushing may be slightly EV, but just that. I will do the calculations and post them when I have time.

[ QUOTE ]
Folding is very bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

[ QUOTE ]
Raising and folding to a reraise is also bad. Most of the time the reraise is overcards where you are ahead plus pot odds. If you are going to raise, raise 3xBB or more and call a reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are a 41-59 dog against the range of AA-22 AK-A7 and KQ, so its close.

My point was that I when I get my chips in when I have 12BB's I want to try to make sure I'm leading, or at least not holding a hand which is easily dominated (like 33), and I'm not just juicing the pot so I have the odds to call off the rest of my stack. 33 doesn't lend itself to that.

Pushing isn't bad, its just not the way I prefer to play that size of stack.

Regards,
Woodguy

[betgo]

There is a 10/221 chance each of your opponent has a higher pair. With some overlap, and figuring 44 or 55 probably won't call a push, there is about a 10% chance of being called and dominated.

So 10% of the time, you have about a 20% chance at 26.3 BBs, so you win 5.3xBB for a 7.7xBB loss. 10% of 7.7 is -.77 BBs.

90% of the time, you win the blinds and antes or get called by over cards. You gain 2.3xBB if no one calls. Let's assume it is the same if you are called. It is more against AKo, less against JTs. If you are called, it is probably by AK-AJ or KQ rather than a suited connector. 90% of 2.3 is +2.07.

2.07-.77 is +1.4 BBs. That is a pretty big EV+. I don't see a strong strategic reason to avoid risk. So folding is really bad. If you were pushing from third position, it would be fairly close EVwise, so I could see folding if that is your taste. You may be able to raise or limp rather than push, but folding is bad.