Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?

Hey guys. This was my most recent tournament and on the first hand I picked up A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif in the SB. About 6 (maybe even 7) people limped so lets say there was ~120 chips in the pot when the action got to me.
I raised it to 200 total and the BB immediately went all in for his 800. Folded around to me and I called getting about 2:1 odds. He showed KK and no ace came so he won.

The question I ask is, do we call this 100% of the time? This was the first hand of the tournament so I clearly had no read on my opponent but I tried to narrow his hand range down to an estimation:

AA or KK about 40% of the time
22-QQ about 25 % of the time
AK about 25 % of the time
Any other two about 10% of the time

Are these estimations about accurate? I mean, at this level I have seen people put their whole stack in preflop on the first hand with KJo and even worse. Especially in this type of situation, where there is a lot of dead money in the pot, do people decide to become the madd bluffer.

Any advice is greatly appreciated.

[EasilyFound]

If you're getting 2-1 odds, why wouldn't you call?

[ QUOTE ]
If you're getting 2-1 odds, why wouldn't you call?

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If you are willing to coinflip the first hand of an STT, why not just play roulette instead? Less rake.

[AceRat138]

gh Bazuul.

[tjh]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're getting 2-1 odds, why wouldn't you call?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are willing to coinflip the first hand of an STT, why not just play roulette instead? Less rake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope the thinking members of the audience can figure this one out for themselves.

Suppose you have a coinflip game where you win $10 when you win and lose $5 when you lose. After a hundred "games" how much money do you have ?

First hand is crazy land. How you choose to play this hand is up to you. For those opposed to the call, how do you play this hand ??

As for gambling early. It can be nice to get some of the total idiots chips before someone else does.

Also we lose half of our tournies in the long run anyhow. So if you are going to lose it is best to do it early.

/images/graemlins/shocked.gif

I want to say insta call but i see AA-KK sOOOO often come out of this line. It's so obvious. That said, since AA-KK is shown so often, is 2-1 really a good price here? Don't get me wrong, I will usually call, but your gonna get shown AA-KK most of the time, from my observations. I'd say about 65% at the most conservative estimate. I dont know though, its seems more like 80% of the time to me.

does anyone have sufficient data to determine the amount of times you are shown AA-KK out of this line?

[tjh]

[ QUOTE ]
I want to say insta call but i see AA-KK sOOOO often come out of this line. It's so obvious. That said, since AA-KK is shown so often, is 2-1 really a good price here? Don't get me wrong, I will usually call, but your gonna get shown AA-KK most of the time, from my observations. I'd say about 65% at the most conservative estimate. I dont know though, its seems more like 80% of the time to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, are we playing at the same site ?? Do you have PokerTracker? Can you post some data to support this wild hypothesis that the players are good ??

I have hand histories of all-ins in the first level with K-4. These can not be the same players.

You remember the AA-KK and confirmation bias clouds your judgement perhaps?
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tjh

[xJMPx]

I think he's talking specifically about the limp-push line taken here by the villain. But I've seen it often enough by mid-pairs to say it's probably not AA/KK 80%.

As for this hand, I dunno...with your line I think I would go ahead and call after committing 1/4 of my stack. However, I think there could be an argument to just limping with all the preflop limps infront and play this as a drawing hand.

Very big possibility that I'm bias. That's why i edited my post to ask for the same data you are asking for. Also, let me restate that I normally call here....

Oh yeah, and many of my obsevations are also from MTT's. I think that makes a big difference and you will be shown AA-KK more often in MTT's.

[LesJ]

Just random observation here, but tonight in the 11s I saw two players all-in preflop. There hands were KQs and J5o respectively. J5o won the hand, of course, but donked off all their chips before level one was even over.
Les

[tjh]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he's talking specifically about the limp-push line taken here by the villain. But I've seen it often enough by mid-pairs to say it's probably not AA/KK 80%.



[/ QUOTE ]

I think the BB pushed so this is not a limp-push.

If UTG limps and then pushes to a raise.... I am seriously concerned. BB push ... less concerned. UTG strong hands are concerned about not getting any callers so they limp with monsters, once raised they push.

I posted some first round all-in data about a week ago. My sample was small but it did show some really low hands going allin in level one.

here they are...
I did not have all that many SNG's in my Pokertracker DB. From what I did have I grabbed the hands from all the times that players went all-in and were called by another player in level one on party.

Here are they hands. They are paired or tripled for hands that are from the same all-in event. These are what they are pushing or calling a push with in level one.


[ Ac, Ah ]
[ Ks, Qh ]

[ Ad, Ac ]
[ Qs, Jc ]

[ 9s, 9c ]
[ 3s, 3c ]

[ Kc, Ks ]
[ 9s, 9c ]

[ Ad, Qh ]
[ 9s, 9c ]

[ Jc, 8c ]
[ 7d, 7c ]

[ Ks, Ts ]
[ Tc, Ad ]

[ Th, Td ]
[ Qs, Ad ]

[ As, Qs ]
[ 8c, 8h ]

[ Qs, Qd ]
[ Th, Ts ]

[ Kc, Jh ]
[ 7c, 7s ]

[ Ks, Ac ]
[ 9s, 9d ]

[ 6h, 6d ]
[ Ah, Ad ]

[ Qd, Kh ]
[ Kc, Ks ]
[ As, Ah ]

[ Jc, Jh ]
[ Kh, Ac ]

[ Ad, As ]
[ Ks, 4d ]

[ Qd, Qs ]
[ Td, Ad ]
[ Jh, Js ]

[ Jh, Ks ]
[ 7d, 7h ]
[ Jc, As ]

Looks like a coinflip more often than KK or AA.

I would bet that first hand stats are even crazier than level one in general.

First level deserves some special consideration, they are crazy then.
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tjh

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the BB pushed so this is not a limp-push.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, I was mistaken. Makes it easier as you say, now you'll see a much larger range of hands then when someone limps-pushes.

It is an insta push. Double up or fire up a new one. If you lose it was an easy $4.

[Mr_J]

No it isn't. Taking gambles early means more early bustouts, which can raise your hourly rate. Continuous play means more per hour, sets mean less tables running = better decisions.

I play the 11s, but I call, I see so many mid/low pairs, and crap like AJ, doing this that I don't hesitate to call this.

Will

[RobGW]

[ QUOTE ]
The question I ask is, do we call this 100% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. You are getting 2:1 odds with AKs. You'll win far more often that that. Folding this is clearly -EV especially in the $22 where BB could be pushing any decent hand. He'd have to show me AA or KK before I folded this. Besides, you want to fold here and be essentially starting the tourney with $600?

Complete in the SB and play for flush value.

[caretaker1]

In my experience, in the face of this large size of reraise and the fact that you have an A and K in your hand makes it a lot less likely than 40% that villain has KK or AA. That said, I'd pop this will a smaller raise, maybe 100-120. This will still shake loose some players, however it allows you to more easily get away from a situation like this. Otherwise, if you want to raise so much that you would feel you'd have to call any re-raise due to pot odds anyway, why not just pop it all-in here and give yourself the best chance to snag the 120 without a fight?

$.02

[Nick M]

all i know is I never raise from the blinds facing that many limpers with anything other than AA KK or QQ.

[mlagoo]

not sure about your initial raise, i probably make it like 120-150 there, but once BB pushes, I'm calling. to whoever talked [censored] above about not taking a coinflip -- even if this was a coinflip, taking a coinflip while being laid very good odds is playing intelligent poker, not gambling (at least not in the long run).

[adanthar]

Stop raising 1/4 of your stack and you won't have this problem. Also, there's nothing wrong with raising AKs knowing you will get three callers. If you don't know what to do when you miss, quit poker; if you don't know what to do when you hit, only playing some more will teach you. So basically, make it t75 or maybe 100, then, like, make up your mind what to do from there (hint: if KK pushed, you'd still call.)