88 in EP. (Stars $20 Deepstack) Oh, and i'm a calling station.

[Exitonly]

Ok i was talking to my friend about this hand and he and i disagreed on every street, so i though maybe this would be an interesting hand.

Converted at PokerGeek (http://pokergeek.com/cgi-bin/handconverter/convert.cgi)
PokerStars NL Hold'em Tournament - 50/100 Blinds (10 handed)

Starting Stacks
Seat 1: Button (T16645)
Seat 2: Small blind (T9680)
Seat 3: BB (T6800)
Seat 4: UTG (T5550)
Seat 5: UTG+1 (T7045)
Seat 6: EP (Hero) (T4850)
Seat 7: MP1 (T4055)
Seat 8: MP2 (T4060)
Seat 9: LP (T2783)

Preflop: Hero is EP with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero raises (300), <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls (300), LP calls (300), Button folds, Small blind folds, BB calls (200)

<font color="#666666"> This a bit loose to be raising this here? I thought it was fine, but my friend was saying a limp is better. I think i'd limp with a shorter stack, but 50 BB's seems big enouogh for me. </font>

Flop: (T1250) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets (600), LP folds, BB folds, Hero calls (600)

<font color="red"> I kinda froze here and didn't c-bet because all the people in the hand scared me. But once he bet and it was folded around to me, i thought i'd see a turn and see what he does. </font>

Turn: (T2450) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP2 bets (1000), Hero calls (1000)

<font color="red">I figured at this point i was probably good, but if i am, he's not going to call me if i check-push, so i thought i might be able to get some more out of him on the river. and he's probably only got like 10-15% equity in the hand, so i should be good giving the 'free' card. But is this pot big enough that i should be fine just taking what's in there? </font>

River: (T4450) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP2 all-in (2160), Hero calls (2160)

<font color="red"> reason i just called on the turn was hoping he would do this on the river, so i call. But now i'm thinking that he's probably bluffing less than 50% of the time here so i probably should have just taken the pot on the turn</font>

Final Pot: T8770


meh, boring hand? Did i go nuts? Hands make me think when i ask someone i respeect if they'd make the call on the river and they say "No earthly idea. I'd never ever be there."

[MLG]

Preflop.
Raising and calling are both fine. I'd dislike the raise if players behind you had you covered, but they dont, so im down.

Flop.
I like. Sometimes I'll bet here, a normal cb but also I want LP to fold and maker the hand easier. There's nothing wrong with your line though.

Turn.
You catch a really good card for your hand and he makes another small bet, you are either crushed or ahead. Obviously this is the real decision point. If you call here you are pretty much committed to closing your eyes and calling any riverbet. I dont love the spot that you get yourself into here, but im ok with following through and calling down.

River.
After the turn call this is automatic imo. His bet is only half the pot so you are getting 3:1 so you only need to be ahead 1/4 of the time to call. but again, you've created those odds for yourself with the turn decision.

[Doylestown]

Preflop - I like to mix up my play with small/mid pairs so raising and calling both work for me.

Flop - Again I like to mix it up with one of:
a ck and call
a continuation bet
a ck raise

So again I'm fine with your play on the flop

Turn - I don't hate the ck call with the intention of calling any river but I probably am more apt to ck raise all in here and take it down (assuming it's mine). The all in ck raise should get rid of pocket 9's and pocket 10's which are two of the hands that my opponent could be holding in this spot. It's a nice pot which adds plenty of bullets to my gun, gimmee.

[kuro]

I'm very sleep deprived, but I'm having a really hard time understanding how your line does anything but donk off your whole stack the vast majority of the time. It's multiway, there are no real draws on the flop, you raised from ep, and you put unknown villain with deep stack on a bluff and call off your whole stack? Villain's got a weak jack or a turned boat a huge percentage of the time.

I think your pre-flop raise in early position is fine and I raise middle PP a lot more in early position than limping. I think I like a c-bet much more in this situation vs. a check call.

Only problem with my opinion here is I think I c-bet far more than I should. But in this situation I think a c-bet will define your hand a lot more, and allow you to get away from it easier.

I think something that needs to be considerd is that if you were worried about betting into that many people than MP 2 should have some concerns as well. He still bet into 2 other players which tells me his hand could have some merit.

So after thinking about it I would prob bet, check/fold. And tell myself I was beat by 10J or QJ suited.

[Masquerade]

I like a small raise with a medium pair, particularly with a deep stack. It inhibits someone else with a medium pair making a raise if you just limp.

After raising pre-flop I'd always make a continuation bet unless I flopped a monster or so badly that I'm not putting any more chips in so I don't like the check-call so much.

Let's take his bet at face value: He's announcing he thinks he has the best hand. No real draw he could be betting so he's got a Jack or a pair. As he called a raise an overpair is unlikely so maybe 77-TT range.

I don't like checking the turn as this is your chance to get him off a better hand if he has 99 or TT. Alternatively you could check-raise the Jack. The turn bet from him doesn't seem too confident. Maybe he's got a Jack and is worried about the kicker or still feels like his pair is good.

River push indicates he thinks he has the best hand or nothing. A jack just takes a showdown here as does a pair. As there's no draw he could've been betting I put him on JT or TT now and fold. I certainly wouldn't be in this spot, or anything near it, with 88.

[whiskeytown]

I wanna lay this down post flop if a continuation bet fails to drive them away..- don't ask me why....

but I'm not usually in the Big Stack tourneys - hate taking 10 hrs to finish a tourney.

I have no problem with the raise EP - and a nice fired out bet - but after that I would probably shut down...

don't suppose you wanna tell us what he had? -:)

RB

[stokken]

Playing deepstack I would limp 88 100% of the time with low blinds, I am looking to flopp a monster and have no trouble muckig a no hit avoiding tunelling my self into the fog of war. The limp Pf also makes it easier to fold Pf. This is very Deepstack related as in other structures or settings I could be very happy to see 88. It helps on the image as well for later stages if any is taking notice that is.

PS broke my spell of bad beats and finally made a ft again yesterday, tried my best to put bad beats on others but failed miserably HAHAHAHAHA

Peace exit, could you Pm your spread sheet again please?

Stokken

Let me quantify myself before I say much, I'm around a 2.5 on MLGs Evolution scale. With that said, I like the raise and this is easy to let go to any reraise, I dont like checking the flop, a 1/2 to 2/3 C-bet makes sense to me. Why? My reasoning is that there were 4 players in the pot, not worried, one over card, slightly concerned, and you were the PF agressor, good. My only concern is that you are a calling station, was this consitent with your play up to this point? I made this exact same play with 88 UTG+1 to a board of AJ7. I made a c-bet of 2/3 the pot, folds back to the button. He says "Can I really lay this down? I think you have AK." He folds and I showed him my 88. He had AT. Thats my play and my take on it.

[johnnybeef]

pf: i usually minraise this considering you are still pretty deep, and are playing this for set instead of showdown value.

flop: this is a beautiful dry flop for your hand. Go ahead and keep on playing this like AA.


turn: so far you have played your hand exactly like you have 88. I'm guessing that he really isn't driving the bus here with ace high (although there is a chance), 66, or a draw. More than likely he has a jack or maybe TT. I fold this one.

river: how often do you think that hes bluffing? he may have had something wierd like 45c or something, but more than likely he is strong (or at least stronger than you) as such you are getting a good price, and are pretty much committed.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]

reason i just called on the turn was hoping he would do this on the river, so i call. But now i'm thinking that he's probably bluffing less than 50% of the time here so i probably should have just taken the pot on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesnt really make sense to me. If you were hoping he would bet the river (on the turn) why does the T scare you?

So the T helps him X% of the time. Do you really think it is often enough that you could have 'taken the pot on the turn'? The hands that he isnt bluffing with on the river are close to the same as the hands he wont be pushed off on the turn. Sure AT, KT, may improve, but I dont see them as much of his range here.

[2005]

[ QUOTE ]
pf: i usually minraise this considering you are still pretty deep, and are playing this for set instead of showdown value.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is the case, why would you min-raise? If you're playing for set value, you want as many people in there as possible, and though it seems ridiculous, some people will fold a hand for a min raise that they would have called if it was for just a limp.

[mlagoo]

well i just dont know about all this.

i think villian played this hand just like 66-TT, Jx would. barring a specific read, i think my default line here is to check/fold or bet/fold the turn. i guess i just dont see villian having 66-88 enough here to make calling down profitable.

also, i think i normally CB this flop. there really aren't THAT many people in the hand with you ... and this is a totally innocent flop. barring a CB, on this board, I would do a check-call flop-bet turn-shutdown river line. its kind of predictable, but i mean its a stars $20 tourney, fancy play probably isnt all that necessary.

this is a really disorganized post. i need to work on that.

[locutus2002]

I'd lead the flop. Against so many players it is unlikely that hero would check the flop if he held a jack. Once hero checks, his hand becomes very vulnerable OOP. Villain's 1/2 pot bet into a 4-way pot looks fishy, I might consider c/r to T1800 if I had a read on him as a joker.

The turn was very lucky for you. Hero would probably have to give up on many turns. I'd push the turn.
My guess is that hero is behind against villain's range slightly.
~30 ways good jack
~30 ways good overs
Villain is ahead slightly more pairs than hero is ahead.

In spite of this, I'm calling 100% of the time on the river after the turn, given the overlay in the pot.

Villain's 15% equity when hero is ahead is substantial because of the implied odds.

Pushing the turn is also consistent with a variety of holdings for hero.

I don't like villain's line. I prefer checking behind (preferable because WA/WB) or push the turn. His 1K bet is supposed to look like a milking bet for a jack which is now much less likely and the 1K bet commits him to the pot. He probably makes a slightly EV- call here against a c/push by hero.

After the river, I call with incredulity and curse the poker gods.

Pre-flop: Limping and raising are fine. If I limp, I play for a set, so no hit no bet (if I hit I may slow-play), but if I raise, I will likely do a CB on any flop unless there's an ace with 4 callers (too much chance I will get called and I don't like to bet the flop and then shut down - this is for table image purposes, it's important that people know that when I bet, I am not sutting down, so if they only call, they will afce a big turn bet).

So given your raise and 3 callers, the flop is pretty decent to you, only 1 over and it's a J. I would CB, but if I don't I am not calling his bet, why would he bet 600 with air?

Turn - A second J and he bets semi-weak (this bet is enough to make you call the turn and also gives you the pot odds to call any river all-in if you call the turn, so I think that if his plan is to go all-in on the river because he has a good hand, his 1000 bet is perfect)

Why call here? I fhe has over, make him fold by re-raising all-in, if he has 99 or 10-10 (I would be surprised) make him lay it down also.

River - At that point you have to call.

I think Vilain palyed this hand very well!

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
This doesnt really make sense to me. If you were hoping he would bet the river (on the turn) why does the T scare you?

So the T helps him X% of the time. Do you really think it is often enough that you could have 'taken the pot on the turn'? The hands that he isnt bluffing with on the river are close to the same as the hands he wont be pushed off on the turn. Sure AT, KT, may improve, but I dont see them as much of his range here.


[/ QUOTE ]

The T didn't scare me specifically, just now that i look back at the hand, i dont think he bets here often enough (without a hand) to make it more profitable than c/r the turn. If i'm letting him see the river for free/cheap, it should be either because i'm trying for a cheap showdown, or i think he'll bluff at it, and neither seems to be true in this hand.


---

Anyways, i still dunno what i think of this, Villain in the hand had A /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif . For a a pair of 3's. I think if i did it again i'd have c/r the turn, but i like it up until there. And if it was a situation where it hought he'd bluff more often on the river, i'd call the turn, to call any river bet.

[DeuceKicker]

I don't think you played this like a deep-stack-poker hand (not that I'm an authority). What's the point of having 50BB if on the turn you're considering a check-push, but opt instead to call the anticipated river push from villain?

I realize that the number of callers changed the dynamic of the hand quite a bit. Was this normal for this table?

[A_PLUS]

Gotcha, I just misunderstood how you were presenting your thinking.

Here are some numbers I worked out for the hand.

3450 in the pot, we have 2 options.

1.)Call to try to induce a river bluff or get a hand like TT to let us off cheap by checking behind the river.

2.)CR to shut out hands that are drawing live, possibly getting 99-TT to fold

We can make it easier by ignoring hands are going to the felt regardless JX, QQ+, 22, 33. They are getting all of the chips in no matter what, and we are resigned to call. Our line is irrelevant. Same goes for any hand we beat that villan is married to, 66,77, etc.

Inducing the Bluff
Worst case scenario is that he has 2OC hearts. But they are infrequent enough that I am willing to ignore them.

The most likely worst case scenario is Villan has 5-6 outs. I could see situations where 2 OCs or pair+OC would get here.

The most likely best case scenario is Villan has an underpair, drawing to 2 outs.


6 outs
12% of the time, he will hit on the river and we pay him off
-Hero has 790 after the hand

88% of the time, he will miss, and either chose to bluff or check behind.
-Hero has 7400 when Villan checks behind
-Hero has 9560 assuming Villan bluffs off his entire stack.

So, when villan is not a bluffer with 6 outs
.12(790) + .88(7400) = 6606

When villan is a bluffer
.12(790) + .88(9560) = 8507

We need him to be the bluffing type 41% of the time here for a call to be correct. Of course, if he wont bluff off his entire stack that changes. For instance, if he only will bluff 1000 chips, we would need him to do it 90% of the time.

Here is some examples of how often we need him to bluff given his outs and bluff size,

O(outs)=5, B(bluff size)=2160 = 34%
O(5), B(1000) = 73%
O(2), B(2160) = 13%
O(2), B(1000) = 28%

The Call, also has the added benefit of possibly causing him to check behind the river with 99, TT, when he would have called a CR push on the turn.

Take the pot
The check-raise is easy to value. Since there arent any likely draws, we assume that the value of the play is 7400 + the EV from causing 99-TT to fold.

Hands like 99-TT are only a small portion of villans range, and since both plays give the villan a chance to make a mistake on our behalf, I think we can ignore them too, when deciding between lines.

So, as usual, we go through the math, and it comes down to specific read. How many outs do we think he has (I would 2-5 most likely), and how often to we think he will bluff off his stack here.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain's 15% equity when hero is ahead is substantial because of the implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really, the pot is double his stack. When he hits, we would gladly give him the rest of our stack for the money in the pot. So, the immediate odds are the worry here. The pot is offering both players 2-1, add in another stack and its goes to 3-1, not really enough to change how that many hands are played.

[locutus2002]

The pot is T2500 at the turn.

villain stands to win 15% of T5500 if we check/call the river or ~T825. This is the equity we give up by checking the turn against two overs. We give up this equity for the case when villain bluffs when he is behind, which should be pretty slim, even though this was the case and villain made a mini-bluff at the turn, and a mini-bluff on the river.

IMO villain should have checked behind on the turn or pushed putting a really difficult decision to hero, and the amount of times he bluffs/pushes is not enough to justify hero checking the turn and giving a free card IMO. Given the fact that neither side is likely to have the jack, villain should be content with the equity that hero is giving him (free card) and check behind.

In my line I'd expect villain to call most of the hands that are ahead, and many of the hands that are behind.

[A_PLUS]

You dont think Villan bluffs the turn? There are plenty of potential hands that bet this without thinking they are bluffing. It really doesnt look like we have a J. So, I think he bets any PP, AX KX with a pair, and a lot of over cards. If he checks behind, that is fine. We prefer this pot small anyway

[locutus2002]

IF villain bets the turn he should push not mini-bluff.

From villain's point of view, hero probably has a midpair or overs. Villain is behind. (Note that from both players point of view they are behind) The number of jacks that villain can represent dropped by 50%. Hero is probably committed to the pot with a mid pair. I'd say villains FE just dropped dramatically, and he should check behind and expect hero to check on the river.

[A_PLUS]

I agree that, villan's best line is either to jam the turn or check.

[IMTheWalrus8]

*blind response*

I've been thinking about this type of calldown line a lot lately.

Preflop: Raising or calling is fine. I'd raise if it's a tight table and call if there's a lot of limping going on.

Flop: Definitely understand no continuation bet, and also the call. The problem is that MP2 is betting into 3 players, so it depends on the read. Sans that, I think we have to fold here. I think it's important that we decide if we're ahead here or not, instead of waiting for the turn to see what he does.

Turn: The way this hand played out, how about leading out with a bet of 1200-1500? If he calls, we'll probably have to check and let it go on the river. If he pushes we fold.

River: I don't like this. There's another overcard and MP2 has been betting every street. I think most villains who are behind us here are going to make a smaller bet unless he's a tricky player.

I like the calldown line a lot when your heads-up on the flop. Here it looks like we're behind too often to make this play.

Any read on MP2 here?

I do think this is an interesting hand.