NHL thought / bet for tonight

[gomberg]

I've never made a bet on an NHL game even though I am (unfortunately for me in Chicago) an avid fan.

There was a blowup at the BlackHawk's practice yesterday by the captain after a tough, tough skate about not trying hard enough in games especially on defense mentally. He laid into the team for a while.

Will the team respond by playing a better game tonight? I'm thinking of betting on the Hawks against Nashville at +101 or so. I also think the over 5.5 might be a good bet as well although it's -120 or so.

Good move, bad move? I'm new to handicapping this type of stuff - thoughts?

[dankhank]

it feels good when you make this kind of analysis and the bet wins, but i think psychology-based moves like this are just coinflips. ie it can be one factor in a strong play, but not sufficent as the only one.

[YoureToast]

I'm a big fan of psychology based bets because there's typically an edge thats not reflected in the line. The problem with this particular bet is two-fold, however. First, if this is widely known information, any effect on the blowup should theoretically be reflected in the line. Second, blowups like this can go both ways -- it could prove to hurt the team more than it helps. You, as a fan, would know better about the what effect it should have. If you feel that it will more than likely have a positive impact and you also think this has not been reflected in the line, there probably is value there.

[Yads]

It's at +105 now, I'm not sure that it will be a big enough factor. The game looks to be a coin flip anyway, doesn't look like there's much money to be made. Most of the games tonight don't look that great although Islanders/Devils might be worth a shot at the under.

[gomberg]

Thanks for the replies all. I think I'm going to make a small bet just to "test" my theory out. It's known, but only in local chicago papers on the 5th page of the sports section (blackhawks are maybe the 5th most popular sports team in chicago).

[TheRake]

The over might not be a bad play on this game. It looks like Nashville will be starting Mason in net. Only problem is you never know what you are going to get with Khabibulin. He will give up 5 goals one night then turn around and only give up one the next night. Still with the o/u at 5 1/2 it should be no problem. If Khabibulin has one of his bad nights Nashville could score 6 on their own.

Don't want to hijack your thread, but we might as well keep all the NHL stuff in one thread.

I am looking at LA tonight. Anyone have any thoughts on this one? They have been playing well lately and at +131 vs Calgary there looks to be a nice overlay. I have the game as basically a coin flip. Thoughts?

TheRake

Yeah, personally I don't see the Kings beating the Flames. The Flames will be upset over the loss to the Oil and will be ready for this one. At home with Kipper in goal...I'd take the Flames.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the replies all. I think I'm going to make a small bet just to "test" my theory out. It's known, but only in local chicago papers on the 5th page of the sports section (blackhawks are maybe the 5th most popular sports team in chicago).

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not being a jerk, but I am curious how this is really a way to "test" your theory? With teams this evenly matched (according to the line) the outcome is very close to 50/50. So, even if CHI wins, that doesn't mean you were right and even if they lose, it doesn't mean you were wrong. A sample size of 1 is rarely adequate to know if your theory was correct. Now, if you place this same type of wager over 100-300 games, then you might have a better idea.

craig

[TheRake]

No doubt they are a great defensive team, but I just don't see how they can keep pace with their lack of offense. Especially in this new NHL. Eventually they are going to have to start scoring.

There is no way in hell I would lay -141 on Calgary tonight. It's way to much chalk for 2 teams that are pretty evenly matched. It is either LA or nothing.

[ QUOTE ]
No doubt they are a great defensive team, but I just don't see how they can keep pace with their lack of offense. Especially in this new NHL. Eventually they are going to have to start scoring.

There is no way in hell I would lay -141 on Calgary tonight. It's way to much chalk for 2 teams that are pretty evenly matched. It is either LA or nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

That I agree with. That's why I'm choosing NO PLAY for this one.

[Yads]

[ QUOTE ]
No doubt they are a great defensive team, but I just don't see how they can keep pace with their lack of offense. Especially in this new NHL. Eventually they are going to have to start scoring.

There is no way in hell I would lay -141 on Calgary tonight. It's way to much chalk for 2 teams that are pretty evenly matched. It is either LA or nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to be a homer, but the line is probably pretty close to true line. The flames and Kipper played poorly the last game, they are going to come ready to play tonight. Also LA is now missing Roenick, not like he was playing well, but I think he adds a lot of leadership in the dressing room.

[gomberg]

Right - i didn't mean to imply I was testing... I'm just placing a bet / gambling with what I think is a small edge. I do keep all my bets and reasons in a database - so in a couple years when I have some sample size on this, I'll let you know the results /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I've only been betting on sports for about 6 months now, and it's been interesting so far. Poker is way more lucrative for me but I like the work and research that goes into sports betting so it's a fun side hobby.

As for my results thus far, I've been pretty down on just handicapping games, but WAY up on futures bets and divisional champion, series champion bets. The future bets play to my strength of analyzing situations and seeing the public bias on certain teams (baseball playoffs were way off this year).

Anyway, as far back as I can remember with the hawks, whenever the captain or coach has an outburst with young players, they play better for a couple weeks. Then when they suck again and get yelled at again, the effect is usually minimized. Since this is the first time something like this has happened this year for a very young team, I'm banking on them playing better than usual tonight and maybe for a couple more games.

considering aucoin hasn't played in a week, I'm not sure it carries as much weight. and that he's -4 with 1 goal and 5 assists.

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, personally I don't see the Kings beating the Flames. The Flames will be upset over the loss to the Oil and will be ready for this one. At home with Kipper in goal...I'd take the Flames.

[/ QUOTE ]

Last moment injury update: Conroy out for the kings.
BUT, Suave is in net for Cal.

[gomberg]

Oh well - looks like the hawks bet sucked.... if only the owners would play the home games on TV, I'd be able to at least watch my money go away /images/graemlins/smile.gif

don't know where that "suave in net" came from. got it from a formerly reliable source.
kings were without conroy, belanger, roenick, and miller (after the 1st period).
bad news for calgary.

[TheRake]

Well glad I stuck with my gut feeling on that one. Went with LA against everyones opinion. Working on a nice 4-0 night if Edmonton can pull one out. Got a wild one going in Vancouver right now.

[20Five]

[ QUOTE ]
Well glad I stuck with my gut feeling on that one. Went with LA against everyones opinion. Working on a nice 4-0 night if Edmonton can pull one out. Got a wild one going in Vancouver right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

good stuff TheRake, you seem to really be finding 'value' in some of these games where as most others are just taking games they like.. I like the approach, hope the results keep up..

GL!

[TheRake]

I honestly believe you can't beat the books if you are always on the favorites. It's not to say there aren't times when the favorite is the way to go. But just because you were on the winning side one night doesn't necesarily mean you were on the right side. The idea is to try and find "live dogs". Tonight I had LA as a -102 favorite so getting +131 looks like a huge overlay for me. Even if my numbers are off a little I have room for error. I also had Edmonton as a +112 dog, but I picked them up at +140 so I had some nice wiggle room on that one too. It doesn't always work out the way it did tonight, but I can win less than 50% of my picks and still make money.

The other thing to watch is that the juice is usually on the favorites because that is the way the public bets. So when you bet favorites you are already losing $.10 (give or take)in value on your pick. That's my impression anyway /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[craig r]

What reason do you have to think the juice is always on the favs? If a line was -120/+110 wouldn't the "fair line" be 115 (either way)? I am not saying it is that black and white, but I doubt if all (or most) of the juice is on the -140 of a -140/+120 bet. In fact, there is a good chance, especially with a 20 cent line, that neither side is very good because of the juice.

craig

[TheRake]

I didn't say "always" and I also said it was my impression.

When I cap a game to try and find a fair line more times than not my dog line is closer to what the books have on the game.

When you look at the consensus picks on wagerline they are almost always on the favorites. To me it makes sense that the books would tilt the juice that way because of this.

[craig r]

Fair enough. So, is there a way to actually figure out what % is on the dog and what % is on the fav for a 10 cent line? 20 cents? There has to be a way to theoretically figure it out.

craig

[ QUOTE ]
Well glad I stuck with my gut feeling on that one. Went with LA against everyones opinion. Working on a nice 4-0 night if Edmonton can pull one out. Got a wild one going in Vancouver right now.

[/ QUOTE ]
You weren't against everyone. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I got +150 late.
Considering the kings were without their two best centers (conroy,belanger), I don't think there was that much value. what tipped it for me was Garon v. 'Suave'.
Had edm/van over, so that was done after the 1st.

[ QUOTE ]
I honestly believe you can't beat the books if you are always on the favorites. It's not to say there aren't times when the favorite is the way to go. But just because you were on the winning side one night doesn't necesarily mean you were on the right side. The idea is to try and find "live dogs". Tonight I had LA as a -102 favorite so getting +131 looks like a huge overlay for me. Even if my numbers are off a little I have room for error. I also had Edmonton as a +112 dog, but I picked them up at +140 so I had some nice wiggle room on that one too. It doesn't always work out the way it did tonight, but I can win less than 50% of my picks and still make money.

The other thing to watch is that the juice is usually on the favorites because that is the way the public bets. So when you bet favorites you are already losing $.10 (give or take)in value on your pick. That's my impression anyway /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
I believe you are correct. Hockey can be quite situational, with travel, injuries, matchups making for some very live dogs. It also seems to me that home ice is over-rated.
Betting the + seems to be the way to go.

[TheRake]

Uggg I can't believe I am still awake, but I can't stop thinking about this now /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Fair enough. So, is there a way to actually figure out what % is on the dog and what % is on the fav for a 10 cent line? 20 cents? There has to be a way to theoretically figure it out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think there is. So let me put it another way.

The closest way I can explain this is that the books don't know exactly how much action they are going to get on each side of a line. What they do know is that they will get more action on the favorite most of the time. So by adding the juice on that side of the line they are giving the square gamblers (which is the majority) the worst of it. Meaning when the squares win they will win less than they should and when they lose they will lose more than they should. In the meantime when the sharp side wins they win just about what they should win (if their line is accurate). The reason why you can find value on the favorite sometimes is because the lines aren't always accurate.

There is no way they can get even betting on both sides of the line because 1 team is usually the clear favorite and they can't do point spreads because the scores aren't high enough.

Also it seems it is much easier to hide the juice on a ML than it is when you are using point spreads.

It would be nice if MrBaseball or Whipsaw would chime in on this because betting baseball is much the same in this regard. I'm sure they know more about this than I do.

[craig r]

Well, I think the best way to start would be to find games with no edge. For example, if the "true" odds of a favorite winning is -/+140 (41.7), we might see a line of -150/+130. Neither side is a good bet obviously. The books will have an edge no matter what side people take. Even if they ended up super lopsided on one side, they will win money in the long run. In my example, the juice is 10 cents from a fair price. But you are thinking if the line was actually -150/+130 it is probably closer to a true line of 135, right? Obviously, neither side is good to bet, but if forced to bet, you would be better off taking the +130. I cannot say that you are definitely wrong, but from what I have understood, it is probably closer to the median (which is also why 20 cent lines suck, because it makes it tough to find a "true" rogue line.

I would really like Tech, DougOzzzz, and/or Sublime reply. That isn't a bash on Whipsaw and Mr.Baseball; they just don't look at everything as mathematical as Tech, Doug, and Sublime.

craig

also, go to sleep. No matter how long you stay up you will not be right /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Well glad I stuck with my gut feeling on that one. Went with LA against everyones opinion. Working on a nice 4-0 night if Edmonton can pull one out. Got a wild one going in Vancouver right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nicely done. I'll admit I was wrong. You should post the bets you make so we can follow in your success.

I rarely bet favorites. I find it's usually too much juice to lay down...especially in hockey where anything can happen on any given night. Of the 38 straight bets I've laid over the last couple months, only 10 were on favorites.