Interesting/Fun Hypothetical Situation

[Steve]

You're in an online MTT. Midway through the tourney, still far from the money. You have 15,000 chips, blinds 500/1000, so your M is 10. The player to left has exactly 15,000 chips too.

Here's the hypothetical part. This opponent says, "Lets flip a coin, and the winner gets all the other player's chips" (imagine for a moment that's legal). Do you:

1) Accept his offer, because the blinds are starting to get big and this is a 50% chance to double up and get up to an M of 20 and be in better shape?

2) Decline his offer because you believe you can get your chips in with better odds on some future hand.

[Roman]

lol

[ZBTHorton]

Or

You could put all of the names of every player left in the tournament in a hat, and pick them out one by one, deciding the order of finish for the tournament.

Boyyyyyyyyyy. That'd be sweeetttt

I might accept his offer if I thought I was weaker than the average player in the tournament. I would be more likely to do that if the average stack size was higher than my chip stack, with the chances me accepting this offer increasing the higher that average was.
Otherwise no way.

[2005]

Meh, not that interesting. If you think you're better than the average player in the field, there is no way you should be taking this.

[ZBTHorton]

[ QUOTE ]
Meh, not that interesting. If you think you're better than the average player in the field, there is no way you should be taking this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gavin..posting in stupid threads...look out...he might be coming back...

[2005]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Meh, not that interesting. If you think you're better than the average player in the field, there is no way you should be taking this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gavin..posting in stupid threads...look out...he might be coming back...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I'm getting over my sulking period/personal problems and should be posting/playing/enjoying life more these days.

[Roman]

cool, glad to see you back.

[A_Junglen]

No....No.

[censored] No, man.

[Steve]

well, it isn't really THAT stupid a question. The point of it is, at what M would you actually be happy getting a coin flip. Obviously if your M is 1, and the blinds are coming up, you'd be happy to get a coin flip, because otherwise you're gonna hit the big blind and probably be on the bad end of a 60/40 or worse.

Then what about M=3. If you don't take the coin flip now, you'll lose 1/3 of your stack to the blinds.

So at what M do you accept his offer?

[Rekwob]

this is more fun/ interesting if your coinflip includes the amount of blinds/antes with it, so you get 31.5k in your first example

if the moon were made of cheese would you eat it?

[A_Junglen]

I just realized how NOT fun and NOT interesting this is.

How is this fun?

[MrLob]

Look up Matt Matros' article in Card Player either 1 or 2 issues ago and you will get the math answer to this type of question. It was a very interesting article about pushing small edges and even taking coinflips.