AK squeeze play--good,bad, awful?

[jsnipes28]

How bad is this (attempt at) squeeze play?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

SB ($109.15)
BB ($280)
Hero ($98)
MP ($92)
CO ($52.65)
Button ($97)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Hero calls $1, [color=#CC3333]MP raises to $2</font>, [color=#CC3333]CO raises to $5</font>, Button calls $5, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, BB calls $4, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to $98</font>,

[jsnipes28]

Is this an extremely boring hand? Thinking about it now i believe i should have raised to like 40 and folded to a push from anyone other than CO.

Hmmm...can't say that I really like it. I think with all the action behind your original limp you can assume that you're looking at at least one PP 88 or better, and at this level I think you'll get called down by a pair (this is small-stakes poker after all.) Granted, you could just as easily be looking at hands like A10 or AJ for MP and AQ for the cutoff, but without a read I would put CO on 1010, JJ, or QQ. As for your push - if you read MP or the cutoff for a pair, you're pushing knowing you're at best a slight dog b/c I think they will call - and keep in mind MP has not acted again - his minraise could be KK or AA making a "sweetener" raise (although since you hold AK this isn't likely but isn't impossible).

Honestly, the more I think and write I'm not sure what I'd do here. Half of me would want to fold, but the devil on my shoulder would want me to make a push. But since I think your push is going to be called by a LOT of PP's, I'm not sure I'd push knowing I'm in a flip. Usually I want to be pretty sure I can get some folds if I shove with AK. Tough hand though bro.

[jsnipes28]

Remember this is a limp-reraise for me so i assume that i am folding out TT and worse. You think 88 or 77 are calling me here as either 55/45 favorites or 80/20 dogs?

[Huhmare]

Question. Why not just see the flop and fold the hand if you miss?

[jsnipes28]

[ QUOTE ]
Question. Why not just see the flop and fold the hand if you miss?

[/ QUOTE ]
Because then i am playing a 6-way raised pot OOP with oogles of pocket pairs who are looking to spike a set. This allows me to take it down preflop or get it heads up where an A or K means i am good.
I certainly don't think my line is best but i hate calling here.

[bruin]

I don't like it. What's wrong with just calling here? If it's a six way pot then you almost assuredly have pot equity with your AK. If you miss the flop then you can fold, simple as that.

[Huhmare]

But if somebody calls you with a pocket pair? Then you are still behind..

[bruin]

I'm not sure what you're getting at. AK is a drawing hand, it's supposed to be behind. Seeing a flop here is +EV because you have pot equity over your opponents (most likely) weaker holdings. If you push here you may run into a coin flip (which is not preferable or even +EV at times in cash) or be dominated.

[c_strong]

I think this is very risky with deep money and is probably -EV. Frankly it looks like FPS to me. You could have avoided this by not limping AK UTG but raising like you should. It's an OK move with a short stack, but deep you're more likely to be way behind if you get called.

I don't like this play.

I hate the limp preflop, especially in a 6 handed game. With about $18 in the pot your now pushing in another $97. I think you take this down often enough or end up in a coinflip often enough to make this ok.

If you reraise to $40 then you are going to have a very tough decision if you miss the flop. You're probably going to have to check fold. If you flat call the raise you're going to be looking at a 4 way pot OOP and could easily go broke to a better hand even if you hit your A or K.

I think reraising to about $25 would be a good move and will probably get the pot heads up or even take it down. If you're called you still have enough to make a stab at the pot since they have to fear a big hand with the limp/raise from EP. If you're reraised all in then this is probably an easy fold.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what you're getting at. AK is a drawing hand, it's supposed to be behind. Seeing a flop here is +EV because you have pot equity over your opponents (most likely) weaker holdings. If you push here you may run into a coin flip (which is not preferable or even +EV at times in cash) or be dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Snipes is thinking that he can take down this pot pre-flop often enough to make this a profitable play even when it does end up in a coin toss.

I'm not a big fan of narrow +ev plays in NL. That's a limit mentality. I try to save my big bets for situations where I'm getting a big overlay.

[unlucky513]

awful

[Finite_Risk]

[ QUOTE ]
This allows me to take it down preflop or get it heads up where an A or K means i am good.


[/ QUOTE ]

I would not necessarily feel good if an A or K spikes on the flop. With all the action behind you, don't you think AA or KK are very possible here?

There has to be a better spot than pushing here with AK=Anna Kournikova...looks good but wins way less than it should

[GrunchCan]

I hate preflop. Open-limp in EP with AK? You either overvalue AK, or you undervalue AK. Open-limping is almost always wrong with a TP-type hand, and this is certianly no exception.

I don't know much about squeeze plays, but I know it depends on FE. You don't have enough here. Given your terrible postflop position and the fact that you aren't closing the betting here, I want to fold. I may not (or I may), but I want to.

[jsnipes28]

I agree about wanting to fold Grunch because i have zero desire to see an A 8 4 flop and me bet and get two callers. The pot is 18 so i bet 15 on the flop and get two smoothcallers, i check/fold the turn? That sucks. Here i am either going to fold and refuse to play a large, raised pot OOP or i am going to reraise which should fold out the minraiser and perhaps get it heads up with the CO who only has 50BB. At that price i certainly don't mind coinfipping for $50 with a $20 overlay and able to see all 5 cards.

[ QUOTE ]
This allows me to take it down preflop or get it heads up where an A or K means i am good.

[/ QUOTE ]
At this price, if you get this heads up, I doubt you're good. If you get a caller you'd be lucky if they have queens or jacks. AA or KK would be more likely. This is a cash game, therefore, you don't need to run pre-flop races. Bet preflop. The way you played the hand, limping looking to reraise, I can understand that, so, reraise then, why go all in? Are you that scared to play post-flop?

Great, you risk $98 to win $16.50. Good job. HEE HAW.

[DCWildcat]

don't open limp this. hand changes from there.

[ajmargarine]

First off, I don't like the limp UTG. I've never been one to LRR and I certainly wouldn't do it with AK.

As for the push: I wouldn't say it's great, but I wouldn't say it's as bad as everyone before me is saying. CO has a shortstack so that's kind of good new/bad news. He's more likely to call, and if he calls one of the others behind him might now call as well. Plus, if you do get called by a pp, with all the preflop action, you'd have to assume that at least one of your aces or kings is in someone else's hand.

It's good that you would consider preflop pushes as a squeeze play, but this might now be the best time for one.