$11 Bubble: Do I push this?

Hey, just played this SNG and I am doubting my bubble play a little bit. I felt like I was not pushing enough hands. Please let me know what you think about these hands.

Should I have pushed this? Sorry, the [censored] HH converter isn't working (again)
/images/graemlins/mad.gif


#Game No : 3235583724
***** Hand History for Game 3235583724 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:18458018 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Tuesday, December 20, 21:22:33 EDT 2005
Table Table 66984 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: PuffintheAM ( $970 )
Seat 3: sake_joe ( $2495 )
Seat 7: rich_e_rich_ ( $3885 )
Seat 9: jbanks27 ( $650 )
Trny:18458018 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PuffintheAM [ 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif ]
PuffintheAM folds.
sake_joe folds.
rich_e_rich_ calls [75].
jbanks27 checks.





#Game No : 3235588234
***** Hand History for Game 3235588234 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:18458018 Level:6 Blinds(100/200) - Tuesday, December 20, 21:23:18 EDT 2005
Table Table 66984 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: PuffintheAM ( $970 )
Seat 3: sake_joe ( $2295 )
Seat 7: rich_e_rich_ ( $3635 )
Seat 9: jbanks27 ( $1100 )
Trny:18458018 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PuffintheAM [ 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif ]
jbanks27 folds.
PuffintheAM folds.
sake_joe calls [100].
rich_e_rich_ raises [200].
sake_joe calls [200].

[bluef0x]

You should invest in SnG Power Tools, it will tell you this easily and fast. I need to wait for my key to get back, but I'm pretty sure this is a fold. We'd need reads on the table though to be certain.

[HtotheNootch]

If you're going to push either of these, I like the first better - but that's just me.

I haven't done a powertools analysis (nor do I have it), but any callers are calling with high cards...

[Hendricks433]

Id say no on both. Maybe on 1 and I think its a definite no on 2.

[runner4life7]

i hate pushing the first one and the second one i think is close but im gonna lean towards fold.

Anyone have SNG Power tools that can check this out for me? In both of these cases, these guys are only calling me with high cards like you said. Therefore, I would rather push either of these 2 hands than a A/x, K/x or Q/x hand, because I am likely to be dominated with a high kicker. Clearly, a PP is the ideal pushing hand here... but I would rather push any 2 cards than face cards.

Any other thoughts?

[xJMPx]

Before I put it in SNGPT I’ll give my opinion. I’m surprised some are saying they would push the first one before the second one. I don’t get this, in the first one you are pushing your 6.46 BB stack through three opponents and there is a shorter stack than yours. The second one, you’re pushing a 4.85 BB stack through two opponents and now you are the small stack.

However, I still fold them both. For the second one, if it was a little better kicker like J7+ I would probably push.

Now SNGPT:

First one is affected greatly by their calling range. I put the short stack and big stack both pretty loose (44+,A2+,K9+) and the mid-stack much tighter (88+,ATs+,AJo+) and it is -1.3% EV. For this to be +0.5% all three need to be calling tighter than top 10% (55+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs).

The second one, they need to be even tighter. They need to be calling with top 8% (66+,AT+) or better for this to be +0.5% EV.

I’m surprised that the first one is closer than the second…Meh…

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone have SNG Power tools that can check this out for me?

[/ QUOTE ]
Dude just buy it. Eastbay works hard on it, and it'd be pretty gay if we just ran the numbers for everyone that wanted it.

Even if you don't want to buy it for some crazy reason, you should still download it because he includes some nice lessons in there for free, which you ought to consider yourself very lucky to have access to.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone have SNG Power tools that can check this out for me?

[/ QUOTE ]
Dude just buy it. Eastbay works hard on it, and it'd be pretty gay if we just ran the numbers for everyone that wanted it.

Even if you don't want to buy it for some crazy reason, you should still download it because he includes some nice lessons in there for free, which you ought to consider yourself very lucky to have access to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Take it easy bud. I respect that he works hard on the program, and I'm not trying to take anything away from him or his program. I am looking into buying it, but at $80, it seems a little pricey right now considering I'm playing the $10+$1's.

[bluef0x]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone have SNG Power tools that can check this out for me?

[/ QUOTE ]
Dude just buy it. Eastbay works hard on it, and it'd be pretty gay if we just ran the numbers for everyone that wanted it.

Even if you don't want to buy it for some crazy reason, you should still download it because he includes some nice lessons in there for free, which you ought to consider yourself very lucky to have access to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Take it easy bud. I respect that he works hard on the program, and I'm not trying to take anything away from him or his program. I am looking into buying it, but at $80, it seems a little pricey right now considering I'm playing the $10+$1's.

[/ QUOTE ]


You'll make that $80 back easily if you buy it. Right now I can tell you have a lot of trouble on the bubble, think of the $80 as an investment.

And your reasoning about rather pushing with trash than high cards is silly. #1 if you have 'high cards' then it's less likely your opponent will have those cards, meaning he's calling less. #2 even sometimes they will call with crap, or if they call with Ax at least 2 of your cards will be higher than his kicker.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Id say no on both. Maybe on 1 and I think its a definite no on 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pushing hand 1 is not even close to a maybe. You are 3rd place with 4 left, its ridiculously huge -EV to push there.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing hand 1 is not even close to a maybe. You are 3rd place with 4 left, its ridiculously huge -EV to push there.

[/ QUOTE ]

My initial reaction when reading that the OP was thinking of pushing hand one was, "Are you on crack?"

Not the most in depth analysis, but jeez...

Well, I didn't push either of these hands, and I'm glad I didn't. Thanks for the replies /images/graemlins/smile.gif And, no I was not on crack when I played (at least I don't think). I think my bubble play is better than 90% of the donks at the $10+$1's right now, but I know there is lots of room for improvement.

I was re-reading MJ's blind stealing article the other day and it got me thinking more about situation where it is +EV to push any two. What I forget sometimes is that his analysis is from the SB looking to steal the BB. What we find out, is that if either you (the SB) or the BB has <10BB stack, then it is +EV to push ANY 2 cards there.

Can anyone think of any other situations where this applies?

[tigerite]

MJ's article is all about chipEV.. it's flawed on many levels, especially on the bubble.

It is often times wrong to think of it as "What we find out, is that if either you (the SB) or the BB has <10BB stack, then it is +EV to push ANY 2 cards there." because this simply is not true.

Eg.

UTG 1 chip
Btn 1 chip
You 3000 chips
BB 4000 chips

Blinds 200/400

UTG folds, Btn folds.

Push any two? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Haha, point taken tigerite. The point I mentioned about pushing any 2 relies on more factors than just the BB and SB stacks. Clearly, if another player is about to bust out, you should play very cautiously. The GAP is huge, and you shouldn't be calling ANYTHING, and I would only push with TT+ probably...

[Hendricks433]

lol I definetly misread the hand. Didnt realize he was UTG.