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View Full Version : Are the SNGs really soft this week?

betgo
12-20-2005, 10:59 PM
I usually play MTTs, but I have been playing SNGs the last couple of weeks and have done well. Am I just learning how to beat the SNGs or are they a lot softer with the holidays?
12-20-2005, 11:04 PM
Do a search on +"variance".
12-20-2005, 11:08 PM
hehe, well pergesu and a couple others are playing about 100 per day this week. Maybe that's why your ROI is so high. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif
betgo
12-20-2005, 11:09 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Do a search on +"variance".

[/ QUOTE ]
I am doing better and it is not just variance. I wonder how much of it is I have finally figured out SNG situational play and how much is seasonal fluctuations in the competition.
Swedebubba
12-21-2005, 01:59 AM
A lot of people have that Christmas spirit and are willing to donate chips with a HO HO HO /images/graemlins/laugh.gif
12-21-2005, 02:23 AM
[ QUOTE ]
A lot of people have that Christmas spirit and are willing to donate chips with a HO HO HO /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

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LOL
12-21-2005, 02:48 AM
Rock garden at the 11s tonight for some reason
tshort
12-21-2005, 02:57 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I usually play MTTs, but I have been playing SNGs the last couple of weeks and have done well. Am I just learning how to beat the SNGs or are they a lot softer with the holidays?

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be impossible to prove any such theory, but I would agree that the weeks before and after Christmas might have many more casual players. Plenty of students have newfound boredom with winter break. One of my roomates played very casually throughout the semester, but played quite a bit after finals were over because he was bored. Free time + $Christmas money should contribute to more fish.
TheNoodleMan
12-21-2005, 01:35 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do a search on +"variance".

[/ QUOTE ]
I am doing better and it is not just variance. I wonder how much of it is I have finally figured out SNG situational play and how much is seasonal fluctuations in the competition.

[/ QUOTE ]
4k+ posts and you are sure that a couple week run on SNGs can't just be variance? Wow.
Pokey
12-21-2005, 01:37 PM
How's this for variance:

Back-to-back I played two SNGs. In one, five people were eliminated in the first 10 hands. In the second, we still had a full table at the end of level 3.
downtown
12-21-2005, 01:37 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do a search on +"variance".

[/ QUOTE ]
I am doing better and it is not just variance. I wonder how much of it is I have finally figured out SNG situational play and how much is seasonal fluctuations in the competition.

[/ QUOTE ]

This type of thinking is going to make it hard for you when you have a downswing.
12-21-2005, 01:58 PM
I have had a terrible week. Is this because of a seasonal fluctuation or do I just suck?
12-21-2005, 02:00 PM
Actually, I think the $55's are very tight lately. I live in Holland so I play pretty early (in US time), and I frequently have tight tables, and bubbles with only push/fold type players.
ebaudry
12-21-2005, 03:03 PM
"I usually play MTTs, but I have been playing SNGs the last couple of weeks and have done well. Am I just learning how to beat the SNGs or are they a lot softer with the holidays? "

They could be softer, but you would never know it due to sample size. I bet they probably are softer, but the sample size you need to prove it is too large to know.

Example: my first 150 games this month my ROI was 65% (up from the usual 13%!). The next 300 games (i.e the last 2 weeks) my ROI has been 1%.

I personally walk around with the assumption that you need to see 2000 games before you can talk about any sort of trend. Further example: in the middle of my breakeven 300, i hit a grandslam (1st in all 4 of my concurrent tables) and my ROI went through the roof, although only temporarily.

GL.
Vuron00
12-21-2005, 03:08 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I think the $55's are very tight lately. I live in Holland so I play pretty early (in US time), and I frequently have tight tables, and bubbles with only push/fold type players.

[/ QUOTE ]

I found the same thing last night in the $55's. Still at 6-8 people at levels 5 and 6 let me practice pushing. Not fun.

I decided to play a MTT instead of SnG's last night because I can only 2 table on my laptop.
Freudian
12-21-2005, 03:14 PM
I think these feelings are more related to how well you run more than anything.

I think over the last two years there have been noticable changes but short term I don't think so. Player numbers are pretty stable and I see no reason why the game should be different.
Hornacek
12-21-2005, 03:45 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Rock garden at the 11s tonight for some reason

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I doubt it.
yvesaint
12-21-2005, 03:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]

I am doing better and it is not just variance. I wonder how much of it is I have finally figured out SNG situational play and how much is seasonal fluctuations in the competition.

[/ QUOTE ]

how many have you played so far
12-21-2005, 03:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Rock garden at the 11s tonight for some reason

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I doubt it.

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Level 4 each time with 8-9 players left. Don't doubt it. I hope tonight is better.
REL18
12-21-2005, 04:09 PM
Its funny that youd think the week before christmas is the softest thats completely backwards only the real serious poker plays were play right now id wait till the 26th to play when everybody has money from christmas if your looking for really soft games
12-21-2005, 04:22 PM
he could be a long time reader and non poster

who knows
Hornacek
12-21-2005, 04:37 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Rock garden at the 11s tonight for some reason

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Level 4 each time with 8-9 players left. Don't doubt it. I hope tonight is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you have the world's worst game selection then. The $50s and $100s rarely have 9 people left level 4... more like 7-8, with people loosening up a lot in level 3.
eniven
12-21-2005, 04:40 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Rock garden at the 11s tonight for some reason

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Level 4 each time with 8-9 players left. Don't doubt it. I hope tonight is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you have the world's worst game selection then. The $50s and $100s rarely have 9 people left level 4... more like 7-8, with people loosening up a lot in level 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not alone either.... I've noticed this as well at the 11's. But, just two weeks ago I noticed how incredibly loose it was. So, I think it's just short term variance and a conincidence that we both find that the 11's have been tight this past week.