Spaded
12-20-2005, 09:38 PM
I'm not rain man, but i beleived at the time that it was +EV to push after the flop bet/raise.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)
BB ($88.35)
UTG ($39.10)
MP ($35.35)
Hero ($48.50)
SB ($29.70)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">SB (poster) raises to $1.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $1.25, Hero calls $1.25.
Flop: ($5.75) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $15</font>, Hero calls $46.75 (All-In), SB calls $22.95 (All-In), MP calls $18.60 (All-In).
Turn: ($114.05) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>
River: ($114.05) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>
Final Pot: $114.05
MP has Kd 9c (three of a kind, kings).
Hero has Ad 8d (flush, ace high).
SB has Jc Tc (two pair, kings and jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins $114.05.
I had 9 outs for the flush, 3 more for the inside straight draw, giving me a roughly 52% chance to hit the nuts (12/47 + 12/46). Actual pot when they both went all-in was $100.4 (I had the large stack and pushed), and so I effectively bet bet $35.35 (largest villain stack) to win $65.05 net profit.
Is that slightly negative EV because I'm betting $35.35 to win $65.05 or am i actually betting $35.35 to win $100.4?
Of course, there's always the chance of winning it right there, but those odds are not so great when 2 people have to fold.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)
BB ($88.35)
UTG ($39.10)
MP ($35.35)
Hero ($48.50)
SB ($29.70)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">SB (poster) raises to $1.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $1.25, Hero calls $1.25.
Flop: ($5.75) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $15</font>, Hero calls $46.75 (All-In), SB calls $22.95 (All-In), MP calls $18.60 (All-In).
Turn: ($114.05) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>
River: ($114.05) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>
Final Pot: $114.05
MP has Kd 9c (three of a kind, kings).
Hero has Ad 8d (flush, ace high).
SB has Jc Tc (two pair, kings and jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins $114.05.
I had 9 outs for the flush, 3 more for the inside straight draw, giving me a roughly 52% chance to hit the nuts (12/47 + 12/46). Actual pot when they both went all-in was $100.4 (I had the large stack and pushed), and so I effectively bet bet $35.35 (largest villain stack) to win $65.05 net profit.
Is that slightly negative EV because I'm betting $35.35 to win $65.05 or am i actually betting $35.35 to win $100.4?
Of course, there's always the chance of winning it right there, but those odds are not so great when 2 people have to fold.