River bet?

I've been playing at tables with good players lately to improve my game before a permanent move to 2/4.
This table was no different.
21% VPIP
9.1 PFR

Villian is a little too tight all round.
14/5.6/1.85

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: (11.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="green">Hero ??</font>

[cold_cash]

This looks a lot like AJ.

I think if he'll never bluff raise the river, but will call with QQ I would bet and fold. (FWIW, I think most players will pay off w/ QQ, even the tight ones, and even though there's nothing you could be holding they can beat.)

[_Kevin_]

Grunch. Since no one has responded I'll take a shot but I'm not sure myself. The most important thing to deciding how to play the river is narrowing down his possible holdings. He raised UTG but didn't cap. He like the flop (or bluffed at it) and then went to call down mode on the flop and he called the turn. The only hand I'm really worried about is AJs (this is consistent with his play so far). I suppose AK of clubs is possible but I don't see him leading out on the flop (unless he has a reason to belive you might fold pocket T's or 9's) and I would have expected a check raise to build the pot.

I think either QQ or KJs are his most likely holdings so I bet. If raised, I have to call because the pot is so big.

I'll be interested to hear how the better players would play it.

[imported_Reaction]

semi-drunk...


b\c KJ alot
mabye QJs

enough for AJ?

Edit: why am I not thinking AK or AQ?

Edit 2: B/F

Bet

[DCWildcat]

Bet. If he doesn't fold, we're almost certainly beaten by AJ or AA or some such mumbo. But checking/calling is ugly.

[DCWildcat]

[ QUOTE ]
semi-drunk...


b\c KJ alot
mabye QJs

[/ QUOTE ]

no villain in hell is raising that stuff in EP with them stats

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

If you can't fold to a river raise here you shouldn't bet.

That said I'd probably check and call because I would not be happy folding.

[cold_cash]

He's only going to bet when you're losing, but he might call when you're winning.

I think there's a strong chance this dude has QQ. AK is a good possibility. The flop action doesn't seem right for AA. I'm thikning bet/fold&gt;check/call&gt;bet/call&gt;check/fold. I think check/call is good because you could induce a bluff from QQ and TT. Bet/fold is strong because there are more AK hands.

[imported_Reaction]

[ QUOTE ]
no villain in hell is raising that stuff in EP with them stats

[/ QUOTE ]
yep... missed that.