FT Hand - Hero is a thief

[Sam T.]

Final table of a 180-man SnG on Stars. As per usual the table is trying to fold its way up the ladder, but some grumbling about my aggression is making its way into the chat box. ("I hate you." "One of these times...")

Ordinarily I would c-bet this, but I'd been pretty active, so I wanted to change things up. The turn play is the most interesting, I think, but would be happy to hear other opinions.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t54200)
BB (t63670)
UTG (t46868)
MP (t24351)
Hero (t80911)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t6000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls t4000.

Flop: (t10400) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t10400) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t8000</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t32000</font>, Hero calls t24000.

River: (t74400) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t25570 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t25570.

Final Pot: t125540

[MLG]

yikes. just check behind on the turn and call a river bet. dont jeopardize your chip stack like this building a monster pot with 1 very meh pair.

[Pat Southern]

I'd bet the flop, most of the time a 2nd stack wont want to tangle with bigstack unless he flopped something good. After checking the flop I'd check behind on the turn. If I had bet the turn it would be because I was planning on checking behind on the river and folding to a checkraise on the turn. Since I dont like doing that I check behind on the turn and make a value bet if checked to on river. Call a decent sized river bet.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
yikes. just check behind on the turn and call a river bet. dont jeopardize your chip stack like this building a monster pot with 1 very meh pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? There's no reason at all to think Hero is behind and there are a lot of hands Villain might call with (draws, overcards, little pairs), Getting checkraised off the best hand isn't horrible b/c the draws that will checkraise have a lot of outs and most of the hands that checkraise have him crushed. Whatever he had Villain played it oddly. I think a bet is the best play given the flop action and turn check, and after the checkraise it's an easy fold.

I bet and, if called, check the river behind unimproved most of the time.

Edit - had Hero bet the flop, I would agree with a turn check.

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no reason at all to think Hero is behind and there are a lot of hands Villain might call with (draws, overcards, little pairs), Getting checkraised off the best hand isn't horrible b/c the draws that will checkraise have a lot of outs and most of the hands that checkraise have him crushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Checking the turn and calling/betting the river exploits all the things you point out, while getting rid of the risk of building a big pot.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There's no reason at all to think Hero is behind and there are a lot of hands Villain might call with (draws, overcards, little pairs), Getting checkraised off the best hand isn't horrible b/c the draws that will checkraise have a lot of outs and most of the hands that checkraise have him crushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Checking the turn and calling/betting the river exploits all the things you point out, while getting rid of the risk of building a big pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of hands that call the turn don't call the river.

Plus, there's a significant chance Villain has a hand like QJ that he's trying to check-fold if we would just let him.

Edit: I suppose it is tempting for Villain to bluff after we check behind twice, but I don't think he tries it often enough given that a lot of river cards could scare him as much as us and he has to think we call an 8K bet with a lot of hands after he checks twice.

[reecelights]

Maybe it's pretty basic thinking, but based on the Chat you quoted, I think you are behind to a slow-played overpair or set here. Best case scenario you are against AdKd and are a 3-1 favorite, but I think you're behind.

In the heat of the moment, however, I'm not sure I wouldn't think he was putting a move on me to try to put me in my place. But in a sterile environment, it appears you're in trouble.

Or is my thinking flawed?

[MLG]

so, you think there are a lot of hands that we are ahead of that would call the turn bet, but would then check fold the river if we checked behind on the turn? maybe some weak draws...but there are more hands that we are ahead of that we can encourage to take a shot at us. you are right that we may let J10/JQ type hand hits but i think thats outweighed by encouraging bluffs..

here's a good question, if the guy has over cards, how often does he need to bluff when he misses in order for it to be right for us to check behind?

[KneeCo]

I believe his turn raise. Given that you guys are 1-2 and
you think these guys want to make top 3 money, I'd give him credit. I'd probably fold, and try to change gears to take advantage of my maniac image.

That being said, if you're going to call the turn, you should just push (even though you almost certainly have zero FE), because you'll pretty much have to pay him off on the river if he has a made hand, but you'll be giving him the chance to keep that extra 25k if he's running a semi-bluff and misses.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
so, you think there are a lot of hands that we are ahead of that would call the turn bet, but would then check fold the river if we checked behind on the turn? maybe some weak draws...but there are more hands that we are ahead of that we can encourage to take a shot at us. you are right that we may let J10/JQ type hand hits but i think thats outweighed by encouraging bluffs..

here's a good question, if the guy has over cards, how often does he need to bluff when he misses in order for it to be right for us to check behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Besides the overcards, there's T9, 65, 54, diamonds, a weaker 7 or 66-44 that might get scared off by a broadway river (or may make it harder for you to value bet). J of diamonds on the river is the classic beat you or kill your action card, and there are many similar cards.

I'll agree, though, that your overcards bluff induce question is key and could tip me to being wrong. Have you done the math already?

Edit: worth noting here that JT/J9 have ten outs and T9 has 14, so in terms of pure overcard hands we're only talking about QJ-Q9, AQ-A9. Also, we have his kings reverse dominated, which is a slight push towards a check.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe it's pretty basic thinking, but based on the Chat you quoted, I think you are behind to a slow-played overpair or set here. Best case scenario you are against AdKd and are a 3-1 favorite, but I think you're behind.

In the heat of the moment, however, I'm not sure I wouldn't think he was putting a move on me to try to put me in my place. But in a sterile environment, it appears you're in trouble.

Or is my thinking flawed?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think the chat makes it a little more likely check-check, check equals a trap. He's waiting for aggressive guy to hang himself. Although betting into aggressive guy is probably the better line - we should have gotten off the hook pretty cheap here.

But monsters don't appear just because Villain wants to trap us, and a check is usually just a check. Once he checkraises the turn, I think we're way behind his range, and it's time to fold.

[MLG]

no, but lets do some simple calulating. there's 10k in the pot, now lets say that he bets 8k on the river when he hits (thats a big bet, but thats what hero bet so ill just use that). villain hits 6/42 and the time he hits it costs us 18k (10k in the pot + 8k we call). (6/42)(18)=2.6.

My gut says we make more than that, as its a small amount, but my pizza just got here and im hungry so im aborting the math.

[Sam T.]

Okay, here's how I thought things out during the hand:

Preflop: Hey, I have two cards. Raise. When he cold-called I figured he had something, probably a couple of high cards. Given the blinds, any made hand was probably pushing here. In any case I wasn't too worried here.

Flop: Villain checks. Again, up to this point I'd been autobetting every flop, and didn't want to get CRed here.

Turn: Hey, a pair! Villain checks. Okay, what does that tell me about his hand? First, it says that the flop missed him entirely. Top pair or an overpair might go for the CR once, but there's no way he is going to risk a second free card. By this logic, I'm ahead, right? So make a standard c-bet, one street late.

Villain CRs: Again, I'm pretty sure I'm ahead here, and I've got the villain drawing to six outs at most. Agreed I should have just gotten my chips in here, but I called.

River: He pushes. 4:1 on my call no brainer.

Villain had ATo.

Where this really paid off, was Shania. The table went nuts, and one player said, "Okay, no bluffing."

[mlagoo]

wow... after your turn call, villians river push is really bad /images/graemlins/frown.gif