Gambler's Fallacy-->Can I Call?

[jsnipes28]

I openraised on the button w/ 99 two orbits ago and he reraised to 20 and i folded. Last orbit i openraised the button w/ AQs to 4 and he reraised to 20 and i folded. And now this hand. I decided to call preflop because he is surely reraising me with less than AA,KK here. That being said i really hate him open-pushing the flop. But since he reraised preflop, indicative of great strength, and i called also indicating strength i don't see why he would be trying to push me out if he has AA,KK. I am playing with villain on another table and he seems to be a decent player (he's up at least) and hasn't done anything extremely out of line except his constant re-raising of my obvious blind-stealing attempts.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) 2+2 converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter) /images/graemlins/cool.gif

MP ($135.70)
CO ($81.15)
Hero ($113.45)
SB ($88.90)
BB ($158.40)
UTG ($24.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $20</font>, Hero calls $16.

Flop: ($40.50) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $138.4 (All-In)</font>

[talcum]

I'd say the hands you're raising with aren't blind stealing attempts though he obviously thinks they are since he has come over the top every time. I don't think it is indicative of strength at all. The first time you might let it go but I would probably push over the top with AQ and definitely with the tens preflop against this guy.

[jsnipes28]

I was making a funny when i said that i was making obvious blind-stealing moves.
What's your rationale for pushing preflop? He's folding all hands that i am beating and calling with all hands that are beating me. This villain is not a maniac from what i have seen.
Edit: Berge, do you think a pretty decent player is trying to push me off of my hand here? Could this be AK, AQ whos pissed he didnt hit?

[aces_dad]

If he folds a worse hand then you win 20 and he stops re-raising your button opens. This is not a bad result given the recent history.

[Wayfare]

Given your history I don't mind making it $55 prelflop and folding to a raise.

[Guin]

To answer the question of calling I would have to say no. He could have Axs and has the flush draw and potentially two overcards. I believe that it would be +ev for him if you do call.... assuming he has the flush draw and two overcards.

I agree with Wayfare that the place to play the hand was preflop with a reraise but I would make it about 70 and I call a push.

I wonder how many other times this player has reraised to 20 preflop to any other player. Could you be labelled as weak tight or fishy to him? Overall what is your table image?

Guin

[FreakDaddy]

Considering the history, I stick it all-in pre-flop. He could be setting you up for this point, but I don't mind taking that chance here. As played, I fold the flop, although I don't like it.

[4_2_it]

You are going to have to pick a spot to make a stand against this guy. If he is doing this every time, then his range of hands is wide. This is a great flop for TT. You are only an underdog to two spade overcards. Hold your nose if you must, but call.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
I was making a funny when i said that i was making obvious blind-stealing moves.
What's your rationale for pushing preflop? He's folding all hands that i am beating and calling with all hands that are beating me. This villain is not a maniac from what i have seen.
Edit: Berge, do you think a pretty decent player is trying to push me off of my hand here? Could this be AK, AQ whos pissed he didnt hit?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's aware of your play, and now you're telling him that you can't keep coming over the top of you. Saying he's not bad, by over defending his blinds doesn't appear like he's good either. In fact I would have pushed with AQ, but that's just me.

[Delphin]

Ewww, I don't see how you can call. He may be on AK or AQ thinking his fold equity + gutshot + pair outs are good here against an overpair (he might rule out QQ-AA since you didn't reraise on the flop). He seems to have it in for you, so just wait until he does this and you have something better than an overpair.

The question I'm interested in is how you play the next hand against him when he does this. Is knowing he is capable of putting you to this decision on the flop enough to reraise all in preflop with TT next time?

[teamdonkey]

villain has hero covered so the bet isn't as big as it seems. With the history between you two i'm probably calling this.

[talcum]

I guess my rationale is that he is playing with you and you are reinforcing that he can get you out of the pot with any sort of bluster. It is a good point that he may only fold worse hands but I say its not bad taking his $20 now. If he has QJ vs. your tens, you are not too far ahead. He obviously doesn't have a hand every time you have one on the button. He might also think your trying to resteal and call with something like a lower pair but probably not at this point since you've folded twice to this move already.

[ QUOTE ]
He seems to have it in for you, so just wait until he does this and you have something better than an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're not willing to play back at him until you have 2 pair or more, then he has you right where he wants you.

[poboy]

[ QUOTE ]
What's your rationale for pushing preflop? He's folding all hands that i am beating and calling with all hands that are beating me.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a bad thing. While you do likely have the best hand pf, after the flop it will be difficult to know where you stand with either of those hands. Also I believe you will fold out some of his better hands along with the hands that would basically be coinflips. This will also make him a little more careful about reraising you. It would appear he has targeted you as an easy mark, you can't let that happen. JMO

Although I wouldn't feel good about laying this down, the "Don't Go Broke w/ a Pair" rule has to go into effect.

I liken this situation to a football game in which one team keeps trying to go deep on the other. If you're on defense, as you are, what do you do?

You drop back your defensive backs and give up the short stuff and wait patiently for your opponent to make a mistake.

You're still one of the bigger stacks on the table, I don't see risking it all on this hand. What's the rush? Wait until you can do it on your terms.

[sting]

If you are not going to play back at him with TT on that flop after calling his raise and your history, you need to leave the table. It's the only way to avoid marginal decisions against someone who is representing the preflop nuts every time you raise a hand. My advice, humble as it is, is either push or leave before this hand happens.

[4_2_it]

Those who are replying fold and wait for a monster are offering you death by a thousand cuts. If you continuously fold to his aggression and then all of a sudden push do you think he is going to call? Nope.

The only way to cower a bully is to punch him in the nose. If you miss and he throttles you, just dust yourself off and get right back in there.

[ QUOTE ]
Those who are replying fold and wait for a monster are offering you death by a thousand cuts. If you continuously fold to his aggression and then all of a sudden push do you think he is going to call? Nope.

The only way to cower a bully is to punch him in the nose. If you miss and he throttles you, just dust yourself off and get right back in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree w/ what you're saying, but his opportunity (which he missed) to say "Enough!" occurred on the pre-flop. He has already shown weakness in the hand by only calling.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Those who are replying fold and wait for a monster are offering you death by a thousand cuts. If you continuously fold to his aggression and then all of a sudden push do you think he is going to call? Nope.

The only way to cower a bully is to punch him in the nose. If you miss and he throttles you, just dust yourself off and get right back in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree w/ what you're saying, but his opportunity (which he missed) to say "Enough!" occurred on the pre-flop. He has already shown weakness in the hand by only calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

But his showing weakness doesn't change villain's hand. Just because villain is betting like he has AA doesn't mean he does. I agree that I would have popped him pre-flop, but this is a great flop for TT and if hero is behind now he was behind pre-flop.

Villain actually has a method to his madness and is probably not a total moron. He doesn't want a call and he is banking that the flop missed hero (since it will most of the time).

[PoBoy321]

Given your history, I see villain playing AK, AQ, probably some worse hands, as well as PP 77-99 like this. I call this in heartbeat and if he has you beat, he has you beat. You have to make a stand against him at some point and can't just keep folding. You need to see what hands he has when he makes these plays.

[jsnipes28]

[ QUOTE ]
Given your history, I see villain playing AK, AQ, probably some worse hands, as well as PP 77-99 like this. I call this in heartbeat and if he has you beat, he has you beat. You have to make a stand against him at some point and can't just keep folding. You need to see what hands he has when he makes these plays.

[/ QUOTE ]

I talked myself into a call and the turn and river bricked. He shows AK, instantly re-buys and i drag in a healthy pot. I see i should have re-popped him preflop. I'm looking forward to playing with this villain again to see what happens.

[wdeadwyler]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Given your history, I see villain playing AK, AQ, probably some worse hands, as well as PP 77-99 like this. I call this in heartbeat and if he has you beat, he has you beat. You have to make a stand against him at some point and can't just keep folding. You need to see what hands he has when he makes these plays.

[/ QUOTE ]

I talked myself into a call and the turn and river bricked. He shows AK, instantly re-buys and i drag in a healthy pot. I see i should have re-popped him preflop. I'm looking forward to playing with this villain again to see what happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are being RO here. I dont think you should have repopped him preflop with 1010, because he isnt 4betting, he is calling or folding. Id rather take a flop of his reraise and see what happens from there. If you are a good player you shouldnt be looking to do a lot of preflop raising and reraising, you should be looking to take flops and outplay your opponents when your edge is biggest.