pot odds and raising on the turn

I have a question on pot odds and when it is OK to raise.

This is the hand that sparked the question:

I'm playing a 10 player limit ring game. I'm Cut Off Man and get delt Ah Ks. "Big Stick," I think to myself. "Not bad" (Although to REALLY be Big Stick AK has to be suited.) There are four callers when it gets around to me. I raise, and the Dealer folds. One of the callers also folds but the other three call.

The Flop comes 4h Th 8h. "Holy Macaroni! I've got the nut flush draw!" /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

The first player bets and the other two call. Now it's to me with 12 small bets in the pot.

I think to myself that the odds of making a flush draw, Flop to River, are ~2:1 and the pot is giving me 12:1. Then I think if I raise here, I'm still getting 6:1 pot odds, way better than the odds of hitting my flush. I raise and all three other players call.

Was this a mistake here? I'm thinking about it and thinking about it, and I think I'm OK so far.

Turn comes 3s. It's big bet time now. First player bets and the other two call. I'm looking at 4:1 to hit my flush on the River. A call will give me 11:1 pot odds. I should call, no brainer right?

I start thinking that a raise here will give me 5.5:1 pot odds, still better than my 4:1 drawing odds. Should I call or should I raise?

As I'm thinking this I'm not sure if raising the right move. Then I look at that Ace of Hearts in my pocket, I hear a sexy voice whisper in my ear "Nut Flush" and I raise.

Was this a mistake? In my head I was thinking that anyone with a heart was also drawing to a flush, but I had the ace. Sure there were two straight draws on the table, but I was drawing to a flush, not a straight.

Anyway, I raise and all three other players call. The pot is getting huge.

River came 2d. No flush for me. /images/graemlins/frown.gif First player checked, the next folded and the guy to my left bet. He showed Ad 5h, and ended up taking the pot with a 5-high straight. A 5-high straight... That's also know as the "idiot straight." A friggin' idiot straight!

Anyway, I've run that hand over and over in my mind (and my nightmares) and I keep thinking that, if I had to play that hand 100 times, I'd play it the exact same way pre-flop, post flop and post turn. My only question was calculating the pot odds based on a raise rather than a call. Was that a mistake or not?

[hobbsmann]

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I have a question on pot odds and when it is OK to raise.

This is the hand that sparked the question:

I'm playing a 10 player limit ring game. I'm Cut Off Man and get delt Ah Ks. There are four callers when it gets around to me. I raise, and the Dealer folds. One of the callers also folds but the other three call.

The Flop comes 4h Th 8h.

The first player bets and the other two call. Now it's to me with 12 small bets in the pot. I raise.

Was this a mistake here?

Turn comes 3s. First player bets and the other two call.

Should I call or should I raise?

Anyway, I raise and all three other players call.

River came 2d. No flush for me. /images/graemlins/frown.gif First player checked, the next folded and the guy to my left bet.

My only question was calculating the pot odds based on a raise rather than a call. Was that a mistake or not?

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FYP.

As for the question raising the flop is a no brainer because of your equity (you will make your flush ~33% of the time and thus ever bet put in the pot is effectively 1/3 is yours). Come the turn calling and raising have about the same EV given that 3 others are still in the hand and there is a chance that your over cards might be good and thus an ace or a king on the river will make you the best hand.

Basically you played the hand fine and you just happened not to hit on the river; [censored] happens get over it. Next time try and not make your post so dramatic, just cut to the details important to the hand in question.

[W. Deranged]

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Turn comes 3s. It's big bet time now. First player bets and the other two call. I'm looking at 4:1 to hit my flush on the River. A call will give me 11:1 pot odds. I should call, no brainer right?

I start thinking that a raise here will give me 5.5:1 pot odds, still better than my 4:1 drawing odds. Should I call or should I raise?

As I'm thinking this I'm not sure if raising the right move. Then I look at that Ace of Hearts in my pocket, I hear a sexy voice whisper in my ear "Nut Flush" and I raise.



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There is a giant error in your thinking here.

In situations when you are deciding whether to bet or raise for value (rather than to call), you need to consider whether you have above-average equity , not whether you have sufficient pot odds .

The point is that, when you raise this turn, you are choosing to put extra money in the pot . This only makes sense if the additional bets that you are putting in the pot are profitable. The fact that you could conceivably call two bets profitably here (getting like 11 to 2 or whatever) does not mean that it is correct to raise.

In order to determine whether it's correct to raise, don't compare the size of the total call+raise to the total pot size.

Instead, ask yourself the following question: Am I going to win more than my fair share of the extra bets that go into the pot ?

You have three opponents. Your nut flush outs give you about 20% equity. Your overcards might be good. Say they are worth about three outs. That's 12 outs total. That's slightly more than 25% equity. The average equity for the pot is equal to 100%/the number of players; so here it's 25%. In order for a raise to be correct, you need to be confident that your equity is above average .

We deduced that your equity is probably a little bit above 25% here, but notice that if you raise you might get three-bet and the pot might not have 3 opponents anymore. Because of that fact, your equity needs to be considerably higher than 25% to assure that raising is going to have value. I'd say you would want to assure like 35% to make a raise correct here.

So in my opinion calling is clearly better than raising, as raising is about equivalent to calling if everything breaks your way and is clearly worse if you get three-bet and some opponents fold.

[7stud]

Hi,

I think you have a couple of errors in your reasoning.

1)
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Now it's to me with 12 small bets in the pot.

I think to myself that the odds of making a flush draw, Flop to River, are ~2:1 and the pot is giving me 12:1.

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You are comparing apples to oranges there. It’s a little better than 2:1 to make your flush by the river. However, the current pot odds and the current call only apply to the next card, and it’s 4:1 to make your flush on the next card.

If the odds you are looking at are the odds of making your hand by the river, then you have to look at the total amount of money you will be required to put in the pot by the river. There are 12 small bets in the pot now, but if you anticipate your opponents will put in 2 big bets on the turn, then you will also have to put in a big bet on the turn to see the river. That means for 1 small bet now and 1 big bet on the turn, you will have a chance to win 12 small bets + 2 big bets(not taking into account any river bets you may collect). So, you will have to put in a total of 3 small bets to win 16 small bets to see the river, which means the pot is only offering you 5:1. Since it was 2:1 to make your flush by the river, you should still call.

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I think to myself that the odds of making a flush draw, Flop to River, are ~2:1 and the pot is giving me 12:1. Then I think if I raise here, I'm still getting 6:1 pot odds, way better than the odds of hitting my flush. I raise and all three other players call.

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If your raise alone is getting better odds than your odds of making the hand, then you should raise. For example, if there are 7 opponents and you anticipate that 5 of them will call your raise and it’s 4:1 odds against making your hand, then your raise will be matched by 5 calls, or in other words, you will be getting 5:1 on your raise. Since it’s only 4:1 against making your hand and you're getting paid 5:1 on your raise alone, you should raise.

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Turn comes 3s. It's big bet time now. First player bets and the other two call. I'm looking at 4:1 to hit my flush on the River. A call will give me 11:1 pot odds. I should call, no brainer right?

I start thinking that a raise here will give me 5.5:1 pot odds, still better than my 4:1 drawing odds. Should I call or should I raise?

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The maximum odds you could anticipate getting on your raise was 3:1(if all your opponents called), and since it was 4:1 against making your hand, your raise had a negative expected value. In other words, you are only getting paid 3:1 on the extra money you put in the pot.

If nothing else, this was an entertaining read.

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Your nut flush outs give you about 20% equity.

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Can you explain how to calculate this?

[JinX11]

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Your nut flush outs give you about 20% equity.

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Can you explain how to calculate this?

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9 cards give Hero the nut flush. There are 46 unseen cards on the turn. 9 divided by 46 is about 20%.

[Songwind]

Also, Ace to Five is the Wheel.

The idiot straight is the low end of the straight (89s and a TJQ board).

I have a question about equity here. If you are HU at the turn, then theoretically, you need better than 50% equity to raise according to your argument. Now if you have an overcard and four card flush draw heads up, and say your overcard outs are all clean, so that gives you 12 outs or 25% equity so you shouldn't raise, but I would think in a HU situation, you quite often would want to raise here. Do you need to adjust for HU situations or would you play be the same criteria no matter what.

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If nothing else, this was an entertaining read.

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You spiked it man. I laughed when I read the colorful and engaged storytelling and I laughed out loud (literally) when I read your comment. "Holy Macaroni, Big Stick!"

Blessed are the meak cause they shall inherit the earth.

[jat850]

The decision to bet out or raise is a decision that LOOKS FORWARD to the bets that should come in from that action. The decision to call LOOKS BACK at pot odds on whether to call or cold call. Looking forward after the turn card, you had too few players and too low a probability of drawing your winner to justify a raise. Conversely, the pot odds looking backwards were clearly present to make a call.

I recently capped a flop with just a good flush draw ( no board pairs either) because there were 5 other players coming along for the ride. My odds of drawing the nut flush was about 35%. My odds of winning would be slightly less than that. But for every $1 I put in the pot, $5 other dollars were going in as well. With about a 1/3 chance of winning, my flop raise made sense because i needed only 2 other players to call to have my raise be EV+.

I missed on the turn. Now my odds of drawing were about 20% and 2 people dropped out before the betting got to me. On the turn I did not raise because my odds of success had gone down AND I had lost future bets from the folders.

I hope this example makes the difference in the calculation between raising and calling easier for you.

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I have a question about equity here. If you are HU at the turn, then theoretically, you need better than 50% equity to raise according to your argument. Now if you have an overcard and four card flush draw heads up, and say your overcard outs are all clean, so that gives you 12 outs or 25% equity so you shouldn't raise, but I would think in a HU situation, you quite often would want to raise here. Do you need to adjust for HU situations or would you play be the same criteria no matter what.

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Quite often, HU and short handed pots have a certain amount of Fold equity that you can add to your hand equity to move your play from call to raise.
You also have to factor the chance that your hand is ahead into the mix.

But the requirement of 50% or fair share stays the same.

[7stud]

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I have a question about equity here. If you are HU at the turn, then theoretically, you need better than 50% equity to raise according to your argument.

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If you are heads up then your raise can only be matched by exactly one caller, which means you are getting 1:1 on your raise. Therefore, you need a hand that is better than 1:1 to win, which is the same thing as saying your hand must be favored to win or that you have a better than 50% chance of winning.