NHL - Tuesday 12/20/05

[TheRake]

I am thinking about taking all the home teams -1.5 Goals tonight with the exception of taking Ottawa -1.5 on the road. Cast a wide net and hope for at least 3 wins. The key would be winning either Carolina or Nashville at +200. I think either one of these is possible.

Current odds stand at:
Carolina -1.5(+200)
NY Rangers -1.5(+183)
Detroit -1.5(-123)
Ottawa -1.5(+142)
Nashville -1.5(+200)
Phoenix -1.5(+115)
San Jose -1.5(+170)

I would take them all for .5 units except the Detroit game would be taken at .62 units.


Thoughts?

[CCx]

I tried this for a while, doing it every night.

I lost quite a few units on it (granted I was only doing home teams at +170 or above and my units were $20 for testing this system), but still... maybe good for you one night if you happen to like the home team matchups, but I wouldn't make a habit out of it.

I'm waiting on who is in goal for TB. Leaning toward Tb, as they have beaten Car twice already.
Like OTT, Nash.
Nyr, Phx are iffy to me.
Det is meh. I don't laying the 1.5 and odds.
Don't like SJ at all.

[20Five]

I agree with the CCx.. was going to mention his postings but he beat me to it while I was working out a formula..

anyways, I think playing this many games all at -1.5 is just a bad idea, dont be fooled by all those nice fat +1xx numbers..

A lot of nights when playing either NHL or MLB, I'll find two dogs that I like playing the ML on, and play them both.. kind of casting a 2 game net, knowing if I split my two games then I still won on the night. Im pretty sure even just this habit is -EV, but its what I like to do. Gives me more action, and more winning nights, granted there are nights that both lose and I lose twice.

Also, I still hold the fact in hockey, similiar to baseball, that if you dont like the ML price, then chances are the puckline or runline isnt that much better. Sure there are times when this may not be the case, but I think CCx's running experiment kind of portrays this concept.

Will look at tonights games in a bit, finishing up some christmas shopping! GL and happy holidays /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[TheRake]

Yeah, this would just be a one night thing. I couldn't really find any dogs I liked tonight, so this was just to have some fun. I could just take a night off, but that would just be crazy talk /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[TheRake]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm waiting on who is in goal for TB. Leaning toward Tb, as they have beaten Car twice already.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Grahame is in net for TB tonight.

I'm really gunshy right now since I'm on a horrible losing streak.

But I'd say there could be value in Colorado +120, Tampa +130. Also, teams usually play well with a new bench boss...so the Devils at +145 is worth a look.

Whether or not I'll bet any of them...I just don't know.

[TheRake]

Meh, I decided against my original post. I went with Ottawa -1.5(+142) and TB/Car o6(-115).