10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion

Can someone who's good with statistical analysis look at this? In my observed hands database, I came across this player who's getting crushed after 11500 hands....yet his W$SD is an amazing 58.29!!

I realize his WtSD is a little low, but how is this possible??

If you need more of his statistics, let me know.

http://img369.imageshack.us/img369/3393/wsd3he.png

He this could be me /images/graemlins/tongue.gif
I dunno, but I guess he's losing alot of big pots.

[Entity]

He's folding way too much. WtSD only 31.6. Accounts for the higher W$SD and the losses.

[intensify1]

I also believe his PFR is a tad low along with blind steal.

[jba]

variance / selection bias

[marching_on_together]

I would be surprised if this guy is a long term loser as his stats don't appear to be too far off. I imagine he's not a happy bunny at present though.

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He's folding way too much. WtSD only 31.6. Accounts for the higher W$SD and the losses.

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Thanks Rob,

After you said this, I looked at his folded to river bet and saw 47.6%! I am still surprised by the logic inconsistencies....and wondering how it's possible for someone reasonable enough to play everything else (VPIP, PFR, Folded SB & BB to steal, ASB, W$WSF) so close to optimally, yet fold THAT many winners on the end.

IMO, no one would play that masochistically unless they're trying to lose.

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He's folding way too much. WtSD only 31.6. Accounts for the higher W$SD and the losses.

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Thanks Rob,

After you said this, I looked at his folded to river bet and saw 47.6%! I am still surprised by the logic inconsistencies....and wondering how it's possible for someone reasonable enough to play everything else (VPIP, PFR, Folded SB & BB to steal, ASB, W$WSF) so close to optimally, yet fold THAT many winners on the end.

IMO, no one would play that masochistically unless they're trying to lose.

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These are almost precisely my stats, though my BB/100 is on the plus side. I fold too often. I'm working on seeing more showdowns, but I have a hard time seeing the showdown when I get check/raised on the turn when I've got AJ that missed. I'm trying to play cheap (1/2, 2/4) HU sessions to get more familiarity with playing missed/weak hands.

I'm guessing this player is normally a .5BB/100 type winner an he's having a bad run. Last night, first 3 hands I flopped trips, trips, nut straight, only to lose each time to a runner/runner. Those 3 hands put me nearly 20BB hole right off the bat. When you're a .5BB/100 winner, a sequence like that can put you in the hole for a loooonnnnggggg time.

Variance sucks.

Is your W$SD normally in the very high 50s when running bad and in the mid 60s when running good?

[rory]

If you are having a hard time seeing the showdown when you get check-raised on the turn with your AJ that missed, then stop betting the turn with your AJ that missed if you might get check-raised.

[marching_on_together]

I don't think you can draw those conclusions from this sample size

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Is your W$SD normally in the very high 50s when running bad and in the mid 60s when running good?

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No, my W$SD is always about 52%. That's one of my difficulties, trying to figure out how to get to showdown with A-high (or small pockets) without killing my W$SD.

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If you are having a hard time seeing the showdown when you get check-raised on the turn with your AJ that missed, then stop betting the turn with your AJ that missed if you might get check-raised.

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Yea, I'm betting the turn much less often lately with missed overcards. Consequently, I'm seeing showdown for only 1.5BB (flop and river bets) and picking off more river bluffs by aggressive players.

It's a work in progress... The turn has historically been my most aggressive street (3.8), but even passive 10/20 players are trickier post flop than most 5/10 players and they use my over-aggression against me.

[sammy_g]

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Is your W$SD normally in the very high 50s when running bad and in the mid 60s when running good?

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No, my W$SD is always about 52%.

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/images/graemlins/confused.gif Really? This stat varies wildly for me from session to session depending on how I am running.

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Is your W$SD normally in the very high 50s when running bad and in the mid 60s when running good?

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No, my W$SD is always about 52%.

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/images/graemlins/confused.gif Really? This stat varies wildly for me from session to session depending on how I am running.

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Mine is a consistent 55 long term. Running bad, it's 52 and running good it's 57.

I started this thread to try and get some answers about the datamined guy. It's really amazing that his W$SD is 58 when running bad !

[jba]

"It's really amazing that his W$SD is 58 when running bad !"

not winning your share of pots is not the only way to run bad. Getting a whole bunch of very very good second best hands (and your opponents not getting them) will lose you a ton of money as well.

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Can someone who's good with statistical analysis look at this? In my observed hands database, I came across this player who's getting crushed after 11500 hands....yet his W$SD is an amazing 58.29!!

I realize his WtSD is a little low, but how is this possible??

[/ QUOTE ]

More than likely, coupled with not being able to get to showdown enough, he's only winning small pots at showdown while getting rivered for all the big ones.

Other than the WSD% these stats look a lot like mine. What's the screenname?

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[Catt]

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After you said this, I looked at his folded to river bet and saw 47.6%! I am still surprised by the logic inconsistencies....and wondering how it's possible for someone reasonable enough to play everything else (VPIP, PFR, Folded SB & BB to steal, ASB, W$WSF) so close to optimally, yet fold THAT many winners on the end.

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The seemingly high FTRB and high losses with a high W$SD can also come about by making too many loose flop peels (which lead to turn peels) which lead to good river folds, i.e., loose flop peel, turn gives him a FD or OESD or gutter with an over - whatever - it gives him something that makes calling the turn seem reasonable given the pot size at that point, then river misses. This sort of playing error can be quite costly since the bad flop peel costs bets on both the flop and turn.

That said, I agree that he is most likely folding way too much -- a WTSD like that only VPIPing 25% seems awfully odd.

And that said, I'll repeat what someone else said: selection bias and sample size.

I wasn't sure if it was OK to list the name, but if he happens to be a 2+2er, this thread may help.

It's HDPYMT06

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I'm really surprised people are jumping to these conclusions about WSD/W$SD and "Folded to a River Bet"...

If you raise on the button, have 2 or 3 callers, miss and bet the flop, check the turn, and fold the river then these numbers are the result.

I don't think it's a matter of folding winners at all. Simply running really bad.

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[ArturiusX]

That looks like my stats, whats his name?

[tolbiny]

No worries- i have 7k hands on him and hes running at 3.15 bb/100 with a 60% w$@sd

HDPYMT06

[bobbyi]

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HDPYMT06

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Over 7k hands, I have this guy's showdown stats as 34.6/56.4.
EDIT: Ridiculously, in that time I have him up $26.

Bump for Krishan to look at this guy's misc stats. Anything significant?

http://img458.imageshack.us/img458/2073/misc1ox.png