Do you bet river with little 2 pair into 5 players?

[ResidentParanoid]

LL online hand. Loose, passive table, with no real read on anyone. I am in the BB with 2/forums/images/icons/club.gif, 3/forums/images/icons/spade.gif.

5 limpers, SB calls, I check. 7 players to the flop.

Flop comes: 2/forums/images/icons/heart.gif, A/forums/images/icons/spade.gif, 3/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif. SB checks, I bet, EP calls, MP1 raises , MP2 folds, LP calls 2, button calls 2, SB calls 2, I 3-bet, EP calls 2 more, MP1 calls 1, LP comes alive and caps it at 4 bets, everyone calls.

Turn is T/forums/images/icons/club.gif [2/forums/images/icons/heart.gif, A/forums/images/icons/spade.gif, 3/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif]: Checked to me, I bet, everyone calls.

River is 5/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif [T/forums/images/icons/club.gif, 2/forums/images/icons/heart.gif, A/forums/images/icons/spade.gif, 3/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif]: Checked to me, do you bet here? Why or why not?

[J.R.]

Check. You bet into a flop capper on the turn, after betting and three-betting the flop, so your opponents were likely to put you on a very strong hand (perhaps a set or 56). This would tend to mean that you are less likely to be raised on the river, but a the same time, what are the chances you are good? Everyone called the turn, the gutshot got there on the river, and there is no draw with which your opponents could have been pumping on the flop.

If you bet you can safely fold to a raise after the strength you have shown, but if you check you can safely fold to a bet and a raise as well in my opinion. I can't see a better two pair folding on the river. It may be weak but I wouldn't bet into all those opponents on the river.

[RockLobster]

The pot's too big to fold to a single bet, so I'd bet and fold to a raise, expecting to see A2s or A3s take the pot.

[ResidentParanoid]

Board: 2/forums/images/icons/heart.gif A/forums/images/icons/spade.gif 3/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif T/forums/images/icons/club.gif 5/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

It is checked through on the river and here are the other hands:

SB : 5/forums/images/icons/heart.gif 2/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

Me : 2/forums/images/icons/club.gif 3/forums/images/icons/spade.gif

EP : A/forums/images/icons/club.gif 6/forums/images/icons/heart.gif

MP1 : 7/forums/images/icons/club.gif A/forums/images/icons/heart.gif

LP : 5/forums/images/icons/club.gif Q/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

button : 6/forums/images/icons/club.gif A/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

I didn't think my two pair was good, and I didn't think better hands would fold, so I checked. SB takes it down with his mini-two pair (but bigger than mine). Look at all that garbage out there! Not a single legit pre-flop calling hand.

[ResidentParanoid]

I am definitely going to call single bets on the river.

Is it worth betting here? I decided not (see results). With so many callers the whole way, I think another 2 pair is almost surely out there (at least in my experience). If I can see the showdown free, I think it's better to check.

[RockLobster]

I am definitely going to call single bets on the river.

If I'm going to call a bet, I usually figure it's worth betting (I honestly didn't even consider that it might get checked around).

Seeing the results, a bet MIGHT have even won you the pot (not to be results-oriented, or anything /forums/images/icons/grin.gif).

[Michael Davis]

What am I missing and why was Q5 in postflop?

[eh923]

Jeez. I was really disappointed with your opponents' cards. I figured LP was slowplaying bottom set (which isn't much smarter than limping in with Q5o), but feared you had a straight when you bet the turn.

BTW - Your river check was 100% correct...even before seeing the results!

[Dynasty]

Jeez. I was really disappointed with your opponents' cards.

When six opponents limp on your big blind, this is what they're going to have. Do you think they're being dealt AJo, T9s, 44, KQo, A6s, and 75s all the time?

This is why you raise in the blinds with hands like AQo and JJ despite HEPFAP's reccomendations against it.

[ResidentParanoid]

Although the hands were garbage, I'm not surprised by many of them. This hand says a lot about LL online players:

All three aces were out there, all with garbage kickers. When an ace flops, 9 times out of 10 someone limped in with at least an ace. I was punishing those guys on the flop with my two pair. By the time the river comes, and they're all still there, Aces-over is pretty likely.

SB will complete with anything, I guess. And couldn't release his pair of twos/gutshot on the flop? I love this game.

LP chases his gutshot all the way, I love him, too.

I lost the hand but these tables are great. I think aggression early is best with my vulnerable hand, but going quietly at the end is the best move.

[ResidentParanoid]

Checking around is not that unusual in these games. If I remember right, there wasn't much aggression at all (except from me) at this table. LP flop cap must have been a mis-click, right?

There is NO WAY a bet folds all of them (or many of them). You were kidding, right?

[ResidentParanoid]

This is why you bet at this table.

[RockLobster]

There is NO WAY a bet folds all of them (or many of them). You were kidding, right?

No, but it's possible that that measly little winning hand might have folded. I'm thinking that your turn check (that was checked thru) looked like a missed c/r, so it's pretty natural to bet the river no matter what hits.

EDIT: I'm getting my hands mixed up, you bet the turn and all called. I still like the river bet, because I'm willing to call a single bet (and I didn't think it'd get checked thru).

[Dynasty]

When an ace flops, 9 times out of 10 someone limped in with at least an ace.

Why don't we just throw out all the rules of probability? We can just pretend that somebody always has a big hand.

If it's important, if 9 players limp to you in the big blind with you holding a non-Ace hand and the flop comes Ace-high, there is about a 77.5% chance that somebody is holding an Ace. With fewer limpers, the chances go down.

[ResidentParanoid]

I'm mainly worried that Ax (A2, A3, A4, A5, AT) is out there and has me beat. I don't think I can fold them with a bet. It turns out A6 (twice) and A7 were there and I dodged that bullet.

The ever-dangerous 2-5 ran me down. I suppose it's possible he would have folded to the river bet, but if he was that good, why did he call the whole way?

[ResidentParanoid]

Ok, mis-stated. In this situation 9 out of 10 times someone withstood all that flop action with an ace. Better?

[RockLobster]

No clue.

Exluding the results, I would likely have bet the river and folded to a raise (and as we both said, pretty much expecting to lose to Aces up)... but holding out hope that my hand might take it with a bet.

If the pot were 1/2 the size I would let it check through.

This is a very interesting hand, nice post.

[eh923]

I agree completely. Despite my LL experience, the Q5o was still a surprise, but the remaining hands weren't.

The main thing is that you hit it right on the head when you thought baby two pair had no realistic shot of holding up with that board. Discretion is the better part of valor!

[ResidentParanoid]

One more thing: I'm guessing that your 77.5% chance is for 9 random hands. Given that the 9 hands limped, the probability is higher.... that whole conditional probability thing.

[TBone]

I believe I read about this in HEPFAP last night. If my memory serves me correctly, the suggestion is that if you've concluded you're going to call a single bet on the river, you might as well bet. If it's raised, you can conclude your hand is beat and fold.

I agree you wouldn't have gotten everyone to fold, but you're only beat by one hand and your betting pattern has indicated the possible straight. The chance of you getting the winning hand to fold is there, (depending on the type of player he/she is) and the pot odds may be worthy of giving this a shot? A 4 is either going to raise or just call, possibly figuring on splitting the pot. Course, I've been wrong in every other post so far, but at least I got my response here from a reputable book. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

Loose is right! /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

T