Close one - counting outs excercise :)

[punter11235]

Ok.. Read HH, give yourself 20 second which you have for your decision on Party Poker and decide : allin or fold (Btw you are variance lover and you dont care about swings so EV EV EV and EV only no pussy "fold to reduce variance" answers).

***** Hand History for Game 3232566312 *****
$2000 PL Omaha - Tuesday, December 20, 07:53:21 EDT 2005
Table Table 70099 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 5: spiros777 ( $2799.50 )
Seat 8: CHUFFTY ( $2041.88 )
Seat 9: HERO ( $2156 )
Seat 1: canyonmoney ( $1874 )
canyonmoney posts small blind [$10].
spiros777 posts big blind [$20].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ A/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif ]
CHUFFTY folds.
HERO raises [$70].
canyonmoney folds.
spiros777 calls [$50].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif ]
spiros777 checks.
HERO bets [$148].
spiros777 raises [$592].
HERO calls [$444].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif ]
spiros777 bets [$1332].

Potsize is 1332 without his bet and you have 1494 more.

5 - 10 - 15 - 20 DECISION !

[BluffTHIS!]

Are you purposely not using a hand converter (though removing your own party screen name here), or do you not know where to find one and how to use it?

[punter11235]

I will use it another time. I went through some trouble with manually changing s/h/d/c to /images/graemlins/club.gif etc to make then easier to read I guess converter is much better.
Thanks for pointing this out.

EDIT: Also I dont consider including my opponents names bad etiquette. If this is considered not proper I will hide them next time

[fuzzbox]

Easy call right.
I counted your outs twice, and its about 1 million.

Pot laying 2:1, and you are good more often than that.

[punter11235]

I made a mistake with counting outs when making my decision so its probably not that close as I thought. I forgot that I had 10s so it make one out more. So basically its easy I think. Sorry for bothering you. During play I thought its really really close (also pot is not laying me full 2-1 if I go allin .. and if I dont its strange feeling to fold 120 more in like 4k pot /images/graemlins/smile.gif ).

[BluffTHIS!]

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: Also I dont consider including my opponents names bad etiquette. If this is considered not proper I will hide them next time

[/ QUOTE ]

The point about that I am about to make I have made in the past in the high stakes no limit forum, and lots of posters disagreed with me. But I will repeat them here.

I believe it is wrong to mention specific screen names either in a hand history or just in describing a situation for two reasons. The first is that I think it is disrespectful of players, who granted are mostly anonymous on the internet sites, but who should still be given some respect and not have their play dissected by name.

The second reason is that I believe it is highly detrimental to us. Such practices run the risk of cluing in the fish on their bad play if they happen to visit here only occasionally, and of cluing in good players about how other good players view and play against them. Both of these situations are -EV IMO.

The typical response in the nl forum was that giving the name of certain player enables posters to know immediately how they play if they themselves play at the same level. But I think that any good player should just as easily be able to describe the play of another regular opponent without using his name to do so.

Of course the rest of you can do what you like, but those are the reasons I occasionally comment on posts with unconverted hand histories or using a player's screen name.

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
I made a mistake with counting outs when making my decision so its probably not that close as I thought. I forgot that I had 10s so it make one out more. So basically its easy I think. Sorry for bothering you. During play I thought its really really close (also pot is not laying me full 2-1 if I go allin .. and if I dont its strange feeling to fold 120 more in like 4k pot /images/graemlins/smile.gif ).

[/ QUOTE ]

The 10 is most likely NOT an out.
3*A + 3*K + 3*Q + 4*9 + 9*/images/graemlins/spade.gif - K/images/graemlins/spade.gif - Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif -9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (double counted) = 18.

4 cards showing, you have 4 in hand. Remaining = 44. In order to get appropriate odds you need 1/3 of them. 44/3 = 14.3.

Villain most likely has JJ (maybe TT), so you can probably do the math with 42 cards left, giving you 14.

Alas - you might split sometimes if he has JJKQ or he might be holding a couple of your outs.

Even still, you call here, because he might not be doing so, and you have more outs than you need to call.

You are 26:18 to make your hand which is about 1.5:1 and you are getting 2:1.

If you give villain JJ, then you are 24:18.

[punter11235]

During the hand I forgot that I had 10s so counted only 17 outs (I assumed he had set and maybe one of my outs as JJxx may not play preflop so high card is probable).
I am slightly below 2-1 pot odds (I think its 1-1.8) and about 17-44 to hit which is 1-1.6 still its a call even with 17 outs.
During the hand I thought it closer. Now I see its easy call.
Btw I called and sucked out.

[Filip]

Have not read the responses but i am going for all in and it didnt take 20s it took .1s and i think that is a problem for me.

[Filip]

I have some thoughts on the flop play that involves this kind of hand.
How about not betting and take free card. Why this "weak" aproach you probably think, well here is my reasoning:

1) You bet and he folds - you win a small pot, positive metagame value

2) You bet and he calls - i have no clue, probably top set and wrapper.

3) You bet and he raises - will you not now find yourself commited in the pot and will have to continue to call if the turn doesnt pair? And you most likely are dog, problem is how big of one.

4) You check and have position on the turn meaning u can raise, check or fold depending on the card and hence get a higher EV and lower variance?

Thoughts?

[Zameus]

Sorry, I'm confused... you're all commenting on the flop play and not the turn play? The flush draw doesn't get picked up until the turn right? On the flop you only have a nice multi way straight draw but that's moot because you were the better not the caller anyway.

Also..19 outs right?

3(A) + 3(K) + 3(Q) + 4(Nines) + 9(spades)= 22 outs minus the 3 spades double counted= 19.

The ace isn't double counted as a spade.

There's only one card to come and 43 left in the deck right? That's 2.25 to 1 roughly... even assuming villian doesn't hold any of your outs (unlikely) you're only getting 1 to 1 on your money on the turn. How is that not a fold?

I must really be misreading this.

The guy probably has the top set JJ because of the pot reraise. That means your 1.5 to 1 dog on flop and 1.5 to 1 dog on turn.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I'm confused... you're all commenting on the flop play and not the turn play? The flush draw doesn't get picked up until the turn right? On the flop you only have a nice multi way straight draw but that's moot because you were the better not the caller anyway.

Also..19 outs right?

3(A) + 3(K) + 3(Q) + 4(Nines) + 9(spades)= 22 outs minus the 3 spades double counted= 19.

The ace isn't double counted as a spade.

There's only one card to come and 43 left in the deck right? That's 2.25 to 1 roughly... even assuming villian doesn't hold any of your outs (unlikely) you're only getting 1 to 1 on your money on the turn. How is that not a fold?

I must really be misreading this.

[/ QUOTE ]

19 is right to make a flush or straight, but the 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif is probably not an out, so you win 18/42 of the time (lets say the times you have another out or two, like the T, or the times he's straight bluffing or better a worse draw, balance with the times he has you blocked.) Since a lot of the hands that have a set have blockers/share some of your outs, it is probably better to be safe and say you have a little less than 18/42, so say 42% equity (instead of 43).

You have to push because the pot will be too big to fold for 100 more even with a pair of tens.

So you are putting in 1494 to win 1494*2+1332 = 4320.

.42*4320 = $1814, so pushing is the play.

If you like to think in terms of odds the pot is laying you 2-1 (roughly, exactly it's 2826:1494) and your odds against making the winner are ~ 1.35 to 1, or slightly worse than 24:18)

Edited to fix the math a bit.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
During the hand I forgot that I had 10s so counted only 17 outs (I assumed he had set and maybe one of my outs as JJxx may not play preflop so high card is probable).
I am slightly below 2-1 pot odds (I think its 1-1.8) and about 17-44 to hit which is 1-1.6 still its a call even with 17 outs.
During the hand I thought it closer. Now I see its easy call.
Btw I called and sucked out.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you negate board-pairing spades from your outs you can account for two more cards (the JJ or TT in his hand), so there are 42 unknown cards, not 44. 18 is the right number of outs too, as you noticed later, the 6 is the only bad spade.

[Zameus]

Thanks man, I did forget to factor in the 6 of spades. Also, I meant to say roughly 2:1 on your money but I think that was obvious. I don't know how the hell I figured 2.25 to 1 though. That came straight from my arse. My apologies.

[Filip]

I'll start a new thread so ill not hijack this one with my question in my 2nd post.