$11 K9o Button Lvl 6- autopush?

Seems correct, but wanted to hear from the experts. I have two reservations that made me wonder about this hand.
- still 6 players
- Big stack#2 in BB likely to call w/any 2

Are either of these reasons (or something I'm not thinking of) enough not to push this? Thanks!

NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee
Level:6 Blinds(100/200)
Total number of players : 6
Hero: ( $870 )
SB: ( $830 )
BB: ( $2035 )
UTG: ( $1670 )
MP: ( $2145 )
CO: ( $450 )
Level:6
Blinds(100/200)

Dealt to Hero on button [ K/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif ]
3 folds.

Hero ?

Push

Push

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems correct, but wanted to hear from the experts. I have two reservations that made me wonder about this hand.
- still 6 players
- Big stack#2 in BB likely to call w/any 2

[/ QUOTE ]

Want the good news? It doesn't matter. Let him call with anything from JJ+,AK+ to any two. It's unexploitable. Poooooosh.

Well, not quite. If SB calls between 11% and 46% and BB calls 100%, this is a -EV push. There are other calling combination that make it -EV.

Make it K9s and that's another story!

[tigerite]

Are you sure about that, I ran the numbers and it came back with no difference if the SB calls with some inbetween range. I'll have to check I suppose, but that doesn't seem right.

[tigerite]

Let's say SB calls with 12.5%

SB 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+

Hold = 11.8% (because we hold K9o, it affects it slightly)
Call = 11.8%

Our equity when called = 0.322788

BB Any two

Our equity when called = 0.578119

Hold = 100%
Call = 88.2% (because of SB affecting our range)


If we fold, EV = 0.1223
Push/win v SB EV = 0.2347
Push/lose v SB EV = 0.0063

Push/win v BB EV = 0.2222
Push/lose v BB EV = 0

[ 0.118 * ((0.2347 * 0.322788) + (0.0063 * 0.677212)) ] + [ 0.882 * ((0.578119 * 0.2222) + (0.421881 * 0)) ]
= [ 0.118 * (0.0757583436 + 0.0042664356) ] + [ 0.882 * 0.1284580418 ]
= [ 0.118 * 0.0800247792 ] + 0.1132999928676
= 0.0094429239456 + 0.1132999928676
= 0.1227429168132

Which is greater than 0.1223? Am I missing something?

[tigerite]

Or how about SB with 23%.. 22+,A2+,KJo+,K9s+,QJs

Our equity against that is 0.362847, SB holds it 23.6% of the time. This leaves BB calling the other 76.4%

[ 0.236 * ((0.2347 * 0.362847) + (0.0063 * 0.673153)) ] + [ 0.764 * ((0.578119 * 0.2222) + (0.421881 * 0)) ]
= [ 0.236 * (0.0851601909 + 0.0042408639) ] + [ 0.764 * 0.1284580418 ]
= [ 0.236 * 0.0894010548 ] + 0.1132999928676
= 0.0210986489328 + 0.1132999928676
= 0.1343986418004

Which is again greater than 0.1223.. by a lot!

I think you made a mistake somewhere..

I did make a mistake -- I had blinds of 75/150 instead of 100/200 -- but that only changes the SB range a bit.

With the OP's stack sizes and no blind discounting, SNGPT says this is a -EV push when SB calls 14%-40% and BB calls 100%.

For the specific case of SB calling 23% (22+,A2+,KJo+,K9s+,QJs), I get -0.3% EV.

[ QUOTE ]
[ 0.236 * ((0.2347 * 0.362847) + (0.0063 * 0.673153)) ] + [ 0.764 * ((0.578119 * 0.2222) + (0.421881 * 0)) ]

[/ QUOTE ]

0.362847 + 0.673153 = 1.036, but those two numbers should add to 1. You transposed the (73) in the second number. Correcting that should produce an equity of 0.119.

[tigerite]

= [ 0.236 * (0.0851601909 + 0.0040140639) ] + [ 0.764 * 0.1284580418 ]
= [ 0.236 * 0.0891742548 ] + 0.1132999928676
= 0.0210451241328 + 0.1132999928676
= 0.1343451170004

Nope, it does not..

[tigerite]

Hang on the second term is + 0.0981419439352, my mistake, thus giving 0.119187068068, yeah fair enough.

Wow, look at all those digits. I closed my spreadsheet that produced 0.119 without saving it, but since there's nothing I like more than crunching the numbers (good thing my wife is a sucker for geeks):

=0.236 * ((0.363 * 0.235) + (0.637 * .006)) + (0.764 * .578 * 0.222)
=0.236 * (0.0853 + 0.00382) + 0.0098
=0.236 * 0.089 + 0.098
=0.021 + 0.098
=0.119

[tigerite]

Yeah, coming back to this again the ranges should be 38%+. That's still huge though!

[curtains]

WOW, cant believe that pushing here isnt non exploitable.

CO almost surely made a mistake when he didn't push.

[fluorescenthippo]

[ QUOTE ]

WOW, cant believe that pushing here isnt non exploitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

me either. can someone explain this to me? if both call you with any two its +EV. if you tell the blinds what you have and they call correctly (25% and 26%) its +EV (barely). but if the SB calls 25% and the BB 100% its -EV...?? what am i missing?

I'd like to see the answer to fluorescenthippo's question.

So was the bottom line that it's -EV against certain ranges? So, what does that mean, only push if the blinds have been a bit tight?

Thanks a ton for the responses. not sure I understand them, but I'm picking through them.